Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1010 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a large high pressure system over the Great Lakes will build into
the area and bring dry weather to the region for the rest of the
work week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
10 PM update...
lingering shower activity continuing across the southern Poconos
this hour with latest radar trends suggesting activity is beginning
to weaken as main surface low begins exiting off the southern
mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast. High pressure continues to
settle south across the region with latest satellite trends
showing mostly clear skies across much of upstate New York and the
northern tier in PA. Minor adjustments made to grids based on
latest trends but in general...forecast remains in good shape this
evening.
7 PM update...
lingering light shower activity prevailing across portions of Sullivan
County this hour as moisture lingers on the backside of a low
pressure system now working off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and eastern North
Carolina coast. Activity should dissipate within the next hour or
two with loss of daytime heating and further eastward movement of
this low pressure center. Elsewhere...rapidly clearing skies noted
across The Finger lakes and points north as high pressure
continues building in from eastern Ontario province. All in
all...things remain on track with only minor adjustments needed at
this time.
Previous near term discussion...
lopres centered near NYC this afternoon with a cold fnt trailing back into
southern and cnterl PA. This has focused some conv over the very
extreme parts of the forecast area. There is limited instability with
plenty of middle and ll clouds as a result of a WV zipping through the upper
trough over the northestern US. System is progressive as much drier air
continues to advect in from Canada overnight. With light NE winds on the
surface and much stronger flow just above the boundary layer...not a favorable
set up for fog formation.
&&
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
dry period as a 1025mb surface hi builds into the area under a northwest flow
aloft. Wednesday looks dry and sunny and will be flwd by a clear and
chilly night. Mex guidance brings elom to 36 with some surrounding areas to
34. However...with full Greenup and warm ground and water believe it
will be difficult to form patchy frost.
Hi slides east on Friday as a trough noses into the Central Lakes and
Ontario. Any precipitation shd remain well north and west of the area but
there shd be a notable increases in hi clouds and ll relative humidity as a southwesterly flow
near the surface develops. Temperatures shd continue to climb as well with many
areas in nepa and the valleys passing 80f Friday afternoon.
&&
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
12z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) exhibit some differences in the pattern
during the weekend with the European model (ecmwf) a bit slower building an upper
ridge northeast from the Central Plains toward the northeast. The
European model (ecmwf) forecast would indicate northwest flow and scattered thunderstorms
on the northeast edge of the ridge... while the GFS shows stronger
ridging and a dryer... warmer pattern. Have leaned slightly toward
the European model (ecmwf) with this forecast which also matches well with the HPC
guidance... indicating a chance of thunderstorms through the weekend.
Regardless of which model is correct it looks like the ridge will
eventually build east bringing a period of very warm weather
early next week... along with scattered mainly afternoon
thunderstorms.
&&
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a dry northerly flow will persist over the region through this
taf period as surface low pressure moves off the East Coast and high pressure
over southern Ontario builds south. Clear skies are expected
across all the terminal overnight except for kavp where scattered/broken
low VFR clouds along with a middle deck will persist through 07z then
scatter out. On Wednesday just a few cumulus are expected.
Light northerly flow overnight increasing to 8-12 knots by middle
morning Wednesday.
Outlook...Wednesday night through Sunday...primarily VFR, but brief
restrictions are possible Saturday and Sunday in widely scattered
convection.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...dgm
near term...cmg/dgm
short term...dgm
long term...mse
aviation...rrm
