Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
224 am EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure centered over the southeastern United States will
bring dry mild weather to the area through Saturday. Temperatures
will be well above normal for late December with highs in the 40s
and lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. A cold front will bring a
chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Colder weather
will follow behind the front.
Near term /through today/...
130 am update...
An large area of high pressure centered over Georgia extends north-northeast
into our area. Moisture trapped under the inversion is still
dogging the County Warning Area early this morning. Some improvement in the far
south with clear skies. This morning a few showers across Oneida
County will continue with aligned westerly low level flow. Not
cold enough for lake effect but enough moisture left combined with
orographic lift into the tug for showers. Either way will not add
up to much more than flurries or sprinkles.
Clouds will slowly erode from the south with the inversion
lowering to below 3k feet and the low level shifting to SW away from
the lakes. Kept the trend of skies being mostly sunny south and
partly sunny rest for this afternoon. With 850 temperatures near 0c surface maximum
temperatures will be in the 40s.
Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
130 am update...
Dry mild weather tonight to Saturday then a cold front Sunday with
Clouds will continue to be partly cloudy tonight into Saturday
with SW mild flow. Lows Friday night colder than now but still mild in
the u20s to m30s. Saturday with more sunshine mostly middle and upper
40s for maxes but possibly a few 50s. Snow is gone now and ground
will be drying today and Sat. Trend has been up with warmer temperatures
forecasted for Saturday each of the last few days.
Late Saturday clouds come in from the west. Schc probability of precipitation in northern
Oneida with upslope for a few rain showers. Better moisture and
lift ahead of and with the cold front late Sat night and Sun
morning. All models have some rain for entire County Warning Area. With the
progressive nature of the front rainfall amounts will be under
half an inch. The front GOES through quickly Sunday morning. A
wave moves NE along the front keeping the chance of showers in NE
PA Sunday night.
In the far north Sunday and Sunday night the low level flow shifts
to 300 degrees. 850mb temperatures fall to -10c late Sun night so lake
effect snow possible. Moisture will be shallow with the inversion
at 5k feet. Continuing with the old forecast and those around ME of
a dry forecast Sun night into Monday...but this may need to adjusted.
If the wave Sunday slows the cold front the ll flow will take
longer to shift and keep the north dry longer.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
135 am update...
extended period starts off with zonal flow aloft. At the sfc, hipres
building in from Canada will leaving County Warning Area in north-northeast flow which will likely prevent
any lake effect precipitation from dvlpng thus have rmvd probability of precipitation for Monday. Southern
stream WV looks to induce surface low development over the southeastern U.S. At the
start of the period but with hipres building in this should have zero affect
on area. Anticyclonic flow continues into middle-week though medium range models
are indicating a weak lopres system and/or surface trough will be in vicinity
of area on Tuesday so will continue with slight chance for snow showers Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Flow flattens on Wednesday with surface winds going northwest as ridge axis
relaxes. Will continue with chance-slight chance probability of precipitation through end of extended as no
clear-cut systems appear through the end of the week.
Canadian air will filter in on Tuesday leading to near or slightly below
normal temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures will then begin to moderate
through the end of the week.
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
clouds are scattering out over avp at this hour and expect this
will be a very slow progress to the north as inversion lowers
overnight and possibly trapping moisture in through middle-late
morning. MVFR ceilings will likely be predominant and bgm, ith and rme
for a good part of the morning and afternoon hours. At syr and Elm
expect just occasional MVFR ceilings either side of daybreak.
Drier air will work in late morning and spread into northern
terminals by afternoon, resulting in clouds scattering out. Expect
just a scattered-broken middle-deck through end of taf valid time.
West winds 7-10kts starting off back around to the south this
Sat ngt-sun...restrictions possible with chance of rain-snow
Sun ngt-Mon...mainly VFR.
Tuesday...mainly VFR...except restrictions possible for ksyr and krme due to lake
effect snow showers.