Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
850 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Current forecast on track. Latest model runs bring showers into
central Alabama during the day Tuesday as a short wave trough over
south Texas lifts quickly northeast.
00z taf discussion.
Expecting very similar conditions to last night. Some patchy br in
the morning near sunrise as temperatures drop into the lower 50s.
Winds light west to northwest around 5 kts.
/issued 629 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014/
It is hard to come by much better weather days than today with
temperatures currently in the upper 60s and low 70s.. the only
problem may be that westerly winds are strong in a few locations
across the area but they should weaken near sunset. The current
upper level pattern indicates a weak ridge across the forecast area
that has helped provide this beautiful day. Additionally...a closed
low is currently pivoting across northern Mexico and will provide
that area a good chance for showers during the middle part of the
week. As the low moves into the northwestern Gulf of a Mexico...winds
throughout the column will take on more of a southwesterly direction.
This flow will help advect moisture into the area. However...with a
fairly dry atmosphere it will take some time to saturate the column.
With southwesterly flow in the low levels...it looks as though there
could be some patchy fog tonight around sunrise with dewpoints
increasing and low temperatures only dropping down into the upper
40s to middle 50s.
The next chance for rain will move into the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Upper level anticyclonic flow ahead of the closed low
should keep precipitation from quickly spreading northeastward on
Tuesday. Expect locations north of I-20 and east of I-65 will stay
dry much of the day. The closed low will transition to more of an
open wave. It will track along the la/MA/al Gulf Coast with moisture
spreading from southwest to northeast. Models have been consistent
with this feature...therefore...have increased probability of precipitation to the definite
category for Tuesday night. There is still some concern that
moisture along the Gulf Coast could cut off precipitation from moving
further northward into central Alabama. However...at the same time
an upper level trough will be moving across the Central Plains into
the Ohio River valley that will provide some additional lift further
to the north. Regardless...it looks as though most of the County Warning Area will
see some rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday with amounts
generally less then half an inch. The cold front will move through
the area on Wednesday with impressive cold air advection moving in
quickly behind the front. Some of the models have enough instability
on Wednesday for the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms. At
this time...confidence is too low to add the mention of thunder with
the forcing and instability along the front being rather weak.
However...the surface pressure gradient will be strong enough for
some winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour on Wednesday and an advisory may become
Cold air will return late in the week behind the front. 850 mb
temperatures drop to -5 to -8 degrees celsius behind the front with
strong northerly winds. Expect temperatures will drop down to below
freezing across the northern half or so of the County Warning Area on Thursday and
Friday morning. Winds may stay up a bit for a widespread frost on
Thursday morning but winds will die down by Friday with a widespread
frost likely. If you have any tender vegetation just keep this in
mind for later this week. Temperatures begin to moderate some over
the weekend with our next chance of rain coming Saturday into
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 47 75 57 61 30 / 0 20 60 60 0
Anniston 48 76 57 64 30 / 0 20 80 60 0
Birmingham 54 75 58 62 29 / 0 20 60 60 0
Tuscaloosa 52 76 57 62 33 / 0 30 60 40 0
Calera 53 75 58 63 31 / 0 30 70 50 0
Auburn 54 76 57 69 30 / 0 20 80 50 0
Montgomery 54 78 58 71 33 / 0 40 80 40 0
Troy 52 77 58 72 33 / 0 40 80 40 0