Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
353 am EST Friday Mar 7 2014
fair and dry conditions will continue today as high pressure
centered over northern New England influences our region.
Southwest flow in advance of a storm system across the northern
Great Lakes will allow for near normal temperatures...with highs
warming into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will be on the
increase tonight in advance of a cold front that will slide across
the region on Saturday. As this feature passes...expect developing
light rain and snow showers by Saturday afternoon with a
continuation through early Sunday. Below normal temperatures will
then return on Sunday as cooler air filters into the area.
Near term /through Saturday/...
noticeably warmer temperatures out of The Gate this morning as upper-level
cloudiness combines with increasing warm air advection out ahead
of a northern stream trough approaching from western Ontario. For
the most part...early morning temperatures range from the upper teens to
lower 20s...with the coldest readings found from the the western
Catskills north through the Mohawk Valley and southern tug. In
terms of weather features of interest...early morning surface map
showing high pressure stretching from northern New England south
through the lower mid-Atlantic...with a 1001-mb low just off the
South Carolina coast. This low will continue tracking northeast
today...but the aforementioned ridge of high pressure will ensure
nothing more than some upper-level cloudiness impacting our region.
Clockwise rotation around the eastern New England high has
allowed for a marine layer to penetrate inland this
morning...with low ceilings noted across much of the tri-state
region. These clouds will continue advancing northeast across
portions of our northeast PA counties this morning before they
begin breaking up by late morning and early afternoon. With warm
air advection firmly in place...have elected to raise high temperatures a
few degrees from the southern tier north through The Finger lakes
and western Mohawk Valley where upper 30s to lower 40s are possible.
Further east and south...the combination of marine layer clouds
along with cooler 850-hpa temperatures should only allow highs to warm
into the middle 30s. Regardless its still an improvement over
temperatures seen in recent weeks!
Not much to speak of overnight except for increasing clouds out
ahead of the Canadian upper trough. With warm air advection
continuing along with increasing clouds aloft...expect overnight
lows to range from the upper teens out east to lower 20s for many
areas west of the I-81 corridor.
Cold front associated with aforementioned Canadian upper wave to
begin moving through the area Saturday afternoon. Forecast models
show developing quantitative precipitation forecast as boundary sinks across the area with
corresponding thermal profiles offering a mix of rain and snow
based purely on temperatures. Will have to reevaluate with later
model runs as this mornings suite suggest little to now saturation
within the snow growth region....but good saturation from say -10c
down to the surface. Typically under these scenarios we see very
small ice Crystal formation thus will offer a rain/snow mix across
The Finger lakes and northern tier before temperatures warm enough to
changeover to pure rain by middle/late afternoon. Regardless...each
model run has shown a gradual weakening trend with this front as
best upper-level forcing will remain well north in eastern
Ontario/western Quebec. With low-level convergence into the front
also appearing very weak...have elected to maintain chance probability of precipitation only.
All told...would not be surprised if some areas see no precipitation at
all as boundary just doesn/T have much going for it. Temperatures on
Saturday should warm into the middle to upper 30s across most
places...with lower 40s possible across the lower Wyoming Valley where
residence time of warmer air will persist the longest before
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday/...
315 PM update...
Our area will remain in the Sweet spot for quiet weather with high
pressure ridging through the area right into Saturday morning. Our
next feature of interest will be a weak front that will move
through Saturday night. Ahead of this front low level moisture
increases by Saturday afternoon and is with US most of Saturday
night. While we have plenty of moisture to work with, actual lift
will be very limited especially from kbgm south and east.
Continued to show mostly slight chance probability of precipitation during this period for
the areas mentioned above. From The Finger lakes through the
western Mohawk Valley our previous forecast of 30-40% looks good
as this area stands the best chance for at least some lift. P-type
will be mostly snow, but some very light rain may mix in late
Saturday afternoon with 850 temperatures near 0c or slightly above, and
boundary layer temperatures near 40. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts look low, so we are not
expecting more than a dusting Saturday night.
Behind the front temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler Sunday, or
slightly below normal for mid-March. In our fast northwest flow
our next weak system approaches by Sunday evening. Included slight
chance probability of precipitation for light snow far north given the more aggressive
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
215 PM update...
long-WV troffiness continues east of the MS River Valley. With northwest flow remaining
across the area expect chance for precipitation every 24-36 hours. Best chance for
precipitation looks to exist Tuesday morning with cold front. Aftr fropa, temperatures drop
to below normal climatological values.
As for system prognosticated to impact northestern U.S. Around middle-week timeframe
12z GFS forecast Lee-side cyclogenesis early in the week, then mvs surface
low through Ohio/Tennessee valleys Wednesday. Surface hipres set up across Canada looks to
supply continual cloud nearly flow to County Warning Area. At this time, it appears that
most of the County Warning Area will experience all snow per GFS. 12z Euro is similar
but slower with system and mostly snow for cwa, while 12z CMC takes
surface low to our west. All in all, expect some sort of system drg the
middle of the week but way too early to decide when and eventual
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR expected through the forecast cycle with the only possible
exception being avp where a marine layer may temporarily work
into the area after 12z. For now...have advertised potential with
a tempo group with this package...and will monitor upstream trends
before becoming a bit more deterministic with the next issuance.
Expect weak southeast winds between 5-8 kts during the day with a
gradual increase in middle/upper-level clouds after 00z as upper
trough axis approaches.
Sat-Tue...possible restrictions from weak disturbances and scattered