Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
322 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Discussion...

Not a whole lot of changes made this morning from the previous
forecasts. Everything still appears to be on track for a warmer
weekend and a cooler work week coming up.

For today...a stalled boundary over The Heart of the state is
allowing for some light showers across our southern counties.
The showers should continue to be scattered off and on through
the day is those locations. Patchy fog possible as well this
morning. Afternoon temperatures from 87 to 91.

For Saturday and Sunday...western upper ridge will nose into the
deep south suppressing any rainfall to the extreme southeastern
locations of the County Warning Area. Temperatures warm up into the lower and middle
90s. Warm nights too with lows only falling to the lower and middle
70s.

A cold front is still expected to push through the state on Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible as it does so.
Temperatures behind the front still look below average with highs
Tuesday through Friday ranging from the lower to upper 80s.
Assuming the front gets pushed all the way into the northern
Gulf...rain chances next week are pretty much none. There might be
some easterly flow set up towards the end of the forecast period
that could bring in a few showers across eastern Alabama.

88

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

Quite the challenging aviation forecast tonight...with the surface
front draped across southern Alabama. Low clouds and fog will be
the main impacts from 08 to 12z Friday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings
and visible will be possible for the typical foggy locations of keet
... Kanb. Not as confident for fog or low clouds
elsewhere but moisture values will remain high enough at the
surface to warrant at least tempo MVFR except for kbhm. Northern
taf sites will quickly mix out any low clouds or fog after sunrise
Friday morning...while vcsh is still warranted for kmgm and ktoi
near the surface front. VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the taf period with light prevailing winds from the
west and northwest.

56/gdg



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 88 69 92 72 91 / 10 0 10 10 10
Anniston 89 70 92 73 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
Birmingham 89 71 92 74 93 / 10 0 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 91 71 94 73 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
Calera 89 71 92 74 93 / 10 0 10 10 10
Auburn 88 72 92 73 92 / 40 10 10 10 20
Montgomery 91 72 93 74 93 / 40 10 10 10 20
Troy 89 72 92 73 93 / 40 20 20 10 20

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations