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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
246 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

The latest water vapor imagery details an upper low circulating
over central Manitoba. An elongated 100kt jet streak stretched
north to south in central Saskatchewan was moving toward the base
of the above mentioned trough. A potent surface cold front arching
into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will shift into The Turtle
mountains between 21z and 00z Sunday...continuing to slide south
and through the James River Valley by 06z. A line of thunderstorms
from Moosomin Saskatchewan to Brandon Manitoba are forecast to
maintain a southeast track. Will continue to mention possible
severe wording in The Turtle mountains...specifically Bottineau
and Rolette counties through large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats. Impressive forecast 0-6km shear
values of around 65kt per GFS. Per Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis...cape values
of between 500 and 1000 j/kg near and along the border with dcape
of 700 j/kg per Storm Prediction Center could result in strong/damaging winds early
in the evening. Convection will quickly wane by 03z- 04z as the
cold front sweeps through. Elsewhere...a slight chance of
thunderstorms will be maintained in central North Dakota as weak
instability but decent shear per Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis could contribute
to thunderstorm development. The hrrr/WRF have been advertising
that a couple cells may develop through early evening. Dry and
cooler Sunday with highs in the middle 60s northeast to middle 70s

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

The well-advertised middle/upper level cyclone over northern
Manitoba is forecast to shift southeastward into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday morning. This will set the stage for cool surface high
pressure to drop into the Dakotas. The unseasonably cool air mass
will be characterized by highs struggling to reach 70f...but there
is great model/ensemble agreement that the western U.S. Upper level
ridge will push into the central U.S. And begin a warming trend by
midweek. There is also good agreement that precipitation will be limited to
the eastern Dakotas until Thursday evening.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

A strong cold front will move into northern North Dakota by 00z
Sunday and sweep in the kjms by 06z. Main effect will be a
wind shift to the northwest. VFR ceilings/visibilities expected through the
taf period with northwest winds of 15kt to 25kt.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Kansas
long term...scheck

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