Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
644 am EDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
more showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front
crosses the area. High pressure will provide fair weather for the
end of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
400 am update...
Back edge of the heavier rain is still over parts of nepa and
Sullivan/Delaware counties in New York. Locally heavy rain is possible
here through daybreak, and thus our Flash Flood Watch will
continue for part of the area. As this area shifts east this
morning, with it will go the higher precipitable water values and threat for
The combination of a cold front and an upper level trough will
combine with diurnal heating to produce another round of
showers/T-storms by this afternoon, especially from northern PA
north. With a clear sky and near calm conditions tonight and our
recent bouts of rain, conditions should be ripe for dense River
Valley fog after midnight.
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
400 am update...
Thursday looks like a much drier day across the area. Earlier
model runs from the past several days up until just last night,
showed a small potential for an afternoon shower in northern
PA/southern New York. Model soundings are much drier on the 0z runs and
therefore in collaboration with other offices, will keep Thursday
dry. High pressure will slide across the Great Lakes Friday and
provide US with a great end to the week.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
430 am update...no major changes to extended forecast. Just
tweaked temps, winds and probability of precipitation for better consistency.
400 PM update...
a trough over lower Ontario will press eastward on Saturday,
causing a few showers and thunderstorms later Saturday over New York and
PA. A weak ridge will rebuild for Sunday, with temperatures
pushing into the 80s. The ridge will keep weather fair into Monday
before the next trough swings into the region next week.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
plenty of lower clouds around taf sites in c New York and NE PA this
morning with patchy MVFR and isld IFR restrictions. The IFR was
confined to kbgm on the hill and in kavp where recent rains have
fell. A cold front will pass through the region by afternoon and
organize more rain showers and thunderstorms and rain between 15z and 20z with MVFR
restrictions. In the time leading up to this...insolation will
lead to a broken cumulus layer evolving from the more stable stratus
later of the early morning. Ceilings should run from 4000 and 6000 feet
by late morning all taf sites in a typical cumulus field. Rain showers
and thunderstorms and rain will lead to brief MVFR restrictions in all taf sites as
front moves through...except kavp where we think the probability is
lower than 50 percent.
After the cold front and assctd precipitation passes east by around 20z...VFR
scattered cumulus with higher clouds above should prevail until after
dark when a moist ll northwest flow gets established. This ll northwest flow
will bring down MVFR ceilings to all taf sites...except kbgm where it
likely will be IFR late in the taf period. Kelm likely will remain
around 3500 feet or so and be close to MVFR. The lower clouds and ll
moisture Don/T quite reach kavp b4 12z Thursday. So have just VFR in
clouds late in taf period there.
Winds will be west-SW less than 10 knots this morning and west-northwest this
afternoon 8-12 knots with some gusts...then become weaker
Thursday through Friday...mainly VFR.
Sat...chance of scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain and associated restrictions.