Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1026 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Synopsis...
broad high pressure will build into New England Sunday. The
influence of this high pressure system will keep our weather dry
tonight through Monday. Temperatures will moderate tomorrow into
the upper 50s to middle 60s...and even more so Monday with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Our next good chance of rain will come
Tuesday as a cold front passes with off and on showers expected.

&&

Near term /through Sunday/...
1020 PM update...
made some slight adjustments to sky grids and temperatures in
central to especially southern zones. Overall just a little milder
overnight...thanks to broader-than-expected shield of high thin
clouds...thus preventing as precipitous of radiational cooling
drop off as previously anticipated.

615 PM update...forecast in great shape no adjustments needed.

1 PM update...
1037mb high currently sitting over James Bay with ridge axis
extending down into central Great Lakes will build east tonight into
Quebec toward area of strongest pressure rises. As it does, winds will
become light out of the north and eventually decouple after 06z. Strong
inversion will set up around 1kft by morning with a 3-8f spread in temperatures
between ridges and deeper valleys.

Skies will be mostly clear tonight with just a few cirrus sneaking in overnight
from systems across the southeastern U.S and SW flow coming up through the Midwest.
Winds become srly after 12z Sunday as ridge builds east and ahead of next
system. This will result in 800 mb temperatures incrsg to between +1 (in the east)
and +5c (in The Finger lks). Thus, coolest maxes tomorrow will be across
western cats and warmest across The Finger lakes where high temperatures will range
from 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/...
240 PM update...
srly surface winds will continue Sun night ahead of next system. 500 mb low will lift
out of The Four-Corners region tonight and eventually spread clouds on
the northern periphery of the shortwave ridge as it flattens out Sun night. 12z
guidance has come in quite a bit colder with mins for Monday morning under
mostly clear skies from the southern tier and points south. Warmest temperatures expected
to be in The Finger lakes in SW flow and also increasing clouds.

Monday expected to be warmer than Sunday with highs appchg and/or
exceeding 70 in most locations as 800 mb temperatures warm to +8c. Hipres will
keep system at Bay until close to Tuesday afternoon. Will keep likely probability of precipitation in for
entire day on Tuesday and adjust as needed. With cloud cover and showers
off and on through the day expect temperatures will only be in the 60s for
highs.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
300 PM EDT update...
made minor adjustments to the previous forecast. By Tuesday night the
cold front should be east of the County Warning Area and a Few Lake effect
showers/upslope showers may still be lingering. These showers
should be rain and there is a chance that they may linger
through Wednesday evening. A surface ridge will build back over the
region on Thursday bringing a beautiful and quiet day. This will be
short lived as another system will quickly move into the northeast
on Friday. Large difference still exist within guidance starting on
Friday. Differences consist of timing and the location of the surface
low with this system. A chance for rain will be possible through
Sat night.

Temperatures will slowly rise each day across the County Warning Area and rise
into the low to middle 60s by Friday and Sat. Low temperatures will also
have a slight rising trend as well. Temperatures will be in the
30s Wednesday morning and rise into the low 40s by this weekend.

&&

Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast period
as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Upper moisture
associated with a low pressure system across the American
southeast will supply a Vail of cirrus aloft...with little additional
cloud coverage expected. Northerly winds this evening will weaken
to light and variable overnight before increasing from the
south-southeast between 5-10 kts after 15z.

Outlook...

Sun night to Monday...VFR with local MVFR/IFR if fog develops.

Tue-Wed...showers with MVFR possible.

Thursday...restrictions possible with rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
240 PM update...
relative humidity values recover nicely tonight and then drop to near and
possibly even below 20% during the day Sunday across cny and nepa.
10-hour fuels will remain dry at less than 10%, however winds
will be less than 10 miles per hour during the day as high pressure will be
building into New England.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...pvn
near term...mdp/pvn/rrm
short term...pvn
long term...kah
aviation...cmg
fire weather...