Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1246 am EDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
areas of fog are likely after midnight. High pressure will
control our weather Thursday and Friday with dry weather expected.
A strong front will bring a soaking rain to the area Friday night
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
330 PM update...
isolated showers have popped up on the backside of a cut off low
parked over New England. Shower threat will remain isolated
through evening based on higher resolution model guidance. Areas
of dense fog look likely in the valleys, with patchy fog
Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/...
high pressure controls our weather Thursday and Friday with quiet
weather expected. With a decent amount of sun both days, highs
should be well into the 70s. A cold front will bring a beneficial
soaking rani to the area Friday night into early Saturday.
Periods of heavy rain are possible with precipitable waters above 1.5 inches and
warm cloud depths approaching 10,000 feet. I agree with the
overnight shift with leaving thunder out of the forecast at this
time due to lack of instability.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
3 PM update... GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement through this
period. Cold front and associated rain will be pushing well to the
east of the forecast area Saturday night. Cool westerly flow with
850 mb temperatures between 0 and +2 c late Saturday night and
Sunday will be cold enough for some showers east of lakes Erie and
Ontario. Have gone with low chance probability of precipitation in our area on Sunday for
this lake effect with much of the rain likely to be north and
west of our area in westerly flow regime. Dry weather is expected
on Monday then another short wave rotates east through the long-
wave trough over the eastern U.S. On Tuesday bringing another
chance of showers... followed by dry weather on Wednesday.
Temperatures will generally be below normal from Sunday through
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
06z Thursday update... fairly widespread restrictive conds anticipated
through early Thursday...especially 08-13z. For the most part...these
restrictions will be in the MVFR/fuel alt categories...but IFR/below
alt mins are expected again at kelm...as dense fog should settle in
well before daybreak.
During the day Thursday and into Thursday evening...VFR is foreseen area-
wide...with a scattered-broken cumulus field.
Restrictions could develop again late Thursday night at kelm...with fog
formation probable. For now...we've indicated the potential for IFR
after about 05z Friday.
Surface winds at or below 5 knots through late this morning...will increase somewhat
this afternoon to 5-10 knots from the southeast. This evening...southeast winds will stay up
at krme/ksyr/kith/kbgm...with speeds of 8-10 knots. Kelm and kavp
should decouple...with winds turning lgt/vrbl.
Friday...VFR...except for early morning valley fog at kelm. Lower ceilings
are also possible at kbgm/kavp...prior to about 15z.
Friday night to Sat morning...widespread restrictions possible from rain showers.
Sat afternoon through Monday...mainly VFR. Some -shra possible.