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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
855 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

issued at 855 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

As of 1330 UTC...the surface cold front was located from near
Cavalier in northeast North Dakota through Selfridge in the south
central. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorm
activity will continue along this front with surface dewpoints in
the lower 60s. This front will exit into the Red River valley by
middle day. Thereafter...drier air and well mixed conditions
overtake much of the area behind this front. A secondary cold
front/surface trough across southern Saskatchewan this morning
will propagate into the US Highway 2 corridor this
afternoon...and will be the focus for additional thunderstorm

Update issued at 626 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Showers with a few thunderstorms continue to move through portions
of southern North Dakota...and another area starting to develop
over north-central North Dakota. This falls well in line with
latest hrrr output. Morning update will address these areas and
remove probability of precipitation over the far west.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 301 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

This morning a cold front was moving through western/central North
Dakota. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
primarily focused along the front and parallel/on the south side
of an h300 jet. To the north isolated showers were across
southern Saskatchewan associated with the shortwave trough at
h500. Followed the hrrr and NAM for pop guidance this morning.
Best chance for precipitation will remain along the South Dakota
border...mainly south central this am. Precipitation across the south
will gradually diminish this morning as subsidence behind the
front and h300 jet takes hold. Then the exit region of an upstream
h300 jet will position itself to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the northern border this afternoon. It will be
a little east breezy west after this afternoon in the wake of the front.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 301 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Some showers/thunderstorms may linger into Saturday primarily over
northern into central/eastern North Dakota as area remains under
cyclonic flow and a potent short wave moves through the area. Gusty
winds are expected to develop throughout the area as the wave dives
through and stronger winds mix down. Winds will taper by evening
with precipitation ending as upper ridge builds over The Rockies. Quiet
weather expected to start the week as ridge axis works east. By
Tuesday...a compact upper low works through the ridge and approaches
the region...slowly working over the area through mid-week. Models
still struggling some on the placement of this system though at this
time it appears that most of the precipitation should stay south of the
area so will keep probability of precipitation on the low side.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 854 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

A cold front across central through northeast North Dakota as of
1330 UTC will move into Minnesota this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of
the front. A second cold front will enter northern North Dakota
this afternoon...yielding a threat of thunderstorms at kisn and
kmot this afternoon and evening. Strong westerly wind gusts near
30 kts are expected across much of the area this afternoon.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...warm air advection
long term...jjs

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