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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
344 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Discussion...

Another cold air mass has settled across central Alabama early
this morning...with temperatures at or below freezing area wide.
Skies were generally clear...although satellite imagery and
surface observation showed an area of cloudiness across Georgia that was
trying to push into east Alabama. Those clouds should be overcome
by the low level dry air mass...and mostly sunny conditions should
be expected across the area today. With surface high pressure in
control...dry weather is indicated through Saturday night.

Models are in general agreement on a shortwave trough ejecting
from the southwest states/old Mexico and moving eastward into the
southeast states on Sunday. This shortwave should help to spread
increasing cloudiness across Alabama on Sunday...perhaps with a
few spots of rain moving in Sunday afternoon. Rain chance will
continue to increase Sunday night into Monday as the upper
shortwave passes by.

Long range models suggest that the much of next week will be
unsettled...with moisture overrunning a baroclinic zone along the
Gulf Coast. The general idea is that there will be several waves
of rain in the Monday to Friday time frame...although the models
vary somewhat on the placement and timing of each wave. I
generally tend to dislike going with chance probability of precipitation for several days
in a row...but in this case I think it is warranted.
Fortunately...it looks like the real cold air will have retreated
far enough north so that wintry precipitation will not be an issue.

/61/

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

Some lingering clouds in the east and southeast but improving
conditions for those sites later tonight. The lowest ceilings
will fall in the MVFR range. Winds from the north around 10 kts.

88



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 44 25 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Anniston 45 26 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
Birmingham 44 27 57 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 45 28 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 20
Calera 46 28 58 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Auburn 49 31 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Montgomery 49 29 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Troy 49 31 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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