Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1226 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

issued at 1223 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

No major changes required to the ongoing forecast. Adjusted
temperatures slightly (by a degree or two) to match current
observation trends. Generally lowered temperatures east and
increased temperatures west.

Update issued at 928 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Only minimal changes to sky cover as high cirrus begins to spill
over the state from the northwest. Also updated latest sensible
weather elements. No significant changes from the previous

Update issued at 619 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Middle to high level clouds continue to move east and dissipate
across over eastern North Dakota. Mostly clear skies this early
evening across western and central North Dakota. Breezy south
winds will diminish a bit this evening...but will remain in the 10
to 15 miles per hour range most areas tonight. With the winds remaining looks to be a rather mild night with lows generally in the
middle 40s to lower 50s. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and
populated latest sensible weather elements.


Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 216 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

A warm and breezy Saturday with marginal fire weather concerns
southwest highlight the short term forecast.

Given good agreement amongst the 12 UTC deterministic and ensemble
suites...utilized a blend for the short term forecast. A warm
Saturday is expected with forecast highs around 20 degrees above
normal...with values in the middle 70s north to the middle 80s south
forecast. This is supported by good mixing via downsloping
westerly winds and an anomalously warm airmass characterized by
850 mb temperature anomalies in the 97.5 to 99th percentiles on
the 00 UTC naefs.

Per feedback with area fire managers...only Bowman and slope
counties have fuel loadings that would carry rapid fire spread.
Despite the warm temperatures...afternoon relative humidity near
25 percent and westerly winds around 20-25 miles per hour are too marginal to
support any fire weather headlines southwest at this time.
However...further shifts will have to evaluate.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 216 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low/longwave trough
circulating/centered over the Gulf of Alaska which overall will
continue in its current position through the long term period. A
fairly significant shortwave trough approximately located at 40n/150w
will eject out from the longwave trough and scoot through southern
Canada Sunday. The shortwave and associated surface low deepens as
it shifts through southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday/Sunday
night. A strong baroclinic zone gets established from northwest to
southeast Sunday across western and central North Dakota. A cold
front will push through western North Dakota Sunday morning and
central in the early afternoon. Highs Sunday will range from the
upper 60s west to lower 80s southeast. In response to this distinct
temperature gradient Sunday will be strong boundary layer to 850 mb
winds ranging between 40kt and 50kt. Thus the main concern will be
advisory level and/or warning level winds Sunday into Sunday night
across western and central North Dakota. As the shortwave trough
slides through...cold air advection with the 850 mb cold pocket/(0
celsius isotherm) reaches well into north central North Dakota
Sunday night into Monday morning. Afternoon highs Monday will be
much cooler with upper 50s north to lower and middle 60s south.

A west/northwest progressive pattern continues in terms of another
warm frontal passage Monday afternoon/evening...and a cold frontal
passage Monday night/Tuesday morning. Both frontal passages remain
dry but breezy conditions will continue through the this period.
Another cold front is forecast to push through Wednesday night and
Thursday with a brief return toward colder temperatures. Highs
Thursday and Friday are forecast in the 50s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1223 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

VFR at all taf sites through the taf period.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...ayd
long term...Kansas

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations