Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
342 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
high pressure will build into the area tonight and last through
Friday night with dry but cold weather. Saturday and Sunday, weak
frontal boundaries will pass through the region bringing snow
showers and flurries along with minor snow accumulations.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
surface high pressure will build over the region this evening resulting in
clearing skies and weakening winds. Southeast of Lake Ontario
scattered snow showers and flurries will be possible under 300
flow but activity will be weak due to dry airmass and low
inversion height. Mainly clear skies along with light winds after
midnight will allow temperatures to fall below zero at many locations.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
Friday/Friday night...surface high pressure will drop south into the middle
Atlantic resulting in a southwest flow of dry air. Plenty of
sunshine expected on Friday with maxes in the middle teens to around
20. An approaching low pressure system in southern Canada will spread
clouds across the area Friday night but region will remain dry
Saturday through Sunday...leaned more toward the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
solution than the NAM. Surface low pressure will track from the upper
Great Lakes east across nearby southern Canada to northern New England.
The chance for snow showers will increase during the day Saturday
with the best chance for snow showers late Saturday afternoon
through evening across the northern County Warning Area on the front side of the system
in warm air advection forcing. Accums over the northern County Warning Area will be up to two inches.
The chance for snow showers will continue through Sunday as upper
level trough remains over the northeast along with the passage of a
middle level short wave. Maxes on Saturday will be in the middle/upper 20s
with readings lower to middle 30s on Sunday.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a milder weather pattern is setting up for the long range as the
broad trough that has been in place over the east begins to lift
north. The result will be lows taking tracks to our north bringing
in a warmer westerly flow. To begin the period Sunday night, a
clipper system will move through and bring the potential for an
inch or two of snow, mainly over central NY, before departing
early Monday. The Gem and European model (ecmwf) are stronger and more organized
with this feature than the GFS but in any event a couple to at most a
few inches of snow looks to be the worst case scenario at this
time. Following this system expect fair weather for the remainder
of Monday with seasonal temperatures as highs rise above freezing.
Following this first system the next low and its associated precipitation
shield are prognosticated to track well to our north Monday night into
Tuesday which will bring a warm front through. As a result, expect
highs Tuesday rising into the low to middle 40s for most of the
Milder and dry conditions look to prevail through the middle of next
week with a cold front moving down at some point toward the end of
next week. However at this point, a week out, forecast models are
not in good agreement on the timing of this feature.
Aviation /21z Thursday through Tuesday/...
low and middle level cloudiness continues to affect the area however
at this point the main concerns for restrictions is kith/kbgm and
potentially ksyr. For kith, expect MVFR ceilings this afternoon with
the potential for periods of MVFR visible in lake effect snow showers
off Cayuga Lake. Low stratus affecting kbgm as well will likely
result in continuing periods of MVFR ceilings this afternoon. For
ksyr/krme, there will be the potential for some light lake effect
snow showers this afternoon...at this point we don't expect this
to be enough to cause restrictions but this will have to be
watched. Finally, snow has exited kavp with no further
restrictions expected there. All sites will see diminishing clouds
through the late evening and overnight with a partly to mostly
sunny and dry day setting up for Friday.
Generally expect northwest winds this afternoon around 10 knots with
gusts to around 15 knots diminishing this evening.
Sat-Sat night...restrictions possible in snow showers...especially
for cny terminals.
Sun night-Mon...restrictions possible in snow showers.