Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
308 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
a low pressure system will drop out of the Great Lakes tonight
and spread snow showers across New York and PA. The upper trough
associated with this feature will bring continuing chances for on
and off snow flurries and snow showers until midweek with
potentially significant lake effect setting up behind this system
for late week as much colder air pours into the northeast.
Near term /through today/...
730 PM EST update...
snow showers are slowly moving north across western Pennsylvania
this evening within the cyclonic flow aloft as the upper level trough
starts to slowly move east into our region. Expect these snow
showers to develop over the area tonight... producing about an
inch of snow or less. At first expect showers to be very light
as there is still a pocket of dry air lingering that the showers
will have to fight through. By midnight the atmospheric profile
should cool enough to saturate the lowest levels... thus expect
snow to start accumulating at this time. Temperatures for the morning at this time
look good... still expect temperatures to reach the low 20s in the east
and upper 20s in the western zone. For more information please read
the previous forecast discussion below.
Previous forecast discussion...
the area currently remains situated between two systems...a
coastal storm off to the east and an approaching Great Lakes low
from the west. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken up
through the late afternoon into this evening however trend
continues to be for precipitation to hold off longer...not until middle to
late evening do I expect precipitation to fill in across the area as some
moisture from the coastal low works back into eastern zones and
the Great Lakes low spreads some light snow/flurries in from the
west. The upshot is that most areas should see a little light snow
tonight but we don't expect accumulation to amount to much more
than a coating to a half inch by morning. Lows will range from the
low 20s over eastern areas to the upper 20s west.
At this point, much of Tuesday looks to be largely precipitation free as
initial light snow/flurries we get tonight fizzle out over the
area tomorrow morning. Energy will be rounding the base of the
long wave upper level trough over the east and result in a new
surface low developing off the coast with an inverted trough
extending back to the Great Lakes low. However most of the precipitation
with this feature should stay off to our south through the day
Tuesday with otherwise just mainly cloudy skies and highs in the
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
chances for a little more light snow increase Tuesday night as
trough extending back from coastal low lifts north through the
area. Amounts will again be light...a trace up to an inch with the
higher amounts being over NE PA. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
20s once again.
The pattern will begin to transition during Wednesday as surface
troughiness moves off to the north and east with a west/northwest flow
setting up in its wake with high pressure off to our west. Expect
the area to see continuing snow flurries / snow showers,
especially over central NY, in part due to broad upper trough
affecting the area but also enhanced by the lakes. Accumulations
through the day should again mostly be light as the potential for
more significant lake effect looks to hold off until later
Wednesday night into Thursday as winds through the boundary layer
become better aligned out of the W/NW. While it's early to get
too specific, indications are for potentially significant lake
effect bands over parts of Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties
to set up for Thursday. The set up for a period of moderate to heavy
lake effect looks to be quite favorable...ample low and middle level
moisture and a deep mixed layer to 700 mb with 850 mb temperatures near
-16 c initially and falling. Outside of these counties, expect
blustery and much colder conditions Wednesday night into Thursday
as colder airmass advects in. Weaker lake effect will affect much
of the rest of the County Warning Area as well...especially central New York zones.
Temperatures Wednesday night drop into the teens and only rise a few
degrees Thursday due to strong cold air advection.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
300 am update... not much change with the 0z cycle of model runs.
Forecast highs Saturday of 5 (syracuse) and 6 (binghamton airport)
would be the coldest days since February 20th and 6th
respectively. Minor tweaks over the weekend included expanded area
of lake effect flurries and snow showers into the northern tier of
PA, and increasing probability of precipitation over The Finger lakes through Binghamton
area. Otherwise previous afd is below.
220 PM Monday update...
overall, a much more winter-like pattern appears likely, compared
to what we've seen for most of this season so far.
In the big-picture, a persistent upper-level ridge will take hold
along the West Coast of North America, while a deep trough
translates across eastern Canada and the northeastern states. This
trough appears amplified enough to drive bitterly cold Arctic air
into New York and PA for a few days.
Daily weather-wise, lingering lake snows across our northern zones should
be winding down Thursday night, as the wind flow shifts into the
southwest, out ahead of the next approaching disturbance.
On Friday, as a clipper type low moves by to our north, an Arctic
cold front will swing down across the area from the northwest. At
least scattered snow showers/squalls would be expected with the
front itself, then More Lake snows kick in behind it, as a bitter
cold air mass comes in on north-northwest winds. Much of central New York and pa's
northern tier should get in on the lake-effect action next
weekend, with light accumulations most areas, as a 320-350 wind
flow is prognosticated.
The big story Friday-sun will be the bitter cold, with daytime highs
generally in the 5-15 degree range, and overnight lows near or
below zero in many spots. Wind chills will make it feel even
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a period of MVFR to IFR snow all terminals the next 3 to 5 hours,
then mostly VFR today. Another period of snow likely all terminals
tonight, with more IFR visibilities possible.
An area of snow is rotating through the terminals now. Longest
restrictions will be at krme, with snow ending within the next few
hours at kavp. Mostly MVFR visibilities and cigs, but brief periods of
IFR possible at kavp, kbgm, and krme through the next few hours.
The rest of today is mainly VFR. After 20z IFR visibilities possible far
south in snow at kavp.
Another round of snow moves in tonight. High confidence for at
least MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow, but IFR visibilities possible
everywhere. Highest chances will be at kavp first, then New York
terminals through the evening.
Wednesday through Sat...at ksyr/krme, persistent IFR or worse
restrictions from snow showers/heavier lake-effect snow.
Elsewhere, restrictions will be more periodic, from passing snow