Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
305 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
Looking at ongoing conditions across central Alabama...a middle level
shortwave has helped spark a line of showers and thunderstorms just
south of the slow moving cold front across the far southeastern
counties. Not expecting any severe weather with this activity...just
brief heavy rain and lightning. Elsewhere...dry air continues to
slowly filter in behind the boundary. It's not a significant drying
as dew points have fallen into the middle/upper 60s as compared to the
low 70s...but nonetheless it does make it feel just a little more
bearable outside.
For tonight...could still see an isolated shower or two linger into the
evening hours mainly south of I-85. With some residual moisture
still in place just behind the front...patchy fog and/or some low
clouds could redevelop across the southeast after midnight.
Overnight temperatures should generally be a couple degrees cooler than
last night with lows in the middle 60s north to around 70 south. Weak
troughing will remain over the eastern Continental U.S. On Thursday and there
could be just enough moisture in place for some isolated afternoon convection.
Therefore will keep slight chance probability of precipitation area wide for Thursday.
Overall pattern remains largely unchanged through the remainder of the
forecast period. Models still indicate a weak area of low pressure
in the upper levels over the central Gulf Coast by Friday. This
weakness...between the ridge in Texas and the western Atlantic
ridge...is prognosticated to reside over the area through at least the
weekend. This combined with southeasterly surface flow will mean
increased rain chances in the Friday-sun timeframe. As we move into
early next week...rain chances will continue as surface flow becomes
more southerly. Rain/cloud cover will keep temperatures at or just below
normal.
19
&&
Aviation...
18z taf discussion.
A surface front was located between keet and kmgm. The front should
stall out before it reaches kmgm. Light north winds will prevail
north of the front along with scattered cumulus. South of the
frontal boundary...MVFR ceilings will continue through the
afternoon...but likely become scattered by 22z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the front...but should dissipate by 22z.
There will be plenty of low level moisture overnight...even north
of the surface front. Will add MVFR fog to ktcl...kmgm...and ktoi
between 09z and 12z.
58/rose
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 65 89 65 87 65 / 10 20 20 20 20
Anniston 67 89 68 87 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
Birmingham 67 89 69 88 69 / 10 20 20 20 20
Tuscaloosa 67 92 69 90 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Calera 67 89 69 87 70 / 10 20 20 30 20
Auburn 69 87 68 87 68 / 20 30 20 40 20
Montgomery 69 91 71 90 72 / 20 30 20 40 20
Troy 69 90 70 89 71 / 20 40 20 40 20
&&
Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
