Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
247 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015
brief high pressure will bring moderating temperatures and mostly
sunny skies to the region today. A frontal system will push snow
and rain showers into New York and PA tonight and Monday.
Near term /through today/...
210 am update...
mostly sunny skies are forecast today. Temperatures will moderate
as the cold pool gets cut off from its source region and the ul
trough exits to the northeast. 925mb temperatures will remain much colder
than normal however, with readings from -3c to -6c over the region
at 18z. Therefor maximum temperatures will struggle through the 30s.
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
an upper atmospheric trough will push into New York and PA tonight.
Moisture remains limited with this system, though the near lake
counties will see moisture enhancement and a bit more in the way
of snow fall. Temperatures are expected to rise after midnight, so
the window of opportunity for decent snows across the central and
southern forecast area is probably before 6z-8z. Temperatures will remain a
little colder into northern Oneida city...hence the higher snow
fall totals. A general half inch is expected over central NY,
with 1 to 2 inches over the far north.
Temperatures will rise into the 40s Monday, changing the snow
showers to rain showers.
Activity will taper off Monday night, and then another system will
cross the region on Tuesday. Snow showers in the morning will
change to rain showers in the afternoon as temperatures reach the
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
2 am update...
Wednesday and Thursday little change. Still model divergence Friday forward.
Canadian and Euro similar with a cold front on Friday that stalls
over the area. A strong low moves NE along it with more rain Friday
night and Sat. GFS still pushes the cold front through with the low
well south Friday night. This has a big effect on the probability of precipitation and temperatures.
Leaned toward wpc and upped the temperatures and probability of precipitation some Thursday night to
high pressure will move back in Tuesday night with any rain/snow
shower diminishing in the evening. Lows by Wednesday morning will
be in the 20s to low 30s for most areas with teens likely across
Oneida County. Wednesday will be bright but cool as the ridge
crests over the region with highs ranging from the middle to upper
30s north to the 40s south.
The next low pressure system tracks well to our north
and west through the Great Lakes on Thursday as the trough over
the east relaxes and the flow aloft becomes more west-southwest. This system
will bring a chance of showers to the area by late Thursday along
with warmer temperatures on a southerly flow with highs generally in the
50s. Models diverge beyond this time as the GFS drags a cold
front through heading into Friday which could potentially put the
area on the cold, snowier side of the next low to move north and
east for the beginning of next weekend. Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) is not
as progressive with this cold front heading into Friday and is
also much stronger with the next low...taking it to our west which
would result in rain and continuing milder temperatures. In any event
pattern over the east looks to be active for the end of next week
into next weekend.
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
130 am Sunday update...
Skies have cleared as the large surface high moves in from the
west. A weak northwest flow has formed a narrow band of MVFR clouds off
of Cayuga Lake into Ithaca. This should break up towards sunrise.
Today clear then a middle deck coming in this evening. Snow should
hold off until after 6z but might be close at syr.
Light and variable or northwest at 5 kts early this morning. Winds
shifting to the west at 4 to 7 kts around 14z. This afternoon winds
shift more to the S most sites and southeast syr/rme.
Sun overnight to Tuesday night...occasional restrictions in rain/snow
as weak waves move through.
Wednesday to Thursday morning...VFR.
Thursday afternoon...possible restrictions in rain showers.