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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1229 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

for 18z aviation.


morning update.

No changes made to high temperatures today. With low precipitable water values
across the County Warning Area...will maintain a dry forecast but monitor showers
as they encroach on our northwest border.



Previous discussion...
/issued 418 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

A largely northwest upper level flow over the next 7 days will
likely keep deep Gulf moisture cut off and rain chances to a
minimum. There are a few curiously placed showers just to our
north...but it appears that they are have a tough time getting
much farther south. We'll see how they progress through the
morning and amend to add some small rain chances if later needed.
But right now I think things should stay out of our area.

Otherwise...its really hard to pinpoint anything that will lead to
definitive rain chances over the coming days. There's various
upper level shortwaves that pass through that could cause a brief
window of opportunity for showers or storms here and there through
the weekend.

Models coming into better agreement on the timing of the next
front forecast to move in early next week. This front will also
have a relatively short period of possible associated shower or
storm activity. But the main story will be the cooler and less
humid conditions after its passage.



18z taf discussion.

VFR conditions should continue for the next 24 hours with light
and variable winds and scattered high clouds.


Note: we will begin back with our seasonal issuance of kasn taf
(talladega al) on October 5th at the 00z issuance and it will run
through October 23rd 00z.


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...



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