Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
304 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
a cold front will move south through the area by this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially for the
southern tier and Catskills of New York, and northeast
Pennsylvania. High pressure with dry weather and cooler
temperatures will take control for Thursday and Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
250 PM update...
A cold front is just about halfway through our County Warning Area right now, with
plenty of instability ahead of the front but limited shear. A
quiet radar through early afternoon is now showing an isolated
shower near Elmira, and scattered. Convection in the Hudson Valley. A
30% chance for showers/storm still looks on track from roughly the
southern tier of New York (elmira/Binghamton/oneonta) south and east
into northeast PA. 12z NAM/GFS model forecast MLCAPES of 1200
j/kg+ are being realized with the latest Storm Prediction Center analysis providing
verification for this over nepa and the Catskills. These values
along with plenty of dry air in the middle levels are good enough for
a wind threat with any storms that form and to a lesser extent
large hail. Although with hail our warm environment, with -20c
values up around 25kt, will diminish this threat a bit. The main
limiting factor will be shear or lack thereof with 0-6 km bulk
shear values of 25 kts, but low level shear non existent. With
that in mind still expecting a few pulse storms/mini lines to form
with brief damaging winds/hail the main issues. Any convection
will quickly diminish by 02z. A clearing sky this evening will
give way to increasing clouds after 09z as moisture moves in from
the north. Increased cloud cover for mainly central New York/southern New York
during this time.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/...
250 PM update...
Sprawling high pressure moving out of the Great Lakes Thursday
will be overhead Friday afternoon. All in all a great stretch of
weather with highs mainly in the 70s. One possible downside will
be the amount of cloud cover on Thursday. Looking upstream over
central Ontario, and looking at BUFKIT model soundings, we may be
mostly cloudy especially across central New York. Early stratus may burn
off by late morning, only to be replaced by stratocu. A fairly
typical pattern across our area. More appreciable clear skies are
likely Thursday night through midday Saturday. Our next shot at
precipitation will come late Saturday afternoon. Here though model trends
have been drier, thus I have lowered chances during this time. A
better shot still looks to be Sunday. Read more below.
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
followed wpc guidance which indicates weak upper level troughs and
frontal passages at the beginning and end of this period. Best
chance for convection will be late Saturday night into Sunday when
a surface cold front passes through the northeast. For now kept probability of precipitation in
the high chance category but could increase into the likely category
as the day gets closer. Monday through Tuesday. May be fairly dry
as area will reside between system with brief ridging aloft. Next
front to impact area may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday will
carry chance probability of precipitation for this feature. Temperatures will run between 5-10
degrees above seasonal normals.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
a fairly dry cold front is crossing the terminals at this time with main
impact lower ceilings. At krme/ksyr/kelm, ceilings will generally remain
VFR for the remainder of the afternoon with ceilings around 4k feet. At
kith/kbgm, low MVFR ceilings are expected until late afternoon with
IFR possible through 20z. At kavp, included a tempo group for
moderate showers early this evening although a thunderstorm is possible
but not included at this time. Overnight, skies will remain VFR until late
when another weak surface trough drops through between 09z-14z. During
this period included MVFR ceilings at all terminals but kavp. After
14z ceilings will be primarily low VFR.
West/SW winds at 5-8 knots becoming northwest later this afternoon.
Light winds overnight then northwest around 10 knots on Thursday.
Thursday night-Fri...VFR except for morning valley fog...mainly kelm.
Sat through Monday...possible brief restrictions from scattered rain showers-
thunderstorms and rain mainly on Sunday.