Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1210 am CDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
issued at 1210 am CDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
The latest Bowman radar shows light precipitation in the far
southwest...with mostly light rain continuing at Baker Montana
southeast to Hettinger. Radar and surface observations show a quick
transition to dry weather as you move towards Dickinson. The latest
rap13 continues to shift the light precipitation south through 12z
Tuesday. Hence...not overly concerned with much snow accumulation
from previous forecasts...as the 1 to 2 inches still remains on
track through 12z Tuesday.
Monitoring the rivers overnight for ice jams. Nothing much more
to report since the previous forecast discussions.
Update issued at 1016 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Based on reports for local emergency management...issued a Flood
Advisory for ice jam flooding on The Knife river near Hazen. Local
emergency management will continue to monitor the situation
tonight and will notify the National Weather Service if major
impacts begin to develop.
Otherwise...light rain continues to develop over southwestern
North Dakota. The latest Baker...Montana ob indicated the
changeover temperature was 34 degrees. Adjusted the weather grids
accordingly. Think snow accumulations will remain below 2 inches
tonight...so will hold off on issuing any headlines for this
Update issued at 659 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Not much change in the ongoing forecast. Still think rain will
turn over to all snow southwest and extreme south central later
tonight. Relatively low snow-to-liquid ratios should keep storm
total snow amounts below advisory criteria southwest.
An ice jam was reported along The Knife river near Hazen. Law
enforcement officials are monitoring the situation and will notify
the National Weather Service if major impacts are observed. Stay
tuned for updates.
Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 246 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Top down saturation process continues west this afternoon with light rain
continuing to develop in the southwest. 1 to 2 inches expected in
the far south later tonight...with isolated 3 inch amounts
possible depending on the timing of the changeover to all snow. A
few light snow showers expected to linger Tuesday...mainly north
and east...while the southwest warms up into the low/middle 40s.
The Hydro situation is becoming active due to snow melt...along
with additional ice jam concerns. See discussion below for
Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 246 CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
A progressive...and more importantly...a warmer pattern will
continue through the next 7 days with temperatures at or above
Precipitation chances look few and far between. There is a chance for
some light evening snow across the James River Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The next chance for precipitation doesn't
arrive until Saturday. These impulses have to traverse a rather
amplified ridge to reach the northern plains...therefore...they
should contain only minuscule amounts of moisture by the time The
Reach North Dakota. Combine this with their rather quick speed and
only light precipitation amounts are expected for the next week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1210 am CDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
The latest observations show VFR ceilings with scattered/broken middle level
clouds...although visibility at kidk is at 5sm with fog and will be
monitored. Attention turns to an area of low VFR and MVFR ceilings
sagging south from Saskatchewan an Manitoba. This is forecast to
impact the aerodromes beginning around 12z Tuesday at kisn/kmot...and
into kbis/kjms by 15z Tuesday. Kdik will be on the fringe of MVFR
ceilings and for now have 3500ft ceilings as the foreacst. There will be a
chance for snow showers by Tuesday afternoon and evening from kmot
issued at 220 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Active Hydro situation ongoing today. Have issued flood advisories
for Spring Creek at Zap...Cannonball river at Breien...little
Muddy river near Williston...and the littler Missouri at Missouri. In
addition...a Flood Watch is in effect for the Missouri River near
Williston until Friday afternoon.
The Flood Advisory points have experienced some rapid rises due to
runoff from weekend snow melt. Expecting rises near...or just
above flood stage Monday night into early Tuesday. These rises
should be short-lived...but ice jam flooding is possible this week.
Upstream of Williston...along the Yellowstone river near
Glendive...rising water has broken up the ice and created ice
jams. This higher water will move downstream into the Williston
area this week...increasing the threat for ice jams.