Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1032 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Lots of features to talk about this morning across the
southeast...as the pesky west-northwest flow aloft continues.
Thankfully we're not talking about the widespread showers and
storms like we've seen the past several days...but forecast complications
thanks to very subtle mesoscale features will continue. Based on
surface analysis over the last hour...a surface trough is present
across Mississippi moving eastward. Showers and storms have
developed along the trough and are slowly moving eastward. The
high-res WRF arw seems to be the only mesoscale guidance that has
resolved the trough in a decent fashion...expanding the showers
and storms eastward into central Alabama.
Elsewhere...a shortwave was noted on visible satellite moving
northeastward out of north Georgia. What appears to be an mesoscale convective vortex was
also noted across southwest Georgia heading eastward. Lots of
mesoscale boundaries were also visible generally along and east of
I-65 this morning which will help trigger some convective activity
One other factor that's currently in play is surface ridging
across southern Alabama and slightly drier dewpoints in the middle
and upper 60s. The ridging and drier air present might inhibit
convective development at least early on today. We don't have any
sounding data this morning due to an equipment failure...but
looking at the kjan (jackson, ms) radiosonde observation it indicates plenty of
instability/moisture with some dry air aloft which would increase
the wet microburst potential. We'll watch that closely as we go
into the afternoon across our western counties.
So...with all that in mind i've increased probability of precipitation across the western
counties to 50 with the trough approaching...and chance probability of precipitation
elsewhere across central Alabama with the mesoscale boundaries
floating around. Temperatures remain on track...but will of course
be adjusted accordingly where areas of showers and storms develop
and propagate through the afternoon. Forecast updates are already
12z taf discussion.
Low clouds/fog to play havoc on the forecast for the next 2 to 4
hours. Look for IFR/MVFR conditions until it clears. Generally VFR
after 15 to 16z at all sites as high pressure begins to build back
into the area. A few showers/storms possible this afternoon but
exact timing and placement too low of confidence to include even a
thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time.
Note: eet sensor has had errors this morning and only ceiling is
available. Will add in amend not schedule until it can be repaired.
The weather pattern during the upcoming week will be more typical
of Summer across central Alabama. Daytime temperatures will become
warmer and rain chances will decrease somewhat as an upper ridge
builds over the southeast states.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 86 70 91 71 91 / 30 10 20 20 20
Anniston 86 70 90 71 91 / 30 10 20 20 20
Birmingham 87 72 91 73 92 / 30 10 20 20 20
Tuscaloosa 89 73 93 74 93 / 50 10 20 20 20
Calera 86 71 91 73 91 / 30 10 20 20 20
Auburn 85 70 89 72 90 / 30 10 20 20 20
Montgomery 88 72 93 73 93 / 30 10 20 20 20
Troy 89 70 92 71 94 / 30 10 20 20 20