Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
725 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
a high pressure system will briefly build across the region
tonight and Wednesday...to bring dry seasonable weather. A cold
front may bring a few showers Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Behind this frontal system...another large area of high pressure
will take control...with dry weather returning...along with cool
temperatures Thursday night and Friday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
730 PM update...
strato-cumulus has clrd across most of the area as of 23z and expect this
trend will continue. Temperatures are currently in the M/u50s and dropping
quickly under clear skies and lightening winds. River valleys look as though
they will drop below the cross-over temperature by around midnight thus will
continue to mention areas of fog in valleys. Have tweaked hrly T/dew point
grids with lows still on track to dip close to 40f except in areas
affected by fog.
Previous discussion below...
2 PM update... skies are beginning to clear late this afternoon across
Our Lake plain and western Finger Lakes counties in cny. As drier air
builds southeastward through this evening...and low-level instability is lost...SC
should dissipate area-wide...leaving mainly clear skies.
Despite good radiating conds overnight...we don't anticipate
frost...as the air mass doesn't support it...with surface dew points in the
40s well back through southern ont at this time. However...given recent
rainfall and favorable time of year...twin tier River Valley fog is
likely later tonight into early Wednesday.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
210 PM update... overall...a quiet pattern is foreseen...featuring a
zonal flow regime in the northern stream...and a lack of any sig
moisture in our neck of the Woods.
Wednesday is shaping up to be a fine day...with plenty of sunshine...and
afternoon temperatures recovering well into the 60s...owing to some low-level
warm air advection beginning after 12-15z.
As a shortwave dips southeastward into the northestern Continental U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday...a
reinforcing surface front is prognosticated to drive through the region. As
alluded to above...moisture will be lacking with this system...so
only widely scattered -shra are expected later Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Later Thursday...strong low-level cold air advection should ensue Post-fropa...with SC development
likely from a lake response and upslope northwesterly flow...at least as
far southward as the twin tiers.
Thursday ngt's temperature forecast is a bit tricky...as it will depend on how
quickly any residual SC clears out in the evening. Right now...we're
leaning towards fairly rapid clearing...with low-level winds weakening
and veering around to the north-northeast...and plenty of dry air available just above
the blyr. Given a chilly air mass...this should lead to fairly
widespread frost development...and we'll continue to highlight this
potential in the severe weather potential statement.
Friday looks like another nice day from this Vantage pt...with
abundant sunshine...and moderating afternoon temperatures (highs ranging from
the upper 50s-middle 60s).
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the extended period begins with a relaxation of the long wave
pattern. A zonal, northwest flow will persist into the
northeastern U.S., While a surface high sits over New England and
eastern New York.
A storm system will drop out of Canada late Saturday and push
showers across NY/PA. This cyclone will stall over lower Ontario
and become stacked with a strong, closed upper low. The presence
of the dual systems will keep showers flowing into New York/PA into
early next week.
Aviation /23z Tuesday through Sunday/...
precipitation has exited the region but there remains some low
stratocu to burn off. A broken 2500 to 5000 feet deck is forecast
through the afternoon hours, with rapid clearing expected to take
place around sunset.
Another round of River Valley fog is forecast for Wednesday
morning. The best chance for IFR fog will be at kelm after 7z.
Lighter fog is possible at kith and kbgm.
Wednesday to Sat...VFR except for morning IFR fog, especially at Elm.