Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1235 am EST Thursday Feb 11 2016
lake effect snow will be heavy at times tonight through Thursday
in parts of central New York...generally southeast of Lake
Ontario. Scattered snow showers and flurries will occur elsewhere
with light accumulations. A strong Arctic front will drop through
the region late Friday...bringing the coldest air mass since last
winter. Wind chills will be dangerously low...well below
zero...Saturday through Saturday night.
Near term /through today/...
415 PM update...
low level convergence lake enhanced band has developed on the
South Shore of Lake Ontario...and is now shooting across extreme
northern Onondaga County through central Oneida County.
Elsewhere...cold air advection has steepened lapse rates which
along with a pair of shortwaves is producing scattered instability
snow showers from the twin tiers northward...and even occasional
flurries into the Wyoming Valley of PA. Another convergence
band has developed in northwest PA-western New York...which will carry
a brief squall across some of the twin tiers late afternoon-early
evening. It will not last long...but up to a quick inch of snow
could result along with visibility under a mile.
Up to now...most lift has been under the dendritic growth zone.
That changes with strong cold air advection later tonight through
Thursday...and low level shear also significantly reduces as
boundary layer flow becomes 290-300. Lake effect will be able to
organize more...to focus especially on northern to central
Onondaga...most of Madison...and western to southern Oneida
counties with heavier bands producing 1 to 2 inches per hour.
Winds are also going to pick up Thursday...into 10-20 miles per hour range
with gusts 30-35 miles per hour. Temperatures will be stuck in the
teens...and the snow will be dry and fluffy...very prone to
blowing and drifting. All told...we are still expecting the
warning counties to range from 6-12 inches with locally higher
amounts where bands are most persistent. Northeastern Oneida
County will likely have quite a bit less compared to the rest of
the warning area. No changes to the advisory area either...basically
the zones immediately to the south of the warning counties...for
wide ranging snow amounts /generally 3 to 7 inches...highest
north/. And blowing snow.
Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
430 PM update...
main attention turns to a significant blast of Arctic air...the
coldest since last winter...which will produce dangerously low
wind chills by Saturday.
Before that...lake effect snow will continue into Thursday
evening across the warning zones...but overnight the low level
flow will back well ahead of next front...which will diminish and
Shift Lake effect snow north of the area.
Friday...surface low will track from the upper Great Lakes east
across nearby southern Canada and drag an Arctic front through the
region Friday evening. The front looks primed to pick up Great
Lakes moisture as it drops. It looks quite probable that the front
will be accompanied by a pretty Stout snow squall Friday evening.
While it may only produce a quick inch or so of accumulation...it
will likely come down very abruptly.
Forecast models in great overall agreement on 500 mb trough and
associated upper low dropping into the northeast with 1000-500 mb
thickness prognosticated to only be around 490 dm and 850 mb temperatures around
-30 c...about as cold as is seen around here. Very rude awakening
Saturday morning...with wind chills already well below zero...and
actual temperatures mainly single digits and falling through the
day. Wind chills teens-20s below zero are figured by Saturday
afternoon...some places even colder Saturday night. Unprotected
vulnerable plumbing may experience freezing/breaking...and anyone
not taking proper precautions outside could experience frostbite
hypothermia. This Arctic air mass should be taken seriously.
Dendritic growth layer will actually crash to the ground in this
Arctic air mass...so lake effect will be limited yet dry fluffy
flurries can be expected out of just about any cloud.
Saturday night will be the coldest night with widespread subzero
lows expected...possibly even minus double digit lows...especially
in eastern zones north through Oneida County. Winds look to stay
up due to continuing gradient between low to the east and high to
the west and this will make it feel even colder but may act to
limit temperatures from bottoming out to really extreme values.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
430 PM update...
only some moderation in temperatures expected Sunday as Arctic
high slides east right over the area by late day. Winds will be
significantly less...yet we start the day with subzero
temperatures so very cold anyways. Still expect some lake effect,
though this will tend to be diminishing through the day has the
high moves in. Highs look to range from the single digits through
much of the Catskills north to the Tug Hill with low to middle teens
Pattern will be progressive enough for core of Arctic air to move
out early next week with more significant moderation back to at
least seasonal. Models indicate the next upper trough moving into
the east with low pressure development but there is model
disagreement on timing, track, and intensity. For now, indicate
chance of snow in grids for Monday through Wednesday but there is a
chance low could track far enough west to bring rain to some areas
as early as Tuesday.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
Le band will linger in the syr/rme corridor and bring occasional IFR
conds into Thursday. Band is expeceted to gradually slip soputh and will
bring occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities to ith anbd bgm later in the day.
Weakening flow and drier air will erode the lake effect lvg gnrl
VFR conds to all stations after 00z. Gusty west winds today will
become lighter after sunset this evening.
Thursday night through sun...variable ceiling and visibility restrictions due
to periods of widespread light snow and bands of more intense lake
effect snow...especially northern half. Less coverage and time
affected for the southern areas.
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
Lake effect snow warning until 4 am EST Friday for nyz009-018-