Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1006 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
an upper level disturbance will remain over the area through late
week. This weather system will keep our temperatures cooler than
normal, along with a chance of showers during the afternoons
primarily Wednesday and Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1005 am update...
we have lingered the clouds longer within the sky grids this
morning, and suppressed morning temperatures accordingly. Stratocu
area extending from Lake Erie toward I-81 corridor is proving to
be a tough nut to crack. The model projected burn off has not
occurred to this point. However soundings suggest that we will see
breaks of sun in the next 1-2 hours.
Will continue to assess.
at 4 am...local radar indicate isolated light showers have now
diminished as skies are generally partly cloudy.
Upper level low just east of James Bay will keep a fairly deep trough
over the northeast through late week. Low level instability along
with some moisture will bring the threat for isolated convection
this afternoon in the higher terrain but due to lack of any
triggers almost all areas will remain rain free. Skies will be
partly sunny with maxes ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
upper level trough will remain over the area through this period
keeping region on the cool side. Middle level short waves rotating
around this upper level feature will bring isolated to scattered
showers both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Models indicate some instability
both afternoons so will continue the mention of thunder. By
Thursday, surface high pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will bring a
moderating southwest flow allowing temperatures to rise into the middle and
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
large scale trough will remain fixed over eastern Continental U.S. This period,
with a closed low positioned over Ontario province. The pattern's
amplitude will diminish toward the end of the period.
With this pattern, we expect scattered shower and thunderstorms
activity, mainly during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will
average below normal through Sunday.
Followed HPC guidance with minor temperature adjustments and pop
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
IFR to low MVFR ceilings possible at kith through 14z and outside shot
also at kbgm. Otherwise middle level clouds around 5kft will continue
across the terminals through late this afternoon. Most extensive
cumulus coverage today will be from kith south, with a better shot
at sun coming at syr and rme. Clouds clear out by early tonight.
With a near calm wind and our recent rain, along with overnight
lows dipping into the 40s, valley fog will produce IFR visibilities at
kelm after 07z.
Winds out of the west-northwest today, becoming near calm or light/variable
Wed-Sat...restrictions possible each afternoon...in isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms.