Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
740 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015
a cold front that moved through last night will continue to move
slowly south of the area with areas of light rain continuing to
wind down into early this evening. Clouds will continue to linger
tonight however. High pressure with a sunnier sky will build in
for Sunday...lasting into Monday...before some rain arrives
Tuesday with our next system.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
730pm EST update...
overall the forecast is in great shape this evening. Post-frontal
conditions consist of mostly cloudy skies with a few spots of fog
and drizzle. This activity should slowly diminish tonight. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected through much of the overnight as a
strong inversion is present along with lots of low level moisture.
The cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from falling too much
tonight in the cold air advection pattern. Temperatures are still expected to fall into
the low to middle 20s across much of the area... except over the
Wyoming Valley and far southern Pike County where temperatures should
hold in the low 30s. For more information please read the previous
forecast discussion below.
Previous forecast discussion...
as of middle afternoon, still looking at overcast skies with
lingering areas of Post-frontal light rain and drizzle from the
twin tiers south. Trend will be for this to continue winding down
north to south with last of it moving out of northeast PA-
Sullivan County New York this evening. However exodus of clouds will be
more gradual as moisture is trapped beneath Post- frontal
inversion. While there may be some brief partial clearing in the
north this evening, low clouds should fill back in as low level
temperatures cool toward the dew point. Thus, expect generally overcast
skies to persist through tonight before clouds slowly burn off
Sunday morning as surface ridge moves south toward the area. The
one caveat will be The Finger lakes east toward Onondaga County
where some lake effect cloudiness will be likely Sunday afternoon
as colder air moves over the lake on a northerly flow. Moisture
however looks to be insufficient to result in precipitation. Highs Sunday
will generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s over central New York
to the low to middle 40s over NE PA.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/...
no major changes to the forecast. Dry weather and seasonal
temperatures through Monday...followed by an increasing chance for
light rain late Monday night ahead of our next system. There is a
small potential for brief light freezing rain in eastern parts of
the area predawn hours of Tuesday morning.
Broad high pressure will translate from upper Midwest-central
Ontario Sunday...to Quebec Sunday night...and on to New England
Monday. It will control our weather...not only with the mainly
clear sky Sunday through Monday...but also with temperatures and
precipitation type Monday night.
The placement of the high over coastal New England and shifting
offshore Monday night...will set up a cold air damming scenario
against Catskills-Poconos-Tug Hill. Meanwhile...southwesterly flow
ahead of approaching front will cause warm air advection and thus
non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night...that is...creeping up
overnight instead of down. There is still a question as to how
quickly light rain can spread in late Monday night-predawn
Tuesday. GFS is still slowest of the models...Gem global the
fastest. Latest NAM/European model (ecmwf) have actually slowed down just a bit.
This timing will be important because the cold air damming in
Catskills- Poconos-Tug Hill could result in surface temperatures
still being below freezing for a brief time as the light rain
arrives. Warm air aloft ensures that there will be no flakes.
Confidence in light rain arriving before temperatures get above
freezing...remains on the low side. So while the chance of light
freezing rain is mentioned in the forecast of the more vulnerable
areas...we still don't mention it in the local hazardous weather
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
130 PM update... medium-range models are consistent with their
recent previous runs, yielding a fairly high confidence forecast.
In the big picture, a progressive upper-level trough/closed low is
still forecast to track from the upper Midwest, eastward to off
the New England coast Wed-Thu. Thereafter, heights should rise
over the eastern U.S./Southeastern Canada, as another amplified
trough digs into the intermountain west.
Daily sensible weather-wise, Wednesday looks showery, as the
previously mentioned upper-level system, and associated surface
frontal complex, translate across the region. Thursday may feature
a few lingering rain or snow showers, with seasonably chilly
temperatures (highs in the upper 30s-middle 40s). Friday-Sat look dry,
from this early Vantage Point, with temperatures gradually
moderating back to near, or above normal, for early December.
Aviation /01z Sunday through Thursday/...
ll moisture trapped beneath the inversion will keep IFR and MVFR ceilings in
much of the area overnight.Patchy MVFR visibility possible as well as the northwest
flow rises over the terrain...especially over The Finger lakes and southern
tier. Little change overnight flwd by slow imprvmt on sun as drier air
tries to work in from the NE. Expect mainly MVFR and VFR ceilings after
18z on sun. Winds will grnly remain light.
Tue-Wed...restrictions are likely, in lower ceilings and light
Thursday...mostly VFR, but brief restrictions possible in rain or snow