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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
414 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 318 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Main focus for the short term is warm temperatures and fire
potential across southwest North Dakota.

An upper level ridge and strong warm air advection will be
centered across North Dakota today. Southwest winds will mix down
warmer temperatures aloft. Most model guidance suggests
temperatures in the low to middle 80s will be likely today across
most of the area today. Mixing winds may also lead to some breezy
conditions. Rap/NAM soundings suggest west winds around 20 miles per hour
with higher gusts will be likely. These winds combined with low
humidity around 20 to 25 percent across southwest North Dakota
may produce near critical fire weather conditions. However...given
the marginal nature of these conditions will hold off on issuing
any fire weather headlines at this time.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 318 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Primary concern in the long term will be winds across the area and
fire weather potential in the far southwest on Sunday.

On Sunday...short wave and affiliated cold front push into the
area as an upper low slides from Alberta towards southern
Manitoba. Models remain consistent with developing 45-50kt 850mb
winds by late afternoon with adequate mixing...resulting in gusty
winds over the area as the front moves through. Latest models
continue to mix winds down in the evening hours...particularly
towards central North Dakota. At that time period 850mb winds
increase to around have increased wind speeds through
the overnight. Will hold back on any headlines for now to give
next shift a chance to see if models continue to advertise this
mixing on subsequent runs. Along with the winds...a few showers
may develop as the shortwave pushes in...mainly in the evening
hours over northern locations.

Along with the winds on weather concerns exist over
far southwest North Dakota where critical fuels exist. As of
now...relative humidity values look to possibly be in the middle 20s
when the strong winds develop...although this is highly dependent
on the timing of the cold front. Will re-evaluate later today and
a fire weather highlight may be needed.

Cooler...though near average...temperatures return on Monday in
the wake of the cold front. Some areas over the central and east
will remain windy through the morning...with winds diminishing in
the afternoon. Dry conditions and near to slightly above average
temperatures are then expected through the work week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1223 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

VFR at all taf sites through the taf period.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...aj
long term...jjs

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