Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1153 PM CST Thursday Mar 6 2014
for 06z aviation.
Area of rain is pinwheeling eastward pretty much as planned this
evening. Will maintain categorical probability of precipitation in the east central and
northeast counties through at least the midnight hour.
Temperatures are already dangerously close to forecast lows...and
I think it is prudent to lower lows a couple degrees in some areas
to give a bit more room to drop a couple more degrees.
Otherwise...cloudy skies prevail. Not anticipating any
clearing...but if it does occur then we will have to watch for fog
development later on.
06z taf discussion.
Well the persistence IFR ceilings materialized but were not
covering the entire area. This issuance still advertises IFR
ceilings at most sites overnight with lesser confidence at
bhm/anb. These low ceilings restrictions will also be accompanied
by visible restrictions in br and -dz/-ra under the upper low.
The upper low was spinning right over central Alabama at this
writing. The kicker upper trough will begin pushing the entire
system east and northeast shortly. The latest satellite imagery
already has some clearing skies back in northern Mississippi.
Still believe it will be several hours before the restrictive
ceilings leave the area but will continue the trend of improvement
beginning west to east around sunrise and moving eastward through
18z. By afternoon...most areas will be partly cloudy with no
Winds generally remain 7kts or less through the period. An
easterly component has already started shifting toward the north
in a few spots and this trend will continue. As a weak surface
high builds in on Friday...winds may gain a light westerly
component or go light and variable.
/issued 355 PM CST Thursday Mar 6 2014/
An upper low is spinning over Mississippi and Louisiana this
afternoon. In the lower levels...a wedge of east to northeast
flow between the ridge in New England and the low across the
eastern Gulf pushed drier air into central Alabama this morning.
This allowed some decent evaporative cooling once the rain began.
This along with cloud cover has made for a cold dreary day. Many
areas saw their highs before midday. For tonight...looking at
temperatures lowering some in the west mainly in the evening...
with temperatures after midnight either remaining steady or very
By Friday morning...the surface low should be pushing up the
eastern Atlantic coast...while the upper low trails on its heels
over Georgia and South Carolina. Some lingering wrap around
precipitation will remain possible in the eastern portions of the
state early Friday morning before all of the necessary moisture
moves out. So look for temperatures to be a little warmer as the
precipitation comes to an end and clouds begin to clear out across
the west during the afternoon.
Looking for a break in the activity for Friday afternoon through
Saturday evening as a weak surface ridge builds in over the Gulf
Coast states. We will be in-between systems with a continuing
moderating air mass. With that said...Saturday looks great with
middle 60s to lower 70s. For Saturday night into Sunday a weak
frontal boundary moves through but with limited moisture and only
very low rain chances at this time. Monday looks nice behind the
weak front with dry weather and temperatures a couple of degrees
milder since the system Sunday is not expected to bring a major
surge of cold air with it.
By Monday night...the ridge weakens further and shifts to the
southeast over the eastern Gulf allowing for warmer onshore flow
over the state ahead of our next surface front. There are some
timing difference between the extended models on this system. The
GFS is much faster with the front than the Euro as well as the
strength of the upper low that swings across...with the Euro some
6 to 12 hours slower...and thus slower with ending precipitation and
ushering in the cold air. The Euro looks better for bringing this
colder air down with a more progressive upper flow when it does
move through...but with timing differences will hold off on the
colder air until later and leave some probability of precipitation in through middle
week...with things drying out and cooling off by Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 34 59 38 67 45 / 100 20 0 0 10
Anniston 35 58 38 67 44 / 100 30 0 0 10
Birmingham 36 59 40 67 45 / 100 10 0 0 10
Tuscaloosa 39 61 40 69 45 / 60 0 0 0 10
Calera 36 59 40 68 46 / 90 10 0 0 10
Auburn 34 57 38 67 45 / 100 30 0 0 10
Montgomery 39 59 40 69 48 / 70 10 0 0 10
Troy 37 58 39 70 46 / 60 10 0 0 10