Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
528 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016
for 12z aviation.
A short wave trough currently over East Texas will track southeast
today and produce some middle to high level clouds across Alabama.
Highs today will near fridays values with 50s areawide. Slightly
warmer on Sunday due to warm air advection ahead of the next cold
front. A deepening upper low over the Great Lakes region early
next week will dig southward and bring a shot of very cold air
into Alabama Monday through Wednesday. There will not really be a
distinct cold front with this system...more like a gradual cool
down as the upper heights fall. The coldest day of the period
will be on Tuesday.
There will be several waves of moisture rotating around the
southern end of the upper low. The first wave will arrive late
Sunday night and into Monday morning. Low level thickness profiles
show temperatures too warm for any frozen precipitation through
Monday morning. Strong cold air advection throughout the day
Monday will cause surface temperatures to fall into the upper 30s
across the far northern counties late Monday afternoon...and there
could be a transition to a rain/snow mixture. The air mass should
be cold enough Monday night and Tuesday for the precipitation to
fall as light snow. Any precipitation amounts will be light...and
no accumulations forecast at this time. Any residual moisture will
lift out of the area Tuesday night.
The cold core upper low will quickly open up into a trough and shift
into the Atlantic. The upper flow will become more zonal across
the central Gulf Coast and temperatures will moderate quickly with
highs back into the 60s by Friday.
12z taf discussion.
Upper level short wave will shift over the area today with
ceilings roughly around 15k. Very light winds with high pressure
at the surface. VFR conditions.
No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Slightly more
humid conditions expected over the weekend...with afternoon relative humidity
values remaining above 30 percent. No rain expected through
Sunday. Light rain chances return late Sunday night and Monday
across north Alabama.