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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1205 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Update...
issued at 1205 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

No changes made...forecast is on track.

Update issued at 931 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

The forecast for tonight remains on track with weak high pressure
in place. No changes other than to blend to observed trends
through 2 UTC.

Update issued at 635 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

No significant changes with this forecast update other than to
blend to observed trends through 23 UTC. Expecting a quiet evening
and overnight behind the cold front across north central Minnesota
through eastern South Dakota.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Baroclinic zone and associated jet aloft supportive of a band of
showers that latest trends suggest will move into the southern James
River Valley this afternoon and evening. Will add slight chance of
showers this afternoon through the middle evening across the southern
James River Valley. Otherwise no significant concerns for the short
term period with clear skies west and clearing skies east late
this evening. Winds quickly diminishing after 7 PM tonight.

On Tuesday...skies should be sunny with temperatures returning to
the 80s most areas. We've been running with a warm bias of 1 to 2
degrees in the past few days so opted to trim maximum temperatures from
current guidance and keep highs below 90.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

A broad upper level trough over the Pacific northwest will bring
changes to North Dakota weather.

Southwest flow aloft will dominate through the extended...as the
upper level trough over the Pacific northwest digs and slowly
propagates eastward...highlighted well within the current ensemble
and deterministic models.

A shortwave and associated chances for showers and thunderstorms are
projected for central and eastern areas Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Although the best chances for precipitation will be Friday
through Sunday...as the upper level low pushes into the northern
plains. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast from the weather prediction center ranges from
roughly half an inch in the southwest to two inches in the
northeast.

Above average temperatures persist into Friday with seasonal
conditions commencing thereafter.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1205 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

VFR conditions expected through the 06z taf period in western and
central North Dakota.

&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...ac
short term...warm air advection
long term...ac
aviation...ac

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