Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
628 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014
for 00z aviation.
Short term...tonight through Friday night.
High pressure will continue to dominate tonight and Friday...but
the air mass will slowly moisten during this period as low level
Atlantic moisture advects into the region. Another chilly night
on tap tonight as temperatures fall into the 40s. A few locations
across east Alabama may fall into the middle 30s...but most areas
will stay well above freezing. Cumulus clouds will spread into
southeast Alabama late tonight and spread northwest during the day
Thursday. The NAM model does show some showers developing across
West Alabama along the leading edge of a wedge front...but it is
an outlier and will keep rain free conditions in the forecast for
Thursday. By Thursday night...an digging short wave trough will push
into the Southern Plains states and pull Gulf moisture northward.
Showers will increase across South Alabama after midnight Thursday
night as the short wave trough approaches the Mississippi River.
Showers will increase in coverage during the day Friday as the
short wave trough shifts eastward. The models are in fairly good
agreement in developing an mesoscale convective system off the NE Florida coast and
tracking it northeast into southern Georgia Friday night. In this
scenario...the best chances for rain will be across the southeast
counties...and raised rain chances slightly for the southeast
counties for Friday night. Due to a persistent easterly low level
flow...the air mass remains fairly stable on Friday and Friday
night...and removed thunderstorm wording and mentioned only
showers. High temperatures the next few days will be below average
due to easterly flow along with the clouds and rain on Friday.
Long term...Saturday through Wednesday.
It still looks like a rain free weekend across central Alabama as
an upper ridge builds over the southeast states. Temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s on Saturday and lower 80s by Sunday. The
GFS model has backed off the rain chances Sunday and Monday...and
is now more in line with the slower and drier European model (ecmwf) and Canadian
models. Similar to the previous system...a short wave trough will
move into the Southern Plains and track eastward towards Alabama.
An upper low off the Georgia coast will hinder the return flow of
Gulf moisture into the central Gulf Coast region...and the models
are not showing much quantitative precipitation forecast as the short wave trough moves across the
area. It now looks like Tuesday may be the day with the highest
coverage of rainfall. Delaware to the lack of return flow..surface
dewpoints are forecast to stay below 60 degrees...so any storms
should stay below severe limits...and even thunderstorm chances
are not that high. The rain should move out of the area Tuesday
night as the short wave trough pushes out of the area.
00z taf discussion.
VFR conditions expected throughout the taf cycle. Clear skies and
light easterly to southeasterly winds are expected overnight.
Ceilings will be near MVFR tomorrow morning at kmgm and ktoi but
have left VFR for now. Winds increase over 7 kts tomorrow morning
with some gusts up to 15-20 kts from the east and southeast
Note...the National Weather Service will be issuing seasonal
terminal forecasts for the Talladega Municipal Airport (kasn) in
Talladega...Alabama. The forecasts will be issued from April 20th
00z through at least may 8th 00z. Due to the limited availability
of observations...kasn taf will have amend not schedule appended to the
end of the forecast.