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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 334 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

The main forecast issue will be low clouds and precipitation
associated with the frontal boundary across western North Dakota.
This will also impact overnight lows and forecast highs Monday.

Utilized a general blend as models are in reasonable agreement
through the short term.

Frontal boundary remains draped across central North Dakota from
just east of Minot to just west of Bismarck. Temperatures in the
60s over the James River Valley under mostly sunny skies. Along
and to the west of the front temperatures remained in the middle 40s
to middle 50s. Widespread light rain was falling over southwest North
Dakota and slowly pushing north.

For late this afternoon and tonight...rain will continue to push
north across western North Dakota...and will eventually start to
spread east into the north central later this evening and
overnight as shortwave energy lifting north through western North
Dakota merges with a shortwave trough that finally pushes into
northwest North Dakota toward morning. This northern stream trough
will be the boost to finally push the cold front through the
forecast area...albeit slowly. Moisture pooling along and ahead of
the front tonight should keep temperatures mild with readings in
the middle 40s. Also added a mention of patchy fog for this area and
to the west where rain will be falling.

On Monday the cold front makes its way into northeast through
south central North Dakota. Clouds and greatest rain chances are
expected to move from Minot to Dickinson in the morning...to
around Bottineau and Rugby...southwest to Bismarck around midday
and into the James River Valley by early evening. With this
scenario temperatures will likely be coldest with low to middle 50
readings (maybe even some 40s like we are seeing today in the
southwest) from around Bottineau and Rolette southwest to
Bismarck and Hettinger. Warmer again Monday in the James River
Valley with highs in the 60s...and high in the middle to upper 50s
northwest.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 334 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Exiting northern stream shortwave trough Monday night across the
James River Valley will result in rain showers ending in the
southeast between 06z-12z Tuesday. A clear sky will develop from
northwest to southeast Monday night...behind the shortwave and in
advance of a 700mb-500mb ridge. This ridge will crest across central
North Dakota Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions with warming
temperatures can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday...especially
Wednesday as southerly winds and low level warm advection take firm
control. Afternoon highs will reach into the 70s Wednesday across
all of western and central North Dakota. After Wednesday...the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) exhibit timing differences with successive shortwaves and
associated surface features. The first shortwave and cold front is
slated to sweep through Thursday...but the GFS already has it east
of the James River Valley by 00z Friday...whereas yesterdays GFS
model run was about 12hrs slower. The 12z Canadian Gem/European model (ecmwf) show a
slower solution...much like what the GFS was advertising yesterday.
Thus...with a slower solution...destabilization and thunderstorms
remain a concern Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night
along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Will need to monitor
this. Thereafter...Friday through Sunday...a more progressive/zonal
flow develops through the weekend with periodic chances for showers
and possible thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 334 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

A slow moving cold front will provide the focus for MVFR-IFR
ceilings and visibilities in rain and areas of fog through Monday.
Lower ceilings and visibilities are expected over kdik and kisn
this evening and spreading into kmot later tonight. And then
eventually moving east into kbis late tonight through Monday. To
the east of the front...kjms will remain VFR through the 18z taf
period.

&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...twh
long term...Kansas
aviation...twh

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