Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
808 PM EDT Friday Sep 19 2014
high pressure is sliding to the New England coast...which will
allow southeast winds to develop and increase clouds across the
area tonight. Patchy fog and drizzle may also occur at higher
elevations...especially the Poconos to Catskills. Winds will then
come more out of the south on Saturday...warming temperatures into
mainly the low to middle 70s for highs. A cold front will bring
showers and a chance of thunder on Sunday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
800 PM EDT update...
high pressure is slowly drifting off to east as previously thought
and is expected to drift far enough east to allow marine moisture
to be advected into the County Warning Area tonight. A strong low level jet will fire up around
04z tonight... which will pump copious amounts of moisture north.
This will result in a dense low level cloud deck to develop tonight
over NE PA and central New York. There is still a decent amount of dry air
aloft. The combination of strong low level jet and very dry air aloft... may
produce drizzle over the higher terrain late tonight/Saturday
Made minor adjustments to the previous forecast on temperatures in near
term. Otherwise previous forecast looks good. For more information
on previous forecast please read discussion below.
215 PM update...
earlier fog and low clouds mixed out pretty quickly and the area
is basking in sunshine courtesy of high pressure. However...that
high is translating to the New England coast. Anticyclonic flow
around it will initiate southeast winds tonight...along with low
level moisture. Thus expecting clouds to increase overnight...with
the saturated layer becoming thick enough at higher elevations
/mainly Poconos- Catskills-Tug Hill/ for patchy drizzle and fog
late tonight into early Saturday morning. This moisture will keep
things much milder tonight with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Flow will veer southerly on Saturday...breaking up some of the
clouds and allowing for warmer air mass to advect into the region.
Highs mainly low to middle 70s except for upper 60s at higher
elevations of western Catskills.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
230 PM update...
main concern will be a cold frontal passage Sunday with showers and
perhaps thunder. Limited instability...yet strong forcing and a
good amount of shear. Height falls and forced ascent of right
entrance region of strong jet...may be able to overcome the
limited instability...to yield some thunderstorms. 0-6km bulk
shear values surge in excess of 50 kts. If thunderstorms manage to
develop...they may contain gusty winds. Potential is enough to now
mention in hazardous weather outlook...yet there is still
uncertainty mainly in regards to if there will be enough
instability. Highs Sunday mainly in 70s.
Upper level trough will still be pulling out Monday...with
northwesterly flow and cold air advection in the low levels. Thus
looking much cooler Monday with stubborn Post-frontal clouds
/especially twin tiers northward/ and perhaps a few sprinkles-
showers. Highs Monday ranging from middle to upper 50s north...to
upper 50s-middle 60s south.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
extended period begins with a weak surface trough passing through late
Monday night into Tuesday. Boundary is moisture starved so will only
carry slight chance probability of precipitation in the far northern County Warning Area. Rest of extended looks
like a great period of early Fall weather with a strong upper
level ridge across the eastern US. Surface high pressure will build south
over the region middle week then move off the New England coast late
week. Temperatures will modify through the period with temperatures running
above seasonal levels by weeks end.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
00z Sat update... the main issue overnight into Sat will be the
extent of a lower cloud deck expected to advance into the region from
the S. At this juncture...we're bringing MVFR ceiling bases into
kavp/kbgm/kelm in the 04-06z time range...then krme/kith from about
06-08z. Ksyr is more questionable with downsloping at play...and as
such...we've only included a tempo group here after 09z.
Gradual improvement is foreseen Sat...as low-level winds slowly veer
from a marine S to southeasterly heading...more into the SW. As a
result...we bring VFR conds back to most of the terminal sites
Surface winds will gradually increase overnight out of the S or
southeast...averaging 5-8 knots by daybreak. On Sat...winds will become
gusty out of the SW (gusts of 22-25 knots likely).
Sat night...widespread MVFR ceilings in moist S/southeast flow.
Sun and Monday...possible restrictions in showers...especially sun.
Tuesday...VFR will likely return.