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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1203 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015

issued at 1202 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Quick update to add a mention of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon with small hail being reported across much of western
and central North Dakota with shallow convection associated with cool
temperatures aloft.

Update issued at 929 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

The forecast for the remainder of today is on track with the
stratus field overtaking western and central North Dakota expected
to slowly scatter with diurnal heating with rain shower coverage
increasing through the afternoon. This is in line with the 12-13
UTC hrrr iterations.

Update issued at 629 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Initial batch of widespread rain continues to push off to the
east...though secondary round of scattered wrap around showers are
starting to develop and work into far northwest North Dakota. Have
adjusted probability of precipitation to account for this. Have also increased cloud cover
mainly over the west as clouds continue to stream in behind the


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 400 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Continued chances for rain and windy conditions through
Sunday...highlight the short term.

An upper level trough over the northern plains will continue to
provide ample moisture and instability...prolonging chances for
widespread showers in central and eastern areas of the state through
the day. Additionally...temperatures slightly below average and
strong northwest winds will accompany the deepening trough. The
current 00z model suite provides good agreement on the upper level
trough digging and slowly moving eastward...pushing over
Minnesota/eastern Manitoba and closing off by 12z Monday. North
central North Dakota into the James River Valley have the
potential for a few snow flakes early Monday cold air
filtering southward from Canada is expected to drop overnight lows
to just below freezing.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 400 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Upper low will work along the Minnesota/Ontario border on Monday.
This should keep precipitation to the east of our area through the
day...though gusty northwest winds will continue in the wake of
the system. A fast moving wave will move in behind the system late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday which may bring a little light
precipitation to central North Dakota...but will keep probability of precipitation low
with lack of much moisture to work with. Quiet and cool conditions
are then expected with ridging to the west and northwesterly flow
over our area. Models start to disagree with the position of the
ridge and whether a few upper waves will make it through the area
towards the end of the week. Therefore...will keep any
precipitation chances on the low side.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1202 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015

MVFR/VFR stratus this morning is expected to slowly lift and
scatter into the afternoon with rain shower coverage also
increasing into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms with small
hail are possible. Strong northwest wind gusts of 30-35 kts are
also forecast across western and central North Dakota today.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...jjs

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