Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1152 PM CST sun Nov 29 2015
for 06z aviation.
Appreciable rain has finally arrived in the northwest counties in
association with a cold front. This front is expected to become
stationary tonight and into tomorrow...and tomorrow should basically
be a repeat of today. Widespread clouds and showers will continue in
a corridor near the front and...temperatures tomorrow should once
again rise well into the 70s south of the low cloud deck.
Monday evening...this initial wave of moisture lifts to the
northeast as the stationary front retrogrades slightly back to
the west. It will quickly be picked up by the next middle level
impulse and surface trough Tuesday morning. As this next front
slowly slides across the area...the rain axis will finally shift
southeastward through midweek...with more persistent rain
spreading south of I-20 by Tuesday night. The front will push
south of the area Wednesday...with drier and cooler air returning
to central Alabama as high pressure builds into the southeastern
Continental U.S.. will keep a low pop in the far southeast as moisture hangs
up ahead of the main trough axis. Once it clears the area...expect
dry conditions areawide for the end of the week.
Although we are looking at an extended period of rainfall for the
northwest...rainfall should be light to moderate with storm totals
through midweek below 3 inches. This should not cause widespread
or significant flooding issues.
06z taf discussion.
No change to the forecast thinking at this time. The cold front
and the lower ceilings are at tcl with a few light showers
passing across the northern half of Alabama. Do not see the
front making much additional progress in our direction so
advancement of MVFR to IFR ceilings should only range from tcl to
bhm but could possibly sneak into anb and eet. Other locations
are expected to remain VFR through the evening. Will continue to
monitor the progression of the front and associated clouds for
Increased rain chances continue across the northwest part of
central Alabama...expanding slowly to near the I-20 corridor this
afternoon. More persistent rains will spread south of I-20 on
Tuesday...with drier conditions expected by Thursday. There are
no fire weather concerns.