Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
257 am EST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
lake effect snow will continue over northern New York,
occasionally bringing snow squalls to the region through Friday. A
very cold airmass will keep temperatures much below normal through
Near term /until 6 PM this Evening/...
Lake snows off Ontario have moved north of forecast area at this time, but
are hanging around at the northern Oneida County border. Any
slight fluctuation southward will bring heavy squalls back into
our region. Both the nam12 and GFS Omega fields suggest the band
will be very close to the northern Oneida County border throughout
the day, and the latest wrfarw reflectivity forecast agrees.
Lift through the snow growth region continues to indicate a high
fluff factor to this lake snow. So it will be easy to achieve inch
per hour or higher rates when the band is in our forecast area. With that
mind, will keep the warning intact.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
3 am update...
opted to raise flag for les snow watch over Onondaga County.
Battled over advisory or watch, but ultimately decided that if the
band does make it into the County with its forecast intensity, it
will be easy to exceed advisory accums. Confidence too low to have
issued a warning. Have seen many forecasts of a strong 300-310
flow band end up not materializing with the band remaining north
of the forecast area longer than anticipated. Next shift can
consider an upgrade if the models remain persistent.
230 am discussion...
another cold front will swing through the forecast area this afternoon. The
front will bring a quick shot of light snow. However the larger
effect will be wind shifts causing the Strong Lake band over the
north country to fluctuate north and south.
Early in the day...the front may push north rapidly as bl winds
swing to a west-southwest direction just ahead of the front. However the
passage of the front will veer the wind flow and pull the band
back into northern Oneida County. Atmosphere continues to support
rapid snow accumulation under the band, with just enough low level
moisture, favorable shear, and good lift through the snow growth
Lake Erie band may affect the central southern tier and Finger
Lakes with light, periphery snow showers.
Wednesday night into Friday...another wind shift should get additional
les activity into northern Oneida County, and eventually Onondaga
and Madison when the flow GOES 300-310 early Thursday. Another
ripple in the flow will push the winds back to 280-290 Thursday
afternoon and evening, refocusing the band along the northern
border of Oneida County.
Additional flag(s) may be required to handle the Thursday and
Thursday night activity. With the uncertainty still high, and an
existing flag already up, will hold off on extending or expanding
the warning at this time.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
weak surface low over Maine with Arctic cold front stretching
east-west across central New York Friday morning moving south
through the forecast area during the day. Flow across the lakes
with the upslope into central New York will bring scattered snow showers
or flurries. High pressure noses into central New York Friday night.
Lows will drop down into the single digits especially over eastern
areas as some high clouds from the next system may begin to work
into the west. Saturday will start with the surface high center
due north with a surface ridge south into New Jersey. Looks like a cold
air damming pattern with colder drier reinforcing at the surface
from the north as warm air advection and moisture moves over aloft
ahead of the next storm system.
By Saturday night the occluding weakening low will be up over the
western Great Lakes and Ohio with a deepening low developing off
the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast. Plenty of uncertainty with this system and
followed hpc's lead on it. Put snow in the grids but can't rule
out sleet making it up into the southern tier and a wintry mix
with some ice further south near the Poconos. By Sunday morning
surface low will be near eastern Long Island moving NE so should
be transitioning to all snow on the backside of the storm with
maybe just a little sleet mixed in our southeast zones to start the day.
Temperatures should be below 32. Surface low is off New England by Sunday
night. Upper low though is still to our west with cyclonic flow
over the area. Trough moves across US Sunday night and a secondary
Arctic front moves through.
Monday will see northwest flow and cold air advection leading to multi-
band les through central New York. Monday night the surface high
pressure will move across the area and some clearing of skies and
fresh snow will make for a cold night with some areas likely
getting down near zero though again we are in a fast changing
pattern and models indicate that high clouds may again be
advancing into our western zones ahead of the next weather system.
Tuesday the surface high is over New England and a cold front is
across Michigan and the MS valley moving east.
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
cold westerly flow across the lakes will keep some mainly light les over
the area this morning into the afternoon hours. Flow is expeceted to become more
northwesterly after 00z and bring the bands closer to syr and rme bringing a
chance of IFR conds there. Otherwise...gnrl VFR conds will prevail with
brief MVFR conds possible in snow showers. Cold air advection and tgt gradioent will
allow for gusty westerly winds...even during the nightime hours.
Thursday to Friday...restrictions possible in lake effect snow showers in
central New York, especially krme.
Sat/sun...restrictions possible in snow showers.
New York...Lake effect snow watch from this evening through Thursday
morning for nyz018.
Lake effect snow warning until 6 am EST Thursday for nyz009.