Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1236 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
a front with showers will pass east through the area early this
morning. Most of the showers will be gone by sunrise...but clouds
will continue into tonight. High pressure will build southeast
from central Canada Thursday. Cold dry air could cause frost early
Friday morning with lows in the middle and upper 30s.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1015 am update... just isolated showers/sprinkles remain over our northern
zones late this morning...owing to lingering moisture and upslope northwesterly
flow. As the column gradually dries out and sinking motion sets
in with time...any light precipitation should be over by early afternoon...with skies
also becoming partly sunny most areas.
Based on 12z soundings and the expectation of slight low-level cold air advection this
afternoon...our forecast highs (ranging in the 60s) look reasonable.
Previous disc... 3 am update...
Cold front progressing as expected into western New York at this time. Large area of
rain showers ahead of it across most of the County Warning Area. Rainfall amounts
under half an inch now and with the forward speed should stay that
way. The far south and southeast will not see that much rain. Dry now and
bulk of rain will stay north of there this morning. Steady rain
will exit the western Catskills by 8 am...but a few lingering showers
could be along the trailing front daytime morning in central New York and
Catskills until midday.
Behind the front cold air advection from the northwest will start. A low level inversion
combined with lake moisture will keep some clouds in the area
through tonight. This despite a large surface high building in from
the Midwest. With the clouds model guidance on low temperatures
tonight has come in warmer. Very small chance of a frost and then
only in NE Oneida away from the clouds.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
3 am update...
Wednesday the high weakens but is centered over the area. Skies should
clear with high temperatures back into the middle and upper 60s.
Wednesday night a weak cold front moves southeast through the area ahead of an
even larger surface high coming out of south central Canada. The front
will cross the County Warning Area early Thursday morning. Clouds will again keep
temperatures up and slightly warmer than tonight. Showers will be limited
if anything. Schc probability of precipitation Steuben to Oneida counties in New York late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning.
The Canadian high will be over the NE US Friday morning providing
a cold clear Thursday night. Lows in the middle and upper 30s with
light to calm winds and mainly clear skies should cause frost to
form. The coldest temperatures just above freezing will be from Delaware
to Oneida counties.
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
the extended period begins with a relaxation of the long wave
pattern. A zonal, northwest flow will persist into the
northeastern U.S., While a surface high sits over New England and
eastern New York.
A storm system will drop out of Canada late Saturday and push
showers across NY/PA. This cyclone will stall over lower Ontario
and become stacked with a strong, closed upper low. The presence
of the dual systems will keep showers flowing into New York/PA into
early next week.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
preciptation has exited the region but there remains some low
stratocu to burn off. A broken 2500 to 5000 feet deck is forecast
through the afternoon hours, with rapid clearing expected to take
place around sunset.
Another round of River Valley fog is forecast for Wednesday
morning. The best chance for IFR fog will be at kelm after 7z.
Lighter fog is possible at kith and kbgm.
Wednesday to Sat...VFR except for morning IFR fog, especially at Elm.