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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
341 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Current surface analysis places low sliding through southern
Saskatchewan with cold front sweeping through central Montana.
Upper level analysis places ridging over the northern plains with
potent short wave working through central Montana. Some convection
has developed ahead of the advancing system...with some lightning
strikes noted over eastern Montana. Gusty southerly winds have
developed over the area ahead of the front over our area...with
temperatures pushing well above average.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight...expect showers
and thunderstorms to continue their eastward progression spreading
into the area overnight. Latest high-res models suggest the
possibility of 2 rounds of precipitation with the initial round
moving though pre-frontal and the secondary round coming later
this evening with the frontal passage. Thunderstorms should
overall remain tame...though with steep lapse rates would not be
surprised to see a few strong wind gusts develop with high based

Pre-frontal pressure rises push mainly through western South
Dakota but nudge into southwest North Dakota bringing strong and
gusty westerly winds. Later in the evening cold front slides
through with winds shifting northwesterly and becoming gusty
throughout all of western and central North Dakota.

On Sunday...winds will slowly diminish from west to east through
the day with precipitation ending as front and short wave push
well off to the east and ridging re-develops.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Active northwest flow and above average temperatures will be the
focus of the long term.

Numerous chances for precipitation are northwest flow
aloft will dominate through the extended. The current 12z model
suite projects several upper level disturbances moving across the
northern plains through the long term. Much of the associated
precipitation is expected to be rain...although periods of snow can
be expected through the overnight/early morning hours.

There is strong model support for warm air advecting into the state
from the Continental U.S. Southwest...resulting in temperatures nearing 20
degrees above average through middle week. Near normal temperatures are
expected by the end of the week...with the projected arrival of a
cold front.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Local MVFR ceilings over kjms will erode early this afternoon.
Otherwise...gusty southerly winds will develop over the area ahead
of an approaching cold front. Local -tsra will be possible this
afternoon over western areas...with chances spreading into central
North Dakota this evening. Variable and gusty winds possible with
the thunderstorms. Strong cold front pushes in tonight with winds
becoming west/northwesterly and becoming strong and gusty. Areas
of MVFR ceilings will develop with the front. Ceilings will improve
Sunday from west to east with winds slowly diminishing.


Fire weather...
issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Well above average temperatures with relative humidity values as
low as 20 percent will continue to combine with gusty southerly
winds to bring critical fire weather conditions to far southwest
North Dakota. Winds will switch towards the west later today into
early this evening and increase ahead of an approaching cold
front which will slide through later tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible through this evening which may
result in dry lighting along with strong and erratic wind gusts.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 am CDT Sunday for

High Wind Warning until 10 am CDT /9 am MDT/ Sunday for

Red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for ndz031-032-040-

Wind Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for ndz001-009-017-018.

Wind Advisory from 1 am to 1 PM CDT Sunday for ndz004-005-012-



Short term...jjs
long term...jjs
fire weather...jjs

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