Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
637 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015
for 12z aviation.
A decent variation in dewpoints this morning across central
Alabama...locations near the I-85 corridor are still in the muggy
70s with a few locations in the northeast in the much more pleasant
upper 50s. Dewpoints have increased in a few locations with the
boundary layer decoupling tonight. Current water vapor imagery and
rap upper air analysis indicates two prominent features...an upper
level ridge across the western Continental U.S. With a longwave trough across
eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. At the
surface...the front is now along the Gulf Coast but as mentioned
earlier...low level moisture remains in place across southeastern
portions of the area. Last nights 00z bmx sounding observed 0.74
inches of precipitable water which is still well below normal for this time of year
and expect these conditions will continue over the next couple of
days. Precipitable water values will remain much below normal today...but a few
afternoon showers and storms will be possible across southeastern
portions of central Alabama where moisture is a bit more elevated
closer to the front.
Upper level heights will begin to increase early in the work week
and high temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 90s. Moisture
will return to the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with southerly
flow expected. Precipitable water values will increase into the 1.5-2.0 inch range
with precipitation chances returning to the forecast on Wednesday.
Troughs embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will continue to
dive further to the south late in the week as the upper level
pattern becomes more amplified. Therefore...have increased probability of precipitation in
the extended portion of the forecast and have lowered high
temperatures during this time period as well to account for the
higher precipitation chances.
12z taf discussion.
VFR conds through the period. A stalled out frontal boundary was
located between kmgm and ktoi. An isolated storm possible along
the boundary between 18z and 00z. North to northeast winds 5-10
knots becoming calm by 01z.
Dry conditions are expected across most of the area over the
weekend...except for a few showers or storms along and south of
I-85. Minimum relative humidity values through Tuesday will be in the 25-35
percent range but expect winds will be well below criteria during
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 95 66 95 69 97 / 0 0 10 0 10
Anniston 94 66 94 69 96 / 10 0 10 0 10
Birmingham 95 70 95 72 97 / 0 0 10 0 10
Tuscaloosa 97 69 98 72 99 / 0 0 10 0 10
Calera 94 67 94 66 95 / 10 0 10 0 10
Auburn 93 72 94 72 96 / 10 10 10 0 10
Montgomery 97 72 97 72 98 / 10 10 10 0 10
Troy 96 70 96 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 10