Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1149 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014
for 06z aviation.
Some light echoes on the radar showing up between 8k and 12k. None
of this should be reaching the ground and this weak area of lift
should pass on to the east in the next few hours. The frontal
boundary just to the northwest of the state will slide into
central Alabama tomorrow. The radar returns currently along the
boundary are also high based and not seeing anything on the
surface observation at this time. So...did not make any adjustments to the
forecast other than minor hourly tweaks. Updates are out.
06z taf discussion.
Kept the trend of a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. The latest
water vapor imagery has a large positive tilt trough approaching
central Alabama with southwest flow aloft. This flow was allowing
plenty of middle and upper level cloudiness to stream into the
region. Have ceilings in the 9-12k feet range overnight. A surface
cold front moves slowly southward across central Alabama through
Sunday and gradually dissipates south. As the front moves
across...the ceilings should lower some generally onto the 5-7k feet
range. The deeper moisture seems to split the state east and west.
Winds will be calm to light south southwest shifting to northwest
near the front. Winds may take on a northeast component during the
morning hours but will swing back to the west north west by
afternoon. Winds also generally remain 7 kts or less.
Finally...the radar displays were sending returns back from
central Tennessee to the Gulf Coast. Have not seen any reports of
this activity reaching the ground south. A few locations were
reporting some light rain near the front north. Most of these
reports were not measuring. The 00z bmx sounding had a good dry
layer and this will inhibit most precipitation from reaching the
surface...but expect virga aloft.
/issued 227 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014/
A beautiful day across central Alabama today with sunny skies and
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s currently across the area.
The weather pattern will remain rather benign over the next 7 days.
Usually the beginning to middle parts of March are rather active
with either some type of winter or severe weather threat but at
current mention no such threats exists over the coming week.
The upper level flow currently over the southeast is zonal with a
positively tilted trough noted across the Central Plains stretching
southwestward into the Desert Southwest. At the surface...a weak
cold front stretches across the Ohio River valley southward into
eastern Texas. In addition...a weak surface low is present along the
frontal boundary in eastern Texas. The current radar imagery
indicates an area of showers north of the boundary in
Oklahoma...Kansas and Missouri. The southern portion of the trough
is forecast to cut off...while further to the north the trough races
across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. The front will
move into the forecast area late tonight but with limited upper
level support and moisture...expect the forecast area will remain
dry. The front looks to lose definition across the southeast and
eventually wash out sometime overnight tonight or into the day
tomorrow. Models have really backed off on any precipitation during
the overnight and on Sunday. Additionally...the atmospheric profile
is not too saturated and upper level support is
weak...therefore...went ahead and removed any mention of precipitation
for tonight or Sunday. Expect a few more clouds during the overnight
hours tonight and into Sunday with high temperatures a couple of
degrees cooler but other than this...there will be no effects from
the front. Temperatures continue to rise on Monday with
southwesterly winds advecting in warmer air. Expect highs will climb
up into the low to middle 70s across the area.
The next chance for widespread precipitation will come on Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The closed upper level low will pivot across
southern Texas and northern Mexico on Tuesday. Southwesterly flow
aloft will finally advect in some deeper moisture. Expect rain with
the system will spread from southwest to northeast. The only real
concern is that the widespread precipitation along the Gulf could cut
off some of the deeper moisture reaching northern portions of the
forecast area. For now...have kept probability of precipitation in the high chance category
due to this uncertainty. A highly amplified trough diving in from
the northwest will bring a cold front through the area on Wednesday
and temperatures will take a noticeable down turn. Cold air advection
behind the front is not too bad and expect temperatures on Thursday
and Friday morning across the northern half of central Alabama will
be near the freezing mark. Temperatures begin to moderate some next
week as upper level heights increase with the deep trough exiting to
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 45 66 45 71 50 / 10 10 0 10 10
Anniston 46 68 46 72 52 / 10 10 0 0 10
Birmingham 48 68 48 72 53 / 10 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 46 70 46 74 50 / 10 10 0 10 10
Calera 49 69 49 73 52 / 10 10 10 10 10
Auburn 47 69 50 73 53 / 0 10 0 0 10
Montgomery 48 72 50 76 54 / 0 10 0 0 10
Troy 47 72 51 76 53 / 10 10 10 0 10