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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Windy conditions this afternoon and a quiet Sunday highlight the
short term forecast.

A tight pressure gradient between a surface high across Montana and
low pressure near Lake Winnipeg will continue to yield strong
northwest winds through sunset...with 35-40 kts of flow at the top
of the mixing layer. A narrow band of wrap around precipitation
associated with the aforementioned surface low will propagate
southeast tonight...however...will only impact the Red River
valley and northwest Minnesota. A sunny...quiet and dry Sunday is
ahead with surface high pressure in place.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The upper ridge over The Rockies slowly makes its way eastward
to the plains to start the week while a cutoff low lifts its way
over the Sierra/Great Basin through the ridge...approaching the
plains late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring dry weather to the
forecast area Monday...with precipitation chances coming to
southwestern and south central portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...exiting east on the low slowly moves
northeast towards the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. The last
few model runs continue to show most of the precipitation with this
system remaining to our south...with our area remaining on the
northern fringes so will keep chances mainly over the southern
portions of the state. Ridging then re-develops over the area to
close out the work week bringing dry conditions...though remnants of
the low remain over the plains and Mississippi Valley. Temperatures
through the period will be very mild.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Strong northwest winds with gusts of 30-35 kts will continue
through sunset. VFR conditions for the remainder of the 18 UTC taf
period as high pressure builds across the area tonight.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...ayd
long term...jv

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