Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
416 am EST Friday Mar 6 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure with dry and cold weather will remain into tonight.
Saturday and Sunday, weak frontal boundaries will pass through
the region bringing snow showers and flurries. Snow accumulations
will be minor.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
3 am update...

Weak lake effect snow continues in central New York. The low level
flow has weakened to become light and shifted to the west.
Upstream winds have gone SW. With the Arctic airmass most of the
les is just flurries with no accumulation. The les will weaken the
rest of the morning and die around sunrise in the syr and rme
areas. High pressure building into the region will also squash the
les. This high will be in control today and most of tonight.

Temperatures from 5 above to 10 below will rebound into the upper
teens and lower 20s with mainly clear skies. High clouds come in
late.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
3 am update...

High pressure remains in control tonight as moisture comes in
aloft. The high moves off to the southeast as a surface low drops southeast through
the Great Lakes. Warm frontal moisture and lift will move into the
far north late tonight. Maybe a snow shower in the tug around
sunrise.

The low and SW trailing cold front drops through southeast Ontario and
NE New York Sat evening giving the best chance of snow showers Sat afternoon and
evening in central New York. With the SW ll winds the highest snow
accumulations will be in the NE due to the upslope ahead of the
front then the added lake moisture behind the front. Given the
moisture source and the duration of the event maximum snow amounts Sat
and Sat night will only be 2 to 4 inches in the NE quarter of County Warning Area.
Amounts taper off to the SW with an inch along the New York PA border to
nearly zero in the far south.

Ahead of the front Saturday temperatures will warm to near
freezing then stay up with the clouds and mixing Sat night. Cold air advection is
weak with the front and remains steady through Sun night. High temperatures
Sunday even warmer and in 30s despite the cold front.

Sunday and Sunday night multiple waves aloft and weak surface
fronts go through keeping some snow showers going mainly in central
New York.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
4 am update...
forecast adjusted towards latest wpc guidance. In the case of
midweek highs...slightly lower. Milder pattern shift still in the
cards but operational GFS-European model (ecmwf) models have backed off a bit on just
how mild it will be. Both allow sub-540 decameter thicknesses
/1000-500mb/ to encroach back into the area during the second half
of the week...though the Canadian CMC remains higher. Tuesday-
Wednesday we expect to actually reach climatology and perhaps even
a few degrees above...a feat that occurred very few days in all of
February and only once so far this month.

Previous discussion...
a milder weather pattern is setting up for the long range as the
broad trough that has been in place over the east begins to lift
north. The result will be lows taking tracks to our north bringing
in a warmer westerly flow. To begin the period Sunday night, a
clipper system will move through and bring the potential for an inch
or two of snow, mainly over central NY, before departing early
Monday. The Gem and European model (ecmwf) are stronger and more organized with this
feature than the GFS but in any event a couple to at most a few
inches of snow looks to be the worst case scenario at this time.
Following this system expect fair weather for the remainder of
Monday with seasonal temperatures as highs rise above freezing. Following
this first system the next low and its associated precipitation shield are
prognosticated to track well to our north Monday night into Tuesday which
will bring a warm front through. As a result, expect highs Tuesday
rising into the low to middle 40s for most of the forecast area.

Milder and dry conditions look to prevail through the middle of next
week with a cold front moving down at some point toward the end of
next week. However at this point, a week out, forecast models are
not in good agreement on the timing of this feature.

&&

Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
06z update...
for krme...residual lake moisture will yield very light snow with MVFR-
IFR visible at times 06z-08z...otherwise looking at a very quiet taf
period for all terminals this forecast period. Very light non-
restrictive flakes also to occur at ksyr for a time before dawn.
Very little cloud cover during the day...though starting about 22z
Onward a deck of high clouds 20-25 kft above ground level will move through the
region. Winds either variable or light northwest to SW less than 10 kts
through the period.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Sat-sun-Mon...occasional restrictions from in scattered -shsn as several weak
waves pass through...especially cny terminals.

Tuesday....VFR.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...tac
near term...tac
short term...tac
long term...mdp/pcf
aviation...mdp

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations