Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
650 am EDT Friday may 29 2015
high pressure will shift east today which will result in cooler
and drier air this afternoon. Warmer and more humid air returns
quickly for the weekend with showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping ahead of a cold front moving south from Canada.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
400 am EDT update...
surface high pressure sits over the region along with ridging aloft.
This combination have resulted in mostly clear skies and decent
radiational cooling. This will allow temperatures to fall into the upper
40s to low 50s across much of the area. This high pressure will be
short lived as it will drift off the East Coast by 00z tonight. We
will be influenced enough by the ridge today that through 00z
tonight we should remain dry. As the ridge drifts east today surface
southerly flow will return inducing warm air advection and allowing moisture to
move back into the region. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper
70s to low 80s this afternoon. Cloud coverage are expected to
increase this afternoon as the next storm system approaches.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
400 am EDT update...
by Friday night the ridge will be off to the east and a broad upper
level trough will be located over the central Continental U.S.. this pattern will
allow for semi-tropical moisture to be advected into our region.
This synoptic pattern will also place US within the southwester flow
aloft allowing multiple wave to move across the region supporting
showers and thunderstorms. There is a slight chance that convection
will develop as early as late Friday night as a weak vorticity
maxima will move across our area on the outer edge of the ridge.
Confidence is not great on this but can not rule it out.
The upper level trough will start to propagate east on Sat increasing
the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the area. This system
will drag a cold front across the area. There are still a lot of
discrepancy between the models on when this front will push through.
The front may push through as early as Sat night or late Sunday
morning. The best chance for accumulating precipitation will be Sat
afternoon/night ahead and along the front. Precipitable water values will be
around 1.5 inches...these precipitable water values will be around 2 Standard
deviations above normal... which will create a good soaking rainfall
event. The chance for rain will linger through the day on Sunday.
Still expecting around a half an inch total from this system.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the extended period begins with a trough over eastern Canada and
northeastern New York. The trough will fill through Monday evening, and by
middle week, the ridge will rebuild through the Ohio Valley into New York
A few showers are possible through late Monday, with cool
temperatures generally hanging around the middle to upper 60s. Once
the ridge rebuilds, the threat of precipitation will end and
sunny/warm weather will return.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
dense valley fog across the region early this morning will keep
kelm near Airport min through 13z before lifting. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the taf period with cirrus
today and a middle deck developing overnight after 06z. At this time it
appears the middle level clouds will preclude fog formation tonight.
Light and variable winds becoming S/southeast today around 5-8 knots
and continuing overnight.
Sat-Sat night...rain showers and scattered thunderstorms and rain with associated MVFR/IFR.
Sun-Mon...chance of -shra and associated restrictions...mainly