Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1209 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014
for 06z aviation.
concerning the threat for later this evening.
Continue to watch with some interest in the consolidation upstream
as the multicell cluster has now evolved into a healthy mesoscale convective system. These
storms do have a history of damage and have shown stronger gusts
as they happen near surface stations. Interestingly...this
evolution continues to progress as the storms enter a less
favorable environment further east. The dewpoints are somewhat
lower as you go eastward along the current track. Moisture is
trying to advect northward as the surface low tracks east...but
the recovery has been slow across north central MS and especially
across central Alabama where most dewpoints remain in the middle 50s
despite the increasing southerly flow. Contrast that to the
environment near the MS river at Greenville and Vicksburg where
the dew points remain solidly in the 60s. We should get a good look at a
final forecast as the storms roll into central MS where Greenwood
has significantly lower bl moisture and thus lower instabilities
with a dew point at 57. Likewise...Golden Triangle is at 55. This would
suggest a rapid weakening over the next several hours especially
as the sun GOES down. Having said all that...now that it has
morphed into a more significant mesoscale convective system...it bears watching as it will
be cold pool driven instead of environmentally driven. We will
keep current severe weather potential statement and forecast wording in place as is.
06z taf discussion.
Line of showers and storms now moving through the state. Thunderstorms in the vicinity for
bhm...anb and asn. Better chances at seeing a thunderstorm at eet
and tcl. Showers and storms weakening by the time it hits mgm and
toi so only included vcsh at mgm and nothing at toi. In fact may
see some fog at toi before this works through later in the
morning. Clearing out by 18z and winds calming by 00z.
Note...the National Weather Service is now issuing seasonal
terminal forecasts for the Talladega Municipal Airport (kasn) in
Talladega...Alabama. The forecasts will be issued through at least
may 8th 00z. Due to the limited availability of observations...
kasn taf will have amend not schedule appended to the end of the forecast.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 77 48 82 56 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
Anniston 78 49 83 57 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
Birmingham 79 50 84 60 85 / 10 0 10 0 10
Tuscaloosa 80 49 84 60 84 / 10 0 10 10 20
Calera 79 52 83 61 85 / 10 0 10 10 10
Auburn 79 53 81 60 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
Montgomery 82 54 85 61 87 / 10 0 10 10 10
Troy 83 53 85 60 85 / 10 0 10 10 10