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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
345 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through saturday)

Issued at 345 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Main concern in the short term will be fire weather potential over
western North Dakota for Saturday. After a quiet night tonight a
very warm airmass will allow temperatures to rise into the 90s to
near 100 across western North Dakota Saturday. Minimum relative
humidity could fall as low as 15 percent. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for western North Dakota...west of the Missouri River
up to Lake Sakakawea and generally west of Highway 83 north of
Lake Sakakawea.

Otherwise...a weak trough of low pressure was the focus for a few
thunderstorms Friday morning and early afternoon across northeast
ND. As this trough slides southeast this afternoon and evening an
isolated thunderstorm may yet be possible across the James River
Valley into this evening. Otherwise will keep a mention of smoke
in tonight most of west and central North Dakota. The smoke has
been mainly aloft but skies are quite covered with it and there
continues to be a scent of it at the surface.



Long term...(saturday night through friday)

Issued at 345 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Warm temperatures and periodic thunderstorm chances will highlight
the extended forecast period next week.

Western Continental U.S. Upper level ridge will amplify into the central U.S
over the upcoming weekend...then translate to the eastern Continental U.S. Next
week putting southwest flow aloft into the northern plains through
the work week. The upper ridge this weekend will bring well above
normal temperatures and limited precipitation chances to western
and central North Dakota through Sunday daytime.

On Sunday we are expecting slightly cooler temperatures in the
northwest. The thermal ridge shifts into central North
Dakota...thus Minot and Bismarck could see temperatures
approaching records once again for Sunday...but much will depend
on the timing of an approaching cold front.

Isolated thunderstorms will enter the forecast Sunday night with
energy aloft and the aforementioned cold front/surface boundary
moving slowly south and east through North Dakota...cooling
temperatures back down into the 80s for Monday.

Broad southwest upper level flow will then persist through next
week. No major systems depicted...but we can expect daily isolated
to scattered thunderstorm chances with any embedded shortwave
which travels through the flow aloft coupled with any associated
boundary.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)

Issued at 1115 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Areas of smoke will continue to move over North Dakota this
afternoon and tonight. Most of the smoke will remain aloft and
model soundings show a fairly shallow inversion forecast for
tonight. A shallow inversion has less potential to capture the
smoke layer and bring it lower to the surface. Will not mention
smoke in the tafs for tonight. If smoke does occur at the surface
current thinking is it should not reduce visibilities less than 5
mile. Otherwise VFR.



&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for ndz001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

Short term...warm air advection
long term...New Hampshire
aviation...warm air advection

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