Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
504 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
Beautiful night for late July! Currently a surface high pressure
ridge stretches down the central part of the U.S. Into the
southeast U.S. And a stalled front remains along the northern Gulf
into central Florida. With the surface ridge and northwest flow
aloft...cooler drier air has allowed for many records to be
broken for low temperatures...with a little to go before sunrise
still even with a few wispy high clouds around noted on satellite.
Daytime temperatures today will be similar to yesterday...maybe a
degree higher but still very nice.
By Thursday...still looking for the surface ridge to slowly weaken
allowing a surface low along the old frontal boundary in Florida
to begin to push back into Alabama as we move into the weekend
into the first part of next week...maybe a little slower initially
so only slight chance probability of precipitation Thursday afternoon are expected in the
west. Temperatures should respond by going back up in as the
cooler flow is cut off with warmest readings in the southeast.
Greater cloud cover in the west/north could help hold off some of
the warmer readings for Thursday. The best rain chances should
hold off until Friday into the weekend as the surface low
retrogrades and interacts with upper shortwaves moving through the
base initially of the stagnant upper low pressure trough over
eastern Canada. The upper trough is expected to dig further across
the eastern U.S. As we progress through the weekend.
The main upper low weakens and pulls off the eastern Canadian
coast into the Atlantic Sunday into Monday...but leaves a piece
of energy behind it with a shortwave trough over the deep south
for Monday. This trough looks to continue to weaken as we move
into middle of next week without the help of the main trough to
enhance it and the upper overall flow becomes weak. However...
there remains some disagreement in the strength of this trough and
if it is squeezed out by the building upper ridge across the
western u... leads to some confidence factors for probability of precipitation.
Have tapered probability of precipitation down some. Nonetheless...still anticipate that
we should begin to transition back to Summer time diurnally
influenced convective activity with temperatures moderating back
for the first half of next week.
06z taf discussion.
Clear skies with northerly surface winds around 5 kts overnight
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 85 63 84 67 81 / 0 10 10 20 40
Anniston 83 63 84 68 81 / 0 10 10 20 50
Birmingham 85 64 85 69 83 / 0 10 10 20 40
Tuscaloosa 86 65 85 68 85 / 0 10 20 20 40
Calera 85 65 86 69 84 / 0 10 10 20 40
Auburn 86 65 88 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 50
Montgomery 88 65 91 71 88 / 0 10 10 20 40
Troy 87 63 90 70 87 / 0 0 10 20 40