Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
140 am EDT Monday Apr 21 2014

high pressure will bring another fair weather day to the area
Monday...with further warming resulting in highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Clouds will increase Monday night...followed by a
showers Tuesday as a cold front passes. Behind that front...cooler
temperatures are expected through midweek.


Near term /through tonight/...
130 am update...
attempted radiational cooling from mainly clear competing
with fairly robust warm air advection during these overnight hours.
Pressure gradient is such that atmosphere outside of the most
sheltered valleys remains fairly mixed...thus not as cold this
morning as compared to Easter dawn. Though limited...modest radiational
cooling and decoupling will be the low 50s currently
in Rome Syracuse Ithaca and Penn Yan /as of 1 am/ will not last.
Expecting lows to range from middle 30s to middle 40s...mildest towards
the lake plain/New York thruway corridor.

The continued warm air advection will lead to upper 60s to low 70s
for highs this coming day...with sun filtered by some high thin
clouds. Pressure gradient actually relaxes...resulting in boundary
layer winds mainly less than 10 kts and thus light winds today even
where full mixing occurs.

The high clouds thicken tonight...preventing radiational cooling
and thus mild temperatures expected with lows in the 40s to low
50s. GFS model is now the outlier in bringing in upper wave and
approaching front...and resultant quantitative precipitation ahead of 12z Tuesday. I
have sided with consensus of other models...and thus keep tonight
dry except for slight chance west of syr-ith-Elm line very late.
Rainfall with this system will wait until during the day Tuesday.


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
230 PM update...
frontal passage looks to occur Tuesday aftn, more in line with GFS and Euro
with NAM being just a tad too fast. Have upped probability of precipitation to categorical
drg the day Tuesday and progressing from west to east after 14z until
late afternoon as front mvs through. With slow movement to front not
expecting much in the way of non-diurnal temperatures drg the day and have
kept highs around 20z and these can be adjusted as we get closer to
Tuesday. Precipitable water values increases to around 1 inch on Tuesday which is 1-2 South Dakota
above normal for April. Only expecting a good soaking rain with this

Lingering precipitation is expected Tuesday night. 800 mb temperatures drop below 0c across most
of County Warning Area after 06z, but h9 and surface temperatures remain above zero. Have just left
mention of showers, though would not be surprised to see light flurries or
even light snow showers at higher elevations late Tuesday night. Expect
showers will continue into part of the day Wednesday with cooler temperatures expected
behind frontal boundary. Highs will be lucky to reach into the 50s with 800 mb
temperatures dropping as low as -5c.


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
245 PM EDT update...
followed closely to previous forecast. Showers are expected to end
by Wednesday night and a surface ridge will start to build over the central
New York and northeast PA from the west. Thursday is expected to be a
beautiful day as the surface ridge will dominate and temperatures will
rise into the middle 50s across much of the region.

Friday morning the next storm system will start to approach the area
from the west. Differences still exist over timing and the
placement of the upper low... however guidance generally agrees that
rain will start to fall Friday afternoon. Rain shower may continue
through Sunday. Even though there is a chance for rain showers
Fri-sun... temperatures should be able to reach the upper 50s to
low 60s this weekend. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be a
half an inch or lower with this next system.


Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
06z update...
VFR conditions will remain through 06z Tuesday. Only patchy high thin
clouds well above 12 kft above ground level through 00z Tuesday...then some
thickening of those high clouds 00z-06z Tuesday ahead of incoming system.
Winds will be light east-southeast to south depending on terminal this
morning...becoming southwest less than 10 kts during the day...only
to revert back to light east-southeast to south tonight.


Tue-Wed...restrictions as showery front passes Tuesday...then
scattered showers-MVFR ceilings into Wednesday on back side of system.

Wednesday ngt-Thu...VFR.

Late Thursday ngt-Fri... restrictions possible in rain showers.


Fire weather...
130 am update...
as with will be very dry today yet winds will remain
light. A limited increase in moisture will be wiped out by further in the end relative humidity will again bottom out in
the 20s percent range. Sustained winds out of the southwest this
afternoon will be under 10 miles per hour...and even peak gusts will only
eclipse that at times. Given these weather conditions...continued
drying of fuels can be expected today. However...a good wetting
rain is inbound for Tuesday courtesy of a passing cold
front...which will put a hold on fire weather concerns.


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...mdp
short term...pvn
long term...kah
fire weather...mdp