Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
615 am CDT Friday may 22 2015

Update...
for 12z aviation.

&&

Discussion...

Much cooler and drier air has filtered into central Alabama early
this morning. The Post-frontal stratus clouds that lingered much
longer than we anticipated have finally dissipated and only high
cirrus in the westerly upper level flow remain. A very pleasant late
Spring day is on tap for central Alabama with dewpoints expected to
drop down into the 40s and lower 50s. The dry air will continue to be
advected southward in the northerly surface flow associated with
the 1024mb ridge centered over southern Missouri. Low level
thicknesses today are supportive of middle 70s for the northern half
and upper 70s to lower 80s for the southern half of central
Alabama. In other words...perfect conditions for those that have
outdoor plans to start off your Memorial Day weekend. Upper
heights rise quickly by Saturday which will allow much warmer
afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Also...the surface ridge to our
north will push eastward into the western Atlantic. That will
bring back southerly surface flow and quickly increase surface
dewpoints by Sunday.

We're still looking at a very moist and unsettled pattern coming up
for all of next week as the upper level flow becomes southwesterly
across the southeast states. The upper ridge will become parked over
the western Atlantic...while the trough over the western Continental U.S. Tries
to infringe upon the western extent of the ridge over our neck of
the Woods. In return we'll get scattered to numerous showers and
storms each day as upper disturbances pass over the region. The
activity will be highly diurnally driven in nature and not
everyone is going to see widespread rainfall. However...those that
do see rainfall will see heavy downpours with precipitable waters of 1.7 to 1.8
inches (over the 90th percentile of normal for this time of the
year). Confidence has increased in the overall coverage of
convective activity to warrant raising probability of precipitation to likely for much of
the area both on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Scattered
showers and storms will remain possible each day through the
remainder of the week with the unsettled upper level pattern
continuing.

56/gdg



&&

Aviation...
12z taf discussion.

VFR conditions have returned and will remain that way for the next
24 hours and beyond.

16

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 76 52 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Anniston 78 55 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
Birmingham 76 57 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 10
Tuscaloosa 78 57 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 10 30
Calera 78 56 84 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
Auburn 79 59 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Montgomery 82 60 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 10
Troy 82 59 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations