Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
430 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure over the region will bring dry weather today and
tonight. Rain showers will return Friday afternoon and last into
Saturday...as low pressure tracks through New York and
Pennsylvania.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
3 am update...

Today will be dry with little moisture in the entire column. Warm air advection
aloft as an ul ridge and surface high move over the area this evening.
High temperatures warmer but still only in the 50s with 850 temperatures rising
to around 0c. After the ll inversion breaks by 10 am will be well
mixed. Bombing low moving slowly past Nova Scotia tightening the
pressure gradient. Winds in the south and east will be sustained
at 20 to 25 with gusts into the 30s. Just below Wind Advisory
criteria. Enough wind for a red flag warning. See details below.

Tonight under a north to south stretched surface high. Winds
become light. High level moisture starts to come in ahead of a
strong stacked low moving east into the Ohio Valley.

&&

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
3 am update...

Models continue to slow the advance of a strong surface low on Friday.
High temperatures in low to middle 60s but may need to be raised some more
if models slow down clouds. Delayed probability of precipitation until afternoon and might not
start along i81 until sunset. Strong stacked low moves east into
Ohio during the afternoon. The best precipitation will be Friday night as the low
tracks across eastern PA with an inverted trough across New York. Precipitable waters return
to around 1 inch...but rainfall totals remain under half an inch.
Deep lift but ll instability none so convection will be weak with
no thunderstorms.

Rain showers will linger into Saturday as upper level trough becomes
negatively tilted and surface low bombs off the New England coast.
The low will wrap moisture back into the region. Amounts will be
light with the best amounts in New York.

Sat night showers start to pull out with the best chance in the far NE.
Temperatures fall to around freezing with cold air advection. Rain showers may change to
snow before ending. Snow amounts will be next to nothing.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
3 am update...current forecast in good shape just minor temperature
adjustments and capped probability of precipitation in the high chance category late in the
period due to uncertainty associated with upper level low.

315 PM Wednesday update... our nwp suite has reached a decent consensus
with tdy's 12z run in the medium range period...at least in the big
picture. On the large-scale...amplified upper-level ridging is prognosticated
to expand from central Canada northeastward towards Greenland...with a
large...slow moving upper low forming underneath this blocking
ridge...and taking up residence somewhere over the eastern Continental U.S.. the
devil...of course...will be in the details...with the exact
positioning of this upper low determining our sensible weather.

Although...as mentioned above...large-scale agreement is fairly
good...the ec appears to be farther west with the position of the
deep upper low (ms vly) next week...versus the GFS and other models (oh
valley or middle-atl rgn). For now...wpc appears to be leaning towards the
GFS...and thus so will we. As a result...we'll first bring in a
chance of showers late Monday night into Tuesday...with precipitation chances then
lingering for the rest of the period. If the ec solution ends up being
more correct...then precipitation could hold off longer (perhaps towards the
middle of next week).

Temperatures should average near or somewhat below climatology for late Apr (highs in
the 50s-middle 60s).

&&

Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure will provide VFR conditions through this taf period
with just scattered cirrus.

Northwest winds around 10 knots increasing by middle morning to 12-18
knots with gusts 22-28 knots. Winds decreasing quickly early this
evening to 5-8 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday night into Friday...VFR.

Friday afternoon into Sat morning...restrictions possible in -shra.

Sat afternoon through much of Monday...VFR.

&&

Fire weather...
3 am update...
will continue with the red flag warning in the same area. Further
west the winds will be just under criteria. In the far north
precipitation amounts were above a quarter of an inch in the last
5 days. Today min relative humidity falls to around 20 percent. 10 hour fuels
will fall to under 10 percent. Winds will pick up between 8 and 10
am and continue to be gusty into the afternoon. Winds start to drop
especially in The Finger lakes and central southern tier middle afternoon as high
pressure starts to move into the area.

Tonight winds drop to under 10 miles per hour and do not return to the same
strength as today until well into next week. Min relative humidity Friday afternoon
does fall to under 30 percent but rain showers will move in late
in the day. The rain will continue through Saturday keeping the
weekend threat low.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for paz039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
New York...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for nyz045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
Synopsis...tac
near term...tac
short term...tac
long term...mlj/rrm
aviation...rrm
fire weather...tac