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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
316 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 316 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

..high temperatures are forecast to smash records west and south
central Tuesday...

Record highs have already been broken at Williston and Dickinson
this afternoon. Here are the observed high temperatures as of

Location Monday hi temperature Monday hi temperature
observed record

Dickinson 51 (record) 49 in 1931
Williston 50 (record) 47 in 2006
Bismarck 50 52 in 1942
Minot 45 58 in 1906
Jamestown 41 52 in 1990

Upper level ridging will pivot into the plains tonight through
Tuesday. This feature combined with a surface trough developing
east of The Rockies will lead to strong warm air advection
developing over western and central North Dakota Tuesday. With the
lack of snow pack over areas along and west of the Missouri
River...think the warmer temperature aloft will have no problem
mixing to the surface. However...visible satellite imagery shows
snow pack remaining along and east of a line from Powers Lake to
McClusky to Ashley. Think that the snow pack east of the Missouri
River will temper forecast high temperatures Tuesday. Given the
aforementioned meteorological setup...the following table compares
forecast highs with record highs on January 27.

Location Tuesday hi temperature Tuesday hi temperature
forecast record

Dickinson 61 51 in 2008
Williston 56 47 in 1931
Bismarck 58 48 in 2008
Minot 50 55 in 1906
Jamestown 44 47 in 1989

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 316 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

The long term begins with two upper level shortwaves moving east
across The Rockies into the northern plains. One moving across
southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and the other over the
Wyoming/Utah/Colorado area. This will induce a weak surface low to
develop over the Dakotas to the Southern Plains. A mild night for
western and central North Dakota with lows in the 20s to middle 30s.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night...the northern stream upper
level shortwave moves southeast across North Dakota as the upper
level flow becomes northwesterly. This will allow colder Canadian
air to move south across the state behind a surface cold
front...and also create enough instability for light snow. Late
morning highs from around 30 north to middle 40s southwest...with
lows Wednesday night from 10 above in The Turtle mountains to the
upper 20s southwest. At this time it appears that most
precipitation of this light precipitation event is expected to
fall in the form of snow and in the north and east...with snowfall
amounts of around an inch mainly along and east of the Highway 52
corridor...from Kenmare to Minot to Carrington...with lesser
amounts south and west.

Thereafter...northwest flow aloft ensues with an upper level
shortwave moving across the state again Friday and Friday night
with the slight chance of light snow. Above average temperatures
with highs Thursday and Friday from the 20s to lower 40s.

Saturday through monday: the medium range models are in
disagreement on how far west the Hudson Bay low (and Arctic air)
will intrude into North Dakota. Average to below average
temperatures expected Saturday through Monday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1145 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

VFR conditions will prevail over western and central North Dakota
through the taf period.


issued at 316 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015

River and stream rises have been noted across much of the Missouri
Basin today resulting from snow melt and recent precipitation on
frozen soils. While flooding is not expected from runoff
itself...some ice break up may be possible with continued mild
temperatures through Tuesday. This may lead to ice jams and temporary
high water. Conditions will continue to be monitored for ice jams.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...



long term...jv

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