Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1202 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Update...
for 06z aviation.

&&

Discussion...

A widespread freeze and frost is expected across central Alabama
tonight and a freeze warning continues for the entire forecast
area. The temperature at Haleyville has already dropped down to 37
at 9 PM and temperatures there should be in the upper 20s near
sunrise. With strong winds this afternoon...questions remained
about whether winds would decouple tonight. So far...winds have
weakened significantly and gone calm in many locations.
However...since winds have weakened dew points have increased
across a good portion of central Alabama. Regardless...temperatures
are expected to drop down into the upper 20s across the north and
lower 30s across the south. According to the climate record...if
Montgomery gets down to freezing this will be the latest freeze on
record. For more information see the climate section below.
Precautions should be taken to protect any sensitive vegetation.
Even though the record latest freeze will not be broken further to
the north (ie...Birmingham...Tuscaloosa...and anniston) lows
tonight across these areas will still rank in the 90th percentile
as far as late season freezes. For the update...lowered some of
the rural locations across the northwest where temperatures are
already colder than forecast and made some minor tweaks to the
hourly dew points.

05/Massachusetts

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

VFR for the next 24 hours with only the winds as the changing
factor as pressure gradients change with the building of the
surface ridge over the eastern United States. Northerly winds
will stay up at a few locations a tad more than normal for
remainder of the overnight hours. As the ridge shifts on Wednesday
to the east...winds will respond by becoming more
east/southeasterly during the day.

Note...the National Weather Service will be issuing seasonal
terminal forecasts for the Talladega Municipal Airport (kasn) in
Talladega...Alabama. The forecasts will be issued from April 20th
00z through at least may 8th 00z. Due to the limited availability
of observations...kasn taf will have amend not schedule appended to the
end of the forecast.

08/mk

&&

Climate...

Latest freeze on record

Birmingham 4/23/1986
Montgomery 4/13/1940
Tuscaloosa 4/21/1953
Anniston 4/23/1986

Record lows for April 16th

Location temperature year(s)

Birmingham 32 1983, 1962, 1950
Montgomery 36 2008, 1950
Tuscaloosa 31 1950
Anniston 30 1950

05/Massachusetts

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 27 61 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 10 20
Anniston 30 63 35 66 48 / 0 0 0 10 20
Birmingham 31 65 38 67 50 / 0 0 0 10 20
Tuscaloosa 30 66 40 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 30
Calera 32 64 39 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 20
Auburn 31 64 37 67 48 / 0 0 10 10 20
Montgomery 32 66 40 70 53 / 0 0 10 10 30
Troy 30 66 41 69 53 / 0 0 10 10 40

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning until 8 am CDT Wednesday for all of central
Alabama.

&&

$$

05/08