Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1103 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014
Lots of sunshine evident from satellite with only a few thin clouds
across the northern portions of the state...with near calm to light
southerly winds present. As a result...we are not having any warming
issues as we were having yesterday across the southeast counties.
Anywhere from 67-71 degrees was noted across central Alabama at 15z
so a fairly low spread. With daytime heating progressing with little
hindrance...raised daytime highs in the grids just a tad to account.
Only minor rain chances remain during the late afternoon across the
far northwest. Chances will increase tonight as the system moves
closer...but the best chances should hold off until the daytime on
Tuesday when the front arrives.
12z taf discussion.
Local fog with visibilities below 3sm has formed at kmgm and ktoi. The fog
is very shallow and should burn off by 13z. VFR conds expected
through the period. Light and variable surface winds through 15z will become south
around 5kts and gradually SW by 00z as a surface front approaches the
area. Forecast models show a lack of low level Gulf moisture ahead
of surface front...and ecpect ceilings to remain above 3000ft. Scattered showers
will develop after 03z across north Alabama.
Note...the National Weather Service is now issuing seasonal
terminal forecasts for the Talladega Municipal Airport (kasn) in
Talladega...Alabama. The forecasts will be issued through at least
may 8th 00z. Due to the limited availability of observations...
kasn taf will have amend not schedule appended to the end of the forecast.
/issued 421 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014/
Another very calm morning out there over central Alabama as surface
high pressure is maintaining control of the current weather pattern.
The day today will start out very similar to yesterday...with
plentiful sunshine and temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s
areawide. We'll start to see increasing high clouds through noon
today as a shortwave passes off to our north over the Ohio Valley
this afternoon. The upper trough over the Southern Plains will then
push eastward allowing for enough lift to possibly trigger some
isolated showers across our northwest counties. Looking at regional
radar...echoes are showing up right along the Mississippi River
Delta in western Mississippi and western Tennessee at this time. No
reports of any rain on the metar observation though...as dewpoints are
remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Although it won't be out of
the question to see a few raindrops across our far northwest
counties late this afternoon...most locations should remain dry.
Shower activity will increase overnight tonight through the morning
on Tuesday as the trough axis swings through along with a surface
In terms of the forecast for Tuesday...still no change in what we've
been thinking over the past few days. We'll have some instability to
work with out ahead of the front as dewpoints rise into the low to
middle 60s. We just won't have the upper support and shear necessary to
sustain updrafts. Therefore the storms that develop will be very
pulse-like in nature. If we do see any stronger storms...they could
produce some small hail with cold temperatures aloft and gusty
winds...but that's all that we'll highlight at this time. We're
still looking at fairly good coverage of showers and storms across
central Alabama Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
afternoon...and likely probability of precipitation still appear valid. Once the sun GOES
down...the showers and storms will decrease in coverage and
intensity fairly quickly. We should be free of any activity
shortly after midnight Tuesday night.
Wednesday looks to be a very nice day with dry air filtering in from
the north and temperatures ranging from the middle 70s for northern counties
to the lower 80s south. Tranquil weather will continue through
Thursday with an upper ridge in control until another shortwave
traversing from west to east across the country moves in early
Friday morning. A surface front tries to make it southward into the
Tennessee Valley Friday morning...but with little upper support it's
going to be tough to get the front through the County Warning Area. We'll continue
to forecast a very weak front getting close to the area then
stalling out just to our north. With the weak front in the
area...will continue to highlight chance probability of precipitation across the northern
half of central Alabama on Friday then slight chance probability of precipitation through
Looking way out in time through the early portion of next
week...long-range guidance is hinting at a big pattern change across
the country with a very strong Pacific jet stream entering into the
western Continental U.S.. the guidance suite is having a tough time resolving
crucial upper level features. Those features will determine what
impacts will be felt across the country as the Pacific system ejects
eastward into the Southern Plains. We'll have to watch how guidance
trends evolve over the next few days as we could be looking at very
active weather off to our west in the Southern Plains that could
translate our direction by next Monday and Tuesday. Stay tuned.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 79 60 74 48 77 / 10 30 70 10 0
Anniston 79 60 74 49 78 / 0 20 70 10 0
Birmingham 80 61 75 49 77 / 10 20 70 10 0
Tuscaloosa 80 62 77 51 78 / 10 20 70 10 0
Calera 79 61 75 51 78 / 0 20 70 20 0
Auburn 78 60 75 54 78 / 0 10 60 20 0
Montgomery 80 61 78 56 80 / 0 10 60 20 0
Troy 80 61 78 58 79 / 0 10 60 20 0