Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1047 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a slow moving storm system will finally depart the region
tonight...with showers tapering off late this evening. For the
next few days...although much of the time will be rain-free...hit
and miss afternoon showers are anticipated...as upper-level
disturbances will be in the vicinity.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
1040 PM EDT update...
made minor adjustments to the forecast. Massaged temperatures as they are
slightly cooler than previously thought. Dew points are in the low
50s across the region and expect as the dry air moves into the
region... they will continue to fall a few more degrees.
Showers/drizzle should over the next few hours dissipate as well.
Previous forecast is still good.
730 PM EDT update...
dry air is starting to move into western New York this evening as we are
finally starting to be positioned on the back side of the upper level
trough. Dew points over far western New York are in the low to middle 50s
and expect the dew points over our County Warning Area to fall into this range as
well. As the dry air continues to move into the region expect what
showers/drizzle are lingering to dissipate. And expect cloud
coverage overnight to become less and less.
It will become quite chilly tonight and temperatures are expected to fall
into the low 50s to upper 40s. As the skies clear out valley fog
may develop... and in locations where the sky becomes clear for a
few hours or more may see some dense fog towards sunrise.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
410 PM Monday update... the next few days (tue-thu) will be
characterized by cyclonic flow aloft...just ahead of a lingering
upper-level trough axis across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions.
Meanwhile...at the surface...a ridge of high pressure will be slowly building
eastward from the upper lakes region and southwestern ont.
In general...this means dry weather much of the time...but diurnally
driven and widely separated showers/thunderstorms should be around...mostly
Wednesday and Thursday...when the aforementioned trough axis makes its
closest approach to NY/PA.
Although temperatures will be fairly cool for the end of July (highs
mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s)...they should
slowly moderate towards the end of the work week.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
large scale trough will remain fixed over eastern Continental U.S. This period,
with a closed low positioned over Ontario province. The pattern's
amplitude will diminish toward the end of the period.
With this pattern, we expect scattered shower and thunderstorms
activity, mainly during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will
average below normal through Sunday.
Followed HPC guidance with minor temperature adjustments and pop
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
upper level low pressure is pulling into New England bringing the
showers to an end by 06z. MVFR ceilings expected at syr and rme
through 06z Tuesday before scattering out leaving VFR in its wake.
Further to the south, IFR expected across ith and Elm through 06z.
After this time, clouds will scatter out leaving IFR restrictions
in fog through 12z before improving. At bgm and avp, expect just
MVFR restrictions after clouds scatter out.
After 15z Tuesday, expect another round of VFR cumulus to develop
in lingering low-level moisture.
Winds out of the west-northwest from 5-10kts next 24 hours.
Wed-Sat...restrictions possible each afternoon...in isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms.