Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
245 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Short term...tonight through Monday. 


A drier and cooler air mass has invaded Alabama as an upper trough 
digs southward along the eastern United States. As with most 
intrusions of cool air this late in the Spring...the air mass 
will not stay long as the upper trough quickly moves off the East 
Coast. The drier air mass will allow night-time temperatures to fall 
to well below average values...with some locations across central 
Alabama possibly setting record low temperatures tonight. An upper 
ridge will build eastward from the Southern Plains states over 
the weekend keeping the convection to the west and north of 
Alabama with afternoon temperatures climbing to above average 
readings by Sunday and Monday. 


58/rose 


Long term...Tuesday through Friday. 


An upper trough will dig southward over the western United States 
next week with an upper ridge strengthening over the southeast 
states. Warm middle level temperatures will put a lid on any diurnal 
convection...despite temperatures forecast to reach near 90 
degrees during this period. Humidity levels will also be on the 
increase...resulting in middle Summer like conditions. 


58/rose 


&& 


Aviation... 
18z taf discussion. 


Post frontal/fair weather stratocu deck mainly eroded...and with 
no ceiling or visibility restrictions expected next 24 
hours...only aviation concern today will be busty/breezy north 
winds this afternoon with crosswind/runway issues. Northerly winds 
should remain steady at or just above 10kts with gusts to around 
20 knots at times for most terminals this afternoon...with some 
direction variability either side of 360 depending on location. 
Expect winds to subside as sunset approaches this evening. Clear 
skies and light north-northeast to NE winds expected overnight tonight. Clear 
skies continue through the morning tomorrow...with winds becoming 
more easterly through the day. 


02/jd 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 46 78 46 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Anniston 46 80 48 83 56 / 0 0 10 10 10 
Birmingham 49 81 51 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 10 
Tuscaloosa 48 83 50 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Calera 49 82 50 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Auburn 49 80 49 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Montgomery 51 84 52 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Troy 47 83 49 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$