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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

issued at 1246 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Only some minor updates to clouds/pops/temperatures for the early
afternoon update. Nearly stationary frontal boundary is situated
over central North Dakota. Southerly flow over eastern into far
south central North Dakota with mostly sunny skies. Already in the
lower 60s over the southern James River Valley and will likely
near 70 degrees this afternoon. On the other side of the
boundary...cloudy skies continue...although clods over portions
of the northwest into the north central appear to be thinning
some. Precipitation continues to push northward through southwest
North Dakota. This area will be the coolest with temperatures
struggling to reach 50 degrees.

Update issued at 953 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

The 00z WRF looked to have a pretty good handle on the precipitation.
Next wave of precipitation is currently lifting into southwest North
Dakota. Precipitation extending across south central into north central
North Dakota will make little if any more eastward movement today
but will likely linger into the afternoon and slowly dissipate.
Updated probability of precipitation based on current radar...shifting higher probability of precipitation into
the southwest and diminishing probability of precipitation central through the morning.
Latest satellite shows mainly clear skies across the far southeast
County Warning Area with temperatures rising into the 50s. Adjusted sky cover down
here and with more sun expected bumped temperatures up from
Jamestown down to Ellendale and Oakes.

issued at 650 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Showers currently concentrated across the central so removed probability of precipitation
west with nothing on radar and no reports of precipitation. Next wave of
precipitation will slowly develop into the southwest this
morning...expanding north across my western counties today.
Clearing sill looks likely across the southeast.


Short term...(today and tonight)

Issued at 415 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

The main focus for the short term is rain and clouds

Latest water vapor imagery shows the leading shortwave moving
north into southern Canada. Surface observations indicate the
surface low has also entered southern Canada and left a weak front
draped across central North Dakota. This will be the focus for
scattered showers this morning. The 00 UTC NSSL and NCEP WRF runs
capture the rain across central North Dakota quite well this
morning. It is expected that the ongoing rain showers and
development east of Highway 83 will diminish shortly after
sunrise. Additional showers are expected to develop across the
southwest ahead of an approaching wave currently centered near
Colorado and spread eastward tonight.

Cloud cover may briefly erode across western North Dakota this
morning. cover is expected to fill back in across
the west by late morning as the upper level wave nears. Meanwhile
across the James Valley sunshine is expected to break through by
this afternoon. Temperatures under thick cloud cover will struggle
to rebound much from overnight lows. Therefore...temperatures
across western North Dakota will likely be 10 to as much as 20
degrees cooler than eastern North Dakota.

Long term...(monday through saturday)

Issued at 415 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Two distinct S/wv's and a ridge in between these systems will
highlight the majority of the extended period.

A northern stream trough will be moving across the northern plains
at the onset of the long term period. Associated surface cold
front will be the focus for showers along to behind the frontal passage as
it moves west to east across North Dakota. Will maintain elevated
probability of precipitation Monday-Monday evening with models in fairly good agreement with
the track and timing of low level convergence. Precipitation
should be out of the James River Valley sometime after 06z

Return flow and strong warm air advection will commence Tuesday-Wednesday as an
upper level ridge builds across The Rockies and eventually into
the northern plains.

Ridge axis shifts to our east late Wednesday into Thursday
allowing flow aloft to transition to southwest. Strong shortwave trough
moves into the Pacific northwest Wednesday...then proceeds east
across The Rockies Thursday am and into/through North Dakota
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Strong cold front will
accompany this wave and will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms given the instability advertised (500-800j/kg). This
will be Worth monitoring considering the strong surface and middle level


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1246 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings from kdik to kmot this afternoon.
Think Minot should be mainly MVFR...with a variable ceiling
between IFR and MVFR at kdik in rain and fog. Expect mainly lower
VFR ceilings at kbis and kisn this afternoon and this evening then
trending to all MVFR later tonight. Kjms is expected to remain VFR
through the forecast period. A nearly stationary front will linger
across central North Dakota today and tonight then finally begin
to move east on Monday.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...aj
long term...New Hampshire

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