Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
532 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
for 00z aviation.
Arctic air - one...models - zero. The Arctic air worked in much
quicker and cooled the air column a lot more than any model was
looking at. Thus the additional sleet and snow that was observed.
The overall precipitation has switched to generally one line
stretching northeastward...south of the I-59 corridor. Overall the
precipitation is now working into an airmass that is now above
freezing and will continue to move south and east. For the most
part we will be seeing rain...with mixed sleet pockets through 6
PM. No additional advisories are anticipated at this time.
The big concern now will be the temperatures no longer increasing
any more for the day and then dropping off into the teens and low
20s area wide. There will be likely re-freezing later this
Behind this line...drier air works in for the weekend...with along
an increase in probability of precipitation late afternoon across the far southwest. This
system will be due to an increase in moisture from the south. Will
feel more like Spring as we work into the weekend and into the
first the week. Overall we will see increasing probability of precipitation through middle
00z taf discussion.
Light rain pushing towards mgm and toi should move east of the
area by 04z. Clearing line is into northwest Alabama and used the
18z NAM for timing the ceilings clearing out. North winds continue
overnight...with a few gusts to 20 kts not out of the question the
next couple of hours...generally 10 kts.