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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
319 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Discussion...

A weakness at 500mb over the lower Mississippi Valley region will
begin to shift eastward today. Models have come into better
agreement and indicate this feature will move across our area on
Thursday and combine with a trough over the Carolinas on Friday.
Eventually the trough to our east will shift westward under the
envelope of a sprawling upper-level ridge across the northeast
U.S. And southeast Canada. The weak but large upper-low may
become nearly stationary across our forecast early next week.

Only isolated showers and storms are expected through Friday with
perhaps the southern part of the area being favored due to higher
precipitable water values. Rain chances should increase for the weekend
especially across the east and southeast part of the County Warning Area as the
upper-low shifts westward. The upper-low will also bring cooler
afternoon highs to the region...and diurnally-driven convection
may continue into early next week if the upper trough hangs around
as models suggest.

87/Grantham

&&

Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Calm or
light and variable winds overnight. Light winds on Wednesday from
the north. MVFR br has already set up at eet so added in a temperature
after 10z for IFR as well as anb. Otherwise tempo for MVFR br at
tcl. Dewpoint depression still high at toi and mgm so did not
include here but will need to monitor.

16

&&

Fire weather...

Isolated showers and storms are expected through Friday with
higher rain chances over the weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical threshold values. No fire weather concerns are expected
at this time.

87

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 89 69 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
Anniston 89 71 90 70 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
Birmingham 90 73 90 72 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
Tuscaloosa 93 73 93 73 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
Calera 90 73 89 72 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
Auburn 90 73 89 71 90 / 20 10 30 20 30
Montgomery 94 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 30 20 30
Troy 93 73 91 70 93 / 20 10 30 20 30

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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