Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
526 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Update...
aviation discussion.

&&

Discussion...

Good to see the sun shine today even though its on the cool side.
Temperatures today just now in the middle to upper 40s north and
lower 50s south.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeastward into
the southeastern states Sunday and Sunday night. Since it is so
quickly on the heals of our current system...there is not a lot of
moisture available with it. 12z trends show decent lift and a
little more quantitative precipitation forecast. The upper levels with this system are very cold
so the potential is there to squeeze out a few rain drops across
the north or perhaps some drizzle. The best chance for any
measurable rain is still in the northeast but did expand the
slight chance across the northern half of the County Warning Area.

Beyond that...things look dry. A few sprinkles possible Thursday
night as another shortwave passes. Still signs of a significant
cool down sometime between 8 to 12 days out.

88

&&

Aviation...
00z taf discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Westerly
winds this evening will continue to diminish with a gradual turn to
the southwest. Forecast guidance overnight is split on whether low
clouds return to the area. There is very weak uplift as low level
winds increase from the southwest early Sunday morning...but do not
see sufficient moisture to mention anything other than a scattered deck at
this time. Only other aviation concern will be gusty southwesterly
winds Sunday afternoon...with gusts up to 18kts.

14

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 30 56 36 43 30 / 0 20 30 10 0
Anniston 32 58 38 45 31 / 0 10 20 10 0
Birmingham 34 58 38 45 33 / 0 20 20 10 0
Tuscaloosa 34 60 38 48 34 / 0 20 10 0 0
Calera 34 58 38 46 33 / 0 10 20 10 0
Auburn 35 57 39 49 33 / 0 0 10 10 0
Montgomery 33 62 40 50 33 / 0 0 10 0 0
Troy 34 62 40 51 34 / 0 0 10 0 0

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations