Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
729 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014

high pressure will bring another fair weather day to the area on
Monday with highs topping out in the 70s for most of the region. A
cold front is expected to pass through during the day on Tuesday
bringing a widespread soaking rain. Cooler temperatures are
expected by middle-week and then gradually moderate late in the week.


Near term /through Monday/...
5 PM update...
just made some minor adjustments to temperatures/dewpoints and winds. See
previous discussion below.

1 PM update...
quiet weather expected drg the overnight. Surface low sitting up over northern Ontario
this afternoon has draped a cold front into the upper Midwest with plenty of
middle-clouds and area of showers ahead of boundary. At worst, as flow aloft
GOES zonal across the area tonight may start to see a few high clouds
sneak into northern zones after midnight. This will allow skies to go from
mostly clear to pcldy north of the I-86/I-88 corridor. These clouds will serve
to impede radn'l cooling with temperatures struggling in warm advection to
drop much into the 40s over far northwest counties. Further to the south under
mostly clear skies expect deeper valleys to appch freezing.

Skies expected to be mosunny through most of the area drg the day on
Monday. Warm air advection continues in advance of next system slowly
meandering its way toward the region. Expect high temperatures some 10-15
degrees above normal for tomorrow afternoon with highs in the l/M 70s.


Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
230 PM update...
trough will be deepening to our west by 00z Tuesday. 12z guidance
struggles to get any measurable quantitative precipitation forecast into western sections of County Warning Area by 12z Tuesday.
Expect that this deepening will slow things down until after daybreak.
Will delay probability of precipitation by about 3-6 hours but not rmv completely from the
nighttime hours as some weak isentropic lift may be enough to generate
showers toward 10z Tuesday. Incrsg cloud cover will prevent temperatures from dropping
too much overnight with overnight mins several degrees warmer into the u40s
to around 50 in most areas.

Frontal passage looks to occur Tuesday aftn, more in line with GFS and Euro with
NAM being just a tad too fast. Have upped probability of precipitation to categorical drg the
day Tuesday and progressing from west to east after 14z until late afternoon as
front mvs through. With slow movement to front not expecting much in the
way of non-diurnal temperatures drg the day and have kept highs around 20z and
these can be adjusted as we get closer to Tuesday. Precipitable water values increases
to around 1 inch on Tuesday which is 1-2 South Dakota above normal for April. Only
expecting a good soaking rain with this event.

Lingering precipitation is expected Tuesday night. 800 mb temperatures drop below 0c across most
of County Warning Area after 06z, but h9 and surface temperatures remain above zero. Have just left
mention of showers, though would not be surprised to see light flurries or
even light snow showers at higher elevations late Tuesday night. Expect
showers will continue into part of the day Wednesday with cooler temperatures expected
behind frontal boundary. Highs will be lucky to reach into the 50s with 800 mb
temperatures dropping as low as -5c.


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
245 PM EDT update...
followed closely to previous forecast. Showers are expected to end
by Wednesday night and a surface ridge will start to build over the central
New York and northeast PA from the west. Thursday is expected to be a
beautiful day as the surface ridge will dominate and temperatures will
rise into the middle 50s across much of the region.

Friday morning the next storm system will start to approach the area
from the west. Differences still exist over timing and the
placement of the upper low... however guidance generally agrees that
rain will start to fall Friday afternoon. Rain shower may continue
through Sunday. Even though there is a chance for rain showers
Fri-sun... temperatures should be able to reach the upper 50s to
low 60s this weekend. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be a
half an inch or lower with this next system.


Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. High clouds
will sream overhead mainly for New York tafs overnight and Monday am. Next
system moving into the eastern Great Lakes will bring thicker
cirrus to New York tafs with scattered cirrus to kavp. A VFR middle deck will
affect krme and ksyr after 21z.

Winds will be light south to southeast overnight and SW 5 to 10
knots Monday.


Monday night...VFR.

Tue-Wed...restrictions possible as showery front passes Tuesday...then
scattered showers into Wednesday morning on back side of system.

Wednesday ngt-Thu...VFR.

Friday... restrictions possible in rain showers.


Fire weather...
230 PM update...
relative humidity values on Monday will drop down to near 20% in nepa and between
25-30% across central New York. However, south winds will remain
below 20 miles per hour through the day. A cold front is expected to bring a
wetting rain to the region on Tuesday.


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...djn/pvn
short term...pvn
long term...kah
fire weather...