Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
643 am EDT Friday Aug 1 2014
an upper level disturbance will remain over the area through the
upcoming weekend. This weather system will keep with a chance of
showers or thunderstorms around each day. Cooler weather will
transition to more normal summertime temperatures today through
Near term /through tonight/...
400 am update...
Much like yesterday morning we have areas of fog along with some
isolated showers already developing. While none of the models
have a handle on this mornings showers if you look at the quantitative precipitation forecast
fields, looking upstairs shows a different story. These showers
are likely in response to an upper level jet around 250 mb moving
over our area, putting nepa and the Catskills in the favorable
right entrance region. These showers are merely showing The Hand
of what we can't expect for most of today in terms of one of the
higher threats for showers coming roughly near the Binghamton area
and points south and east. The other item we are watching is some
moisture over lower Michigan/Wisconsin, moving around the base of
the cut off low up in Canada. Its quite apparent we have something
to work with here with some cooling cloud tops on infrared satellite,
along with a pronounced tongue of moisture on water vapor. As this
area moves east, showers will also be likely across central New York
later today. Will continue to advertise higher probability of precipitation both here and
nepa/Catskills for the reasons mentioned above. Some thunder is
possible as well but we are not expecting any severe weather.
Unlike yesterday we are beginning to warm aloft and we do not have
such low freezing level heights as just 24 hours ago. Showers may
linger into tonight but the bulk of the activity will die down by
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
4 am update...
our previous forecast for chances of showers/storms both Saturday and
Sunday look good with the trough remaining in the northeast. It does
look like the main axis of moisture moving up the coast may stay
just to our east Saturday, but with the trough around and some
general instability hard to rule out precipitation. Anywhere during the
day. A better shot at a more widespread chance will come Sunday as
an 500 mb trough moves through. Instability parameters this far out are
all over the place with the NAM showing a few hundred j/kg of cape
while the GFS is closer to 1,000 in spots. I like the higher probability of precipitation
on Sunday for now based on the trough moving through. With a more
southerly flow of air highs near 80 both days or near normal for
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
long range pattern looks to feature a Delaware-amplified west-northwest
flow across the area aloft. Upper level ridges will be located
over the southwest U.S. And near Florida. Short wave trough
passages will be hard to time at this time range but this pattern
should support daily pop forecasts near 30 percent. Temperatures
will be near normal with highs near or just above 80 and lows near
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
Dense fog at Elm once again this morning...otherwise VFR conds across the
sites. Elm shd mix out shrtly bring VFR there as well. System moving
up the CST will push clouds and precipitation to avp after 00z....with mvr ceilings
and visibilities. Elsewhere...VFR conds shd prevail through the period at the
Sat-Tue...brief restrictions possible each afternoon...in isolated
to scattered shra-tsra...especially Sunday. Also...possible valley
fog early each morning for kelm.