Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
957 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
a large area of high pressure...will be our main controlling feature
for the rest of the work week...bringing rain-free weather...and
slowly warming temperatures.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10 am update...
1024mb surface high will build into the area this afternoon. Cumulus clouds are
starting to develop as of 13z in nearly upslope flow and have changed the
sky grids to mosunny as opposed to straight sun. This should have very
little impact on high temperatures today with afternoon maxes expected to settle
out around 70f, depending on elevation.
Previous discussion below...
330 am update... a much drier air mass will continue to build over the
County Warning Area today...courtesy of expansive surface high pressure over the upper lakes
region. Any residual cloudiness over our southern/eastern zones should be on the wane
by 10-12z...making way for a sunny day.
925-850 mb cold air advection is prognosticated to persist through at least the morning
hours...and thus temperatures today will be on the cool side for middle to late
June (highs in the upper 60s-middle 70s).
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
345 am update... quiet weather is still foreseen this period...as the
combination of surface high pressure and building heights aloft...keep cny/NE PA
rain-free.
The only small wrinkle is Thursday afternoon...as nwp guidance is showing
the development of an inverted low-level trough axis from WV into western/central
PA...collocated with a 925-850 mb Theta-E ridge...and some weak
instability (ml convective available potential energy of 200-400). Our gut feeling is that any isolated-
scattered shower activity will stay removed from our forecast area...and mainly over
the mountainous areas of western/central PA.
After chilly temperatures Wednesday night/early Thursday am (lows well down into the
40s most areas...maybe even a few upper 30s in some of the normally
colder vlys)...we should see a moderating trend start on
Thursday...with afternoon highs from the middle 70s-lower 80s. By Friday afternoon...many
areas should reach the Lower-Middle 80s.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
12z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) exhibit some differences in the pattern
during the weekend with the European model (ecmwf) a bit slower building an upper
ridge northeast from the Central Plains toward the northeast. The
European model (ecmwf) forecast would indicate northwest flow and scattered thunderstorms
on the northeast edge of the ridge... while the GFS shows stronger
ridging and a dryer... warmer pattern. Have leaned slightly toward
the European model (ecmwf) with this forecast which also matches well with the HPC
guidance... indicating a chance of thunderstorms through the weekend.
Regardless of which model is correct it looks like the ridge will
eventually build east bringing a period of very warm weather
early next week... along with scattered mainly afternoon
thunderstorms.
&&
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
630 am update...VFR will prevail through 12z Thursday. Fog at ith
expeceted to dspt by 13z...otherwise mainly sky clear today and tonight. Fog checklist
for Elm tonight shows mixed results...so indicated possiblity of brief
MVFR there towards daybreak. Winds this afternoon becmg nearly 10-15
kts...l&v tonight.
Outlook...Thursday through Sunday...primarily VFR, but restrictions are
possible Saturday and Sunday in shra/tsra.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...mlj
near term...mlj/pvn
short term...mlj
long term...mse
aviation...
