Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
326 PM EST sun Dec 8 2013
a system will bring a round of light mixed precipitation tonight
into Monday morning...starting as light snow this evening and
then transitioning to light freezing rain...sleet...and freezing
drizzle overnight. Monday night through Thursday...Arctic air will
work into the area. This will include developing accumulating
lake effect snow showers east of the Great Lakes.
Near term /through Monday/...
315 PM update...
double low system...yet we are in between...with one center by the
northern Great Lakes and the other offshore of New Jersey. Forcing
with the southern low has yielded a band of heavy snow in
southeast PA through New Jersey...as anyone watching the Philadelphia
pro football game can attest. We will still get a piece of the
system...with top down moistening yielding a batch of snow this
evening spreading from southwest to northeast. However...shortly
after snow arrives...saturated layer becomes shallow to point that
temperatures within it become unsupportive of ice Crystal
formation...so quick south-to-north transition to wintry mix of
light sleet and freezing rain/drizzle is foreseen overnight into
early Monday...and eventually plain rain/drizzle during the day
Winter Weather Advisory for entire area still looks good yet as
previously advertised this will definitely be a light
precipitation event. It happens to include light freezing
rain/freezing drizzle and thus the potential for hazardous travel
conditions on untreated roads...necessitating the advisory. Only
figuring on an inch or less of snow- sleet accumulation /perhaps
closer to 2 inches in Catskills to Oneida County/...and up to a
tenth of an inch of ice accumulation...most places less.
Non-diurnal temperatures tonight...slowly climbing from upper 20s
through low 30s into Monday morning...eventually reaching highs of
middle 30s to low 40s during the day.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
130 PM update...
cold air advection will dominate the short term period...as well
as development of westerly-flow lake effect snow for some.
Departure of system well to our northeast...as well as shallow
moisture profile and west-southwest flow...will keep things fairly
quiet Monday night. Into Tuesday though...850mb temperatures will
dip into the lower to middle teens below zero celsius while inversion
will rise to dendritic growth layer...beginning to initiate Better
Lake responses. Not expecting heavy accumulations Tuesday itself
with west-southwest flow keeping Lake Ontario band mainly north...yet perhaps
still skimming northern Oneida County. However...Lake Erie band
may actually stretch well east into at least southern tier-Finger
Lakes for at least scattered snow showers and perhaps brief
Lake effect continues to be favorable Tuesday night into
Wednesday...as 1000-500mb thicknesses drop further into the middle
510s to lower 520s decameter range. Highs Wednesday only 20s
Model soundings suggest dendritic growth temperatures
dominating the 3-7 kft above ground level layer. Passing shortwaves though will
fluctuate low level winds...which will push the bands around and
also could misalign winds in the lowest levels. We will have to
watch northern Oneida County closely in model trends for potential
of getting involved in lake prolific Ontario snow band...which
much if not most of the time will remain just to the north.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
215 PM EST update...
a very active weather pattern is expected in the extended
forecast. Minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast and
leaned towards wpc guidance. Very broad upper level low will
slowly drift north and east of the region resulting in a much
cooler air mass over the region... thus le snow showers will be
possible through Friday for central New York. High pressure will build
across New England this weekend which will help temperatures creep closer
towards 32. With large difference within GFS/European model (ecmwf) into the
weekend kept previous forecast with a slight chance for snow
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
1245 am EST update...
a very complex forecast is in store for the next 24 hours. A warm
front will move north through northeast Pennsylvania and central
New York today and tonight bringing a wintry mix of precipitation.
Precipitation through the taf period will be light and initially start
as snow as the airmass above the region is so cold. It will start
snowing at kavp around 19z...kelm 23z... kbgm 00z... kith 00z...
ksyr 03z... and krme 03z. During the early evening middle level warm
air will surge into the region resulting in the snow quickly
transitioning over to freezing rain. Light freezing rain is
expected this evening through 12z Monday morning. There is a brief
period for sleet at all taf sites as warm air continues to move
into the region Monday morning. By 18z all taf sites will change
over to rain.
Ceilings with these showers are expected to quickly fall to MVFR and
become become IFR at krme... kith... kbgm... and kavp. Visbys are
expected to remain MVFR except for kavp due to the possibility of a
brief burst of light snow before precipitation type changes.
Monday night... conditions slowly improving to VFR from west to east.
Tue/Wed/Thu...scattered MVFR syr/rme in lake effect snow showers. VFR
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST Monday for paz038>040-
New York...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am EST
Monday for nyz015>018-022>025-044-045-055-056.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST Monday for nyz062.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Monday for nyz009-036-037-046-057.