Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
736 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015
it will be dry and quiet overnight. A low will move into western
Pennsylvania Monday...bringing clouds and eventually a chance of
showers to the area Monday afternoon into Monday night. While most
of the time will be dry...there will be a lingering chance of
showers on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching
the area from the Midwest.
Near term /through Monday/...
730 PM update...
forecast on track...with quiet night in store along with deep red
sunset and coppery moon due to wildfire smoke translating all the
way over from northern and western Canada. Meanwhile...upper low
currently in middle Ohio River valley...continues to approach. It
appears that the increasing high clouds will have enough gaps to
allow for some radiational cooling and thus patchy fog in the
valleys of the twin tiers...have added accordingly. Otherwise...no
other changes at this time.
mixture of fair weather cumulus...hi clouds...and light smoke over the area
this afternoon. Still...mostly sunny conds prevail and will continue to do
so into the evening. Next weather maker is an upper low drifting nwrd west of
the mountains into western PA. All models seems to agree that the
feature will weaken and shear in the developing SW flow over the eastern
US. Question remains as to how much precipitation will make it into the
area as the upper frcg weakens.
For the near term...looks like models have backed off on the amount
and timing of the aprchg precipitation shield. Will increases the clouds overnight
but keep only slight chance to chance over the extreme southwestern zones late
in the period in accordance to latest model trends.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
remains of the upper low continues to drift nwrd in the short term. Slightly
lowered heights and surface based instability along with incrsg ll moisture
and temperatures definitely call for chance probability of precipitation through the period. Peak heating
will align with the passage of the WV bringing the best chance for
conv Tuesday afternoon over the western zones...and again on Wednesday as the cold
fnt aprchs. Much of the period shd be dry however...and warm as heights fnly
reach near seasonal levels.
Above mentioned cold fnt is aprchg the area near the end of the period
and likely trigger trws Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures well into the 80s for afternoon hi/S through the period with ridging over
the forecast area.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
extended forecast remains unsettled with a chance for
showers/thunderstorms almost each day. Surface cold front that drops
through the region on Wednesday, stalls out over the Ohio Valley
and Mason/Dixon line. Zonal upper level flow with fast moving
impulses will track across this boundary through the period
keeping the threat for convection in the forecast. The best chance
for precipitation will be in the southern fa, closer to the boundary. Maximum
temperatures will be close to seasonal normals, upper 70s to lower 80s.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
an upper level low over Kentucky will slowly lift northeast as it
weakens tonight and Monday. This feature will bring increasing
middle/high level clouds overnight and into Monday morning. Valley
fog is likely late tonight even with this thickening CI, included
possible IFR visibilities at kelm between 07z-11z. Monday morning a deck
around 4k feet will develop over the southern terminals with a middle deck
at ksyr/krme. At kelm/kavp, included unrestrictive showers after
West/northwest winds around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable overnight.
S/southeast winds on Monday 5-10 knots.
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night...restrictive conditions
possible in scattered showers/thunderstorms.