Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1123 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014
for 06z aviation.
Very dry air in the 850-700mb layer has been persistent this
evening...preventing rain from reaching the ground across the vast
majority of the County Warning Area. Cloud bases remain quite high and the far
southeastern counties have observed some very light rainfall.
Trimmed probability of precipitation significantly for the overnight with a tight gradient
across the southeast part of the County Warning Area. The back edge of middle to
upper-level clouds are entering the northwest counties at the
current time and should clear through the County Warning Area by daybreak. Have
dropped overnight lows a couple of degrees across the western half
as a result.
06z taf discussion.
Cold front has now passed through toi and will continue to clear the
area through 10z. Moisture did increase of the southeast...but was
only able to 0.01 inches of rain at best. Removed the rain from toi
and left in vcsh for the time being although any rain would be
extremely light. Also removed the mention of MVFR ceilings as the
moisture levels just have not been materializing this evening and
the bmx sounding from 00z shows an extreme dry slot just below the
cloud deck of 10kft.
Winds will increase from the northwest at 7-10kts with some
variability to the southwest in the afternoon...before switching
back to the west after 3z in the north and 6 to 8z in the southeast.