Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1006 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014
High pressure has shifted slightly and is over the Middle Atlantic
States...with a wedge of high pressure still over the northeast
part of the state. At the same time...some cirrus has spread
across the area from the southwest from a large scale trough
across the western United States. Shallow low moisture will be
trying to return from the east late tonight. Have added some
patchy freezing fog across the northeast. Do not think fog with be
dense with the higher clouds. For now the cirrus is thin though
and not hindering our cooling. Latest trends are a little cooler
than latest models and grids so have nudged down only a couple of
degrees as the increase in high clouds should slow down the
cooling rate some.
00z taf discussion.
VFR conditions currently at the terminals. With light winds and
mostly clear skies...there will be the chance for some periods of
MVFR visibilities near sunrise. For now...have only included at
kanb and kasn but will reevaluate the early morning fog potential
in the next issuance.
/issued 248 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/
Hope everyone had/is having a merry Christmas. A nice day out
there with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 40s
to middle 50s. Cool again tonight with lows in the 30s and Friday is
a very nice day with afternoon highs near 60.
A longwave trough will amplify over the western Continental U.S. Today and
Friday with bulging ridge building over Cuba and southern Florida.
Middle and upper level southwesterly flow will gradually bring
moisture back to the region with cloud cover returning Friday
evening. A series of impulses rotating through the trough will
track from the western Gulf northeastward. With continued moist
flow and the added lift associated with the shortwaves...rain will
return to central Alabama by middle day Saturday. The weekend
continues to look wet with another one to two inches possible
through Sunday night...especially over the northern half of the
County Warning Area where the best convergence will be near a surface front. Will
continue to mention isolated thunder but there is no severe
The front finally clears the area on Monday...and a few dry or
mostly dry periods are expected to begin the week. Trends from the
12z cycle was to slow down the arrival of the next system until
the second half of Thursday. At this time it would be a cold rain
Thursday evening and Friday morning with the air mass still too warm
for anything frozen. Temperatures next week look seasonable.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 28 58 38 57 49 / 0 10 10 60 90
Anniston 31 60 40 59 52 / 0 0 10 60 100
Birmingham 34 60 43 59 54 / 0 10 10 70 90
Tuscaloosa 33 60 45 60 53 / 0 10 20 90 90
Calera 33 60 44 60 53 / 0 10 10 80 100
Auburn 33 59 44 59 54 / 0 0 10 60 90
Montgomery 33 61 45 63 57 / 0 10 20 90 80
Troy 33 61 46 63 56 / 0 10 20 80 80