Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
959 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
it will be chilly tonight with most of the area seeing frost, with
overnight lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. The weekend looks
to be dry through Sunday with cool weather on Saturday then a
warming trend on Sunday. A warm front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Monday. High temperatures near 60
Saturday will rise into the 70s for both Sunday and Monday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
950 PM update...
Little change. Weather going as planned. Skies clearing and winds
on their way to becoming light. Dewpoints dropping into the middle
and upper 20s a little ahead of schedule. Left Saturday alone
since it looks good. Sunny and seasonable under high pressure.
220 PM update...
Main concern tonight remains how cold will we get. In the short
term a few of US will see some light showers over the next few
hours. Highest chance will be in nepa in the vicinity of a cold
front, from roughly near Scranton south. Also some showers now
over northern New York may brush by northern Oneida County through
evening. Otherwise diurnal cumulus will dissipate and a clear sky is
For the most part I stuck with our going forecast of widespread
low to middle 30s for the area, with most of the area under a freeze
warning outside of our usually warmer spots (northern Finger
Lakes/Wyoming Valley of nepa). Despite the overall forecast being
in good shape, fine details will be interesting to watch tonight
in terms of just how cold we get. For one guidance is extremely
cold (mav shows 27 at kelm with the met showing 24!). while our
normally colder spots may briefly drop into the 20s (like kelm and
the Catskills/Oneida county), I feel guidance may be a bit too
cold with widespread 31 to 35 degree readings more likely.
Backward trajectories on the NAM show that our air for Saturday
morning will be coming from just east of Georgian Bay. These
locales held in the 30s this morning and with this type of
trajectory, dew points may be slightly higher than what model
guidance indicates. At the end of the day however with low
dewpoints, a clear sky, and 850s below zero tonight, any sensitive
plants should be covered up. We will be posting a video on
facebook and youtube this evening on some tips for protecting your
Saturday looks great. After a cool start high pressure will
provide US with plenty of sunshine. Some of the warmer spots
should get into the 60s by afternoon, especially the lake plain.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
while remaining in control of the weather...surface hipres has slid east
Sat night and though chilly...does not look like there is the risk
of frost despite the clear skies. Temperatures rebound on Sunday to near
normal as sun continues and the upper ridge builds. Some hi clouds possible late in
the day as a warm fnt begins to mve newrd.
Late Sun night into Monday strengthening cold fnt now draped over the
area. Somewhat confluent up flow develops north of the area building
hipres while a lower and middle level SW flow continues to strengthen
resulting in a good upslope flow to develop showers and isolated trws.Fnt
is slow to mve Monday and shd continue the possiblity of precipitation through the end of
the short term.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
fnt fnly lifts north of the area Monday night lvg warm and humid air
over the region. SW flow surface and aloft will contribute moisture
while daytime heating helps develop lift so despite being under hipres
the risk of showers and trws will continue into the extended period.
Really little change through the period as the fnt over the Midwest trudges
very slowly east. Upper ridge in the western Atlantic stubbornly resists
the fnt and slowly weakens and shunts it off to the northwest. So...
chance of showers and trws continues into Thursday... with the better chance
over the west and northern zones. While continuing above normal...temperatures will
tend to fall later in the period as a slow increases in clouds and mositure
will limt heating.
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A middle level cumulus
deck will dissipate over the next couple of hours and then clear
skies will prevail. High pressure will build over the region
tonight and result in calm and variable winds tonight. Tomorrow
afternoon winds will become westerly around 10 knots. Believe it
is too dry for fog... will amend if necessary.
Sat night-sun...mainly VFR.
Sunday night - Wednesday...restrictions possible in showers and
PA...freeze warning until 9 am EDT Saturday for paz038>040-043.
Frost advisory until 9 am EDT Saturday for paz044-047-048-072.
New York...freeze warning until 9 am EDT Saturday for nyz009-017-018-
Frost advisory until 9 am EDT Saturday for nyz015-016.