Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
153 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015
a weak front will slowly move south over the region today. This
front should produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will take control again late
Friday night resulting in dry and above normal temperatures
through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
9 am update...
update mostly to cloud cover and probability of precipitation. Removed probability of precipitation until 15z.
Nothing happening now and still stable. Clouds have moved in on
top of the widespread valley fog in central New York. NE PA mostly
sunny. So cloudier in New York and sunnier in PA. Rest just changed a
dense fog have developed again this morning and become
widespread over central New York and northeast PA. Fog is slightly more
dense than expected and should lift roughly around 14z-15z.
A weak boundary is slowly moving south over southern Quebec this
morning... and is expected to move over the region today. This
backdoor front may to generate a few showers and thunderstorms as
it moves south. This feature is almost all surface based... as in
minimal support aloft. Plenty of sb instability will be present
during the afternoon combined with very weak flow aloft. This
combination may result in brief heavy rainfall this afternoon.
Showers will be diurnally driven and will slowly diminish near
sunset. At this time... this boundary is expected to slowly move south and
cross the New York border late tonight.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
little change was made to the previous forecast...
The previously mentioned boundary will drift southward over NE PA
Friday afternoon and additional showers and thunderstorms may be
possible. Thee activity will also be diurnally driven and are
expected to dissipate near sunset. Believe activity will be
confined to nepa as this area will be closer to the lingering
boundary. Saturday... the ridge at the surface and aloft will
strengthen over the northeast. This will result in dry and above
normal temperatures through the remainder of the weekend.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
230 am update...previous forecast still on track. Only made some
very minor tweaks to sky grids for next Tuesday and Wednesday. See
discussion below for further details.
3 PM Wednesday update... quiet weather will dominate most of this
period, as a large eastern U.S. Ridge and deep western U.S. Trough
prevail. The end result will be rain-free weather much of the
time, and continued above normal temperatures.
Our best chance for any showers or thunderstorms still appears to
be later Tuesday, when a weak cold front and northern stream upper
trough approach from the northwest.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
a back door cold front will drop through the terminals this
afternoon. Isolated convecton is likely with this boundary but
except for krme not included in tafs due to limited areal
coverage. Before frontal passage abundant low level mositure will keep
occasional MVFR conditions at the terminals. This evening
conditions will be VFR with mainly clear skies, this will set the
stage for dense valley fog across the twin tiers. At kelm included
conditions close to Airport mins by the way 06z-14z. At kbgm/kith,
occasional IFR conditions from 09z-13z and MVFR at kavp. After 14z
on Friday VFR will return to all terminals.
Northwest winds at 5-10 knots becoming light north/NE overnight then east/NE on
Friday around 5 knots.
Friday night-Monday...mainly VFR is expected. Early morning fog
is possible each day, especially kelm.
Tuesday...restrictions possible as cold front approaches region.