Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
649 am EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
a cold front will move through today with scattered mixed rain
and snow showers especially in New York state. Behind the front
drier but much colder air will return Sunday and Monday with highs
mainly in the 20s.
Near term /through tonight/...
650 am update...
line of showers associated with the initial front is now over our
far east. Based on observation not much more than a few sprinkles. Expect
a brief lull but already we are seeing new showers form over cny.
This will be the area that has the highest risk for showers,
mainly rain but also some wet snow, today. After talking with the
aviation forecaster I increased probability of precipitation farther south through The
Finger lakes into northern PA for lake effect. This is based on
the arw and the 0z Canadian. I also kept lake flurries/showers
going into midday Sunday. A coating to a few inches possible at
most. The previous afd is below.
430 am update...
Our first "cold" front is moving through the area now with a thin
weakening line of mainly rain showers. While not as impressive as
hours ago, this line does look like it will make it through most
of the County Warning Area and I raised probability of precipitation to account for this through daybreak.
With surface temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s back through
western NY, we are looking at mainly just rain early this morning.
We did have a brief shot of some snow here at the Airport within
the past hour, with a surface temperature of 40. To account for the
higher terrain I added a rain/snow mix through daybreak for
elevations above 1400 feet. A second cold front, with the true
cold air, now across lower Michigan will move through later today.
Mainly rain showers with this as well across the lower elevations with
boundary layer temperatures well above freezing. Continued to show some
wet snow over the higher terrain this morning, with a gradual
lowering of the snow levels elsewhere through the day as we cool aloft. We
may still be too warm in the lower elevations for much to occur.
Much colder air arrives tonight behind the second front mentioned
above. 850 temperatures drop to as cold as -22c over the eastern end of
Lake Ontario. A limited fetch on a 300 flow along with fairly dry
conditions will limit lake effect. Still with 850s that cold, it
will be enough for some light snow showers off the southeast end
of Lake Ontario. A light coating of snow is possible.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
430 am update...
Any lake snows will end Sunday as the column is too dry to support
precipitation. Main story will be the temperatures with highs both Sunday
and Monday in the 20s. The trend with the next system on the 12z
runs yesterday continued overnight, keeping this next system well
to our south. Only the 0z Canadian would brush US with very light
snow over the extreme southern portion of the County Warning Area. Meanwhile the
0z Euro/NAM/GFS are all dry and well south. We only had chance probability of precipitation
Sunday night into Monday as it was and a couple inches of snow
over the far southeast. Model consensus would support a dry
forecast but I kept low chance probability of precipitation over the far southeast to
match up with surrounding offices better and start the downward
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
2 PM Friday update...
still unsettled with multiple storms. At this time nothing looks all that
bad. Followed wpc guidance. Monday night snow is possible in NE PA and
the southern Catskills before high pressure moves in for Tuesday and Tuesday
night. For Wednesday to Thursday warmer and moister air comes in with ridging
aloft and southerly flow. A strong cold front will move through
Thursday morning with mixed precipitation. Too early to worry about snowmelt
and rainfall runoff but will obviously need to be watched. By then
the rivers will be back down. For Friday and Saturday back in the
cold air with an upper level trough and low level northwest flow. Snow
showers mostly in New York.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
much colder air will come back into the area this afternoon and tonight
triggering le snow showers across the forecast area. Gnrl VFR conds
will prevail but occasional MVFR seems likely most stations in snow
showers due to both visibility and ceilings. Some imprvmt after ooz but with very
cold air in place...at least some le shd continue through the end of the
taf period. SW winds this morning will become more west-northwest as the Arctic hi
builds over the northern US. Tight gradient and March sun mixing shd
allow for gusts well over 20 kts late morning into the evening.
Sun...occasional MVFR ceilings/flurries possible...mainly cny.
Sun night to Monday night...probably VFR in New York. IFR/MVFR possible at
kavp in snow...as a low pressure system crosses Middle Atlantic States.
Tuesday to Tuesday night...VFR.
Wednesday...MVFR possible in mixed precipitation.