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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

issued at 620 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

No significant changes required with this forecast update with a
relatively mild overnight expected with mixing ahead of the quasi-
stationary front across northeast Montana through southwest North


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Forecast challenge today will be temperatures and winds as the
precipitation continues to be none in the short term. A large h500
ridge continues to be the primary driver of weather in the short
term. The ridge axis will move through the northern plains
tonight. On Tuesday winds aloft will be backing to the southwest
as a shortwave trough across the Pacific northwest moves inland.
Good compressional heating from the High Plains will move h850
temperatures close to +20c across western North Dakota Tuesday. Highs
should be well into the 70s across western and south central ND.
Over the past few days good diurnal spreads over 40 degrees were
observed but these were aided by light winds. Some mixing from
southerly winds 10 miles per hour or so should keep temperatures up a bit. Followed
the preferred guidance of bcallblend for Tuesday min's which gave
low in the 40s.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The long term looks relatively quiet...with warmer than average

The only ripple in the forecast is a chance for rain across far
northwest North Dakota and the James River Valley Wednesday.

An upper level low...currently over northwest
forecast to propagate across northwest North Dakota Wednesday. An
attendant surface low and cold front will swing through the
region Wednesday morning/afternoon. With the majority of the
upper level dynamics north and the majority of the thermodynamics
south...the bulk of the precipitation should stay confined to the
northwest (near the upper level low) and southeast (along the cold
front and near the best moisture and instability).

Temperatures the rest of the week will remain mild...with readings
in the 60s and 70s.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 619 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for the 00 UTC taf cycle. Low level
wind shear is possible at kbis/kmot/kjms late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Strong southerly winds with gusts of 25-30 kts are
expected Tuesday afternoon at kbis/kjms.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...warm air advection
long term...aj

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