Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
239 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
a weak storm system will spread a few showers or thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure will build
into the northeast with clear weather and warmer temperatures.
Near term /through tonight/...
middle-level clouds are taking their time moving east, but eventually
we expect overcast conditions to develop late tonight. This should
preclude fog development.
NAM and European model (ecmwf) each generate light precipitation early Sunday
morning, and we have a slight chance for a shower over the southwestern
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
dissipating wave sliding out of the Midwest will keep a chance for
showers or possibly a rumble of thunder over the forecast area on Sunday.
Convective available potential energy are forecast at only 150-250 j/kg, so instability should be
Ridge axis building out the plains will cross into the Great Lakes
region Sunday night, ending precipitation over New York/PA, and setting
the stage for warming temperatures and fair weather for Monday and
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
generally followed model blend (superblend) except went slightly
warmer for maximum temperatures by utilizing wpc guidance.
Quiet weather continues for the long range as the strongest and
most persist upper level ridge of the Summer will result in mainly
fair weather with well above average temperatures.To start the
period, dry and mainly clear skies persist for Tuesday night and
Wednesday with lows in the 60s and highs in the middle to upper 80s.
While we do keep a slight chance of isolated showers/storms in
for the latter two days of the work week it is Worth emphasizing
that even if any precipitation occurs the majority of the time conditions
remain dry with plenty of sunshine as ridge continues to
dominate. There will be little change in temperature with highs
continuing to remain in the 80s with lows in the 60s...these temperatures
being a good 10+ degrees above average.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
conditions remain VFR through the taf period. This afternoon, just
some scattered to broken cumulus around 4-5 k feet along with some high
cirrus. Cumulus diminishes with middle and high level cloudiness
increasing for tonight into tomorrow. This prevents valley fog
from forming for tonight.
Winds will generally be west/SW this afternoon around 5 to 10 knots
then diminish to light and variable this evening.
Sun afternoon: risk of an isolated shower or storm but if any
restrictions occur they will be brief.
Sun night through thursday: no significant weather expected.
Generally VFR with local restrictions possible due to valley fog
each morning with the most likely location kelm as usual.