Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
406 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
a storm system moving through the upper Great Lakes and eastern
Canada will give the region showers and thunderstorms late tonight
through Sunday. On Labor Day, high pressure will provide partly
sunny skies and warm temperatures but there may be a passing
shower or thunderstorm.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
at 4 PM...latest satellite pics show marine layer continues across
NE PA, western Catskills and local southern tier. This broken/overcast
deck may break up by early evening but will reform overnight in
continued southerly flow. Rest of forecast area is mostly sunny with temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Late this afternoon into the early evening an isolated shower or
thunderstorm may develop in western New York where cape values are
around 1000 j/kg. If this occurs they may track across The Finger
lakes and lake plain but any coverage is expected to be limited
and activity will be moving into a more stable airmass.
Late tonight the upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes and
associated weak surface trough will approach the area. A significant
middle level short wave currently in the Tennessee Valley will lift
northeast in advance of these features and enhance activity toward
daybreak. Continued with trend of increasing probability of precipitation well after
midnight into the likely category by daybreak across much of the
northern/western County Warning Area.
Due to juicy airmass overnight lows will range in the middle to upper
60s and feel muggy.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
Sunday...leading short wave mentioned above will track across the
region during the morning and early afternoon period. This
feature will likely be the focus for convective activity and since
it begins fairly early during the daylight period significant
destabilization is unlikely. If any area receives heating during
the morning hours it would be the far southeast but even here a marine
layer may be in place. If enough cape is realized some storms
could produce brief gusty winds as middle level winds fields are
rather strong. With precipitable waters around 2 inches any convection will be
accompanied by heavy downpours but system looks progressive
reducing the threat for training. Will continue to mention in severe weather potential statement
both heavy downpours and brief gusty winds. Will advertise likely
probability of precipitation and chance for thunderstorm with heavy rain also included in grids.
Sunday night...convective activity may linger into the late evening
period across the far southeast forecast area as another short wave tracks northeast
into the middle Atlantic region. Otherwise rest of area will be
mainly dry by evening with skies becoming partly cloudy but
continued mild in humid airmass.
Monday...ridging both aloft and at the surface will make for a partly
sunny day and humid conditions. Maxes will range in the lower 80s.
There is no trigger but due to moist somewhat unstable airmass will
continue mention of low chance probability of precipitation.
Monday night/Tuesday...next cold front will cross the area on
Tuesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. By
afternoon activity will be widespread across central New York with
scattered convection in NE PA. Maxes on Tuesday will range in the
lower to middle 80s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
little change to the medium range forecast which leans heavily on wpc guidance.
Cold front will be moving out of the region on Tuesday night with some lingering
rain showers. High pressure builds in for the latter part of the work week. By
next weekend...next frontal system could bring another round of
shra/tsra...although timing still a bit uncertain. Main theme will be
a continuation of above normal temperatures as southern/southeast U.S. Ridge builds by
the middle of next week.
Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/...
varying conditions across the bgm County Warning Area this afternoon with MVFR persisting
at bgm/avp due to stratus...and VFR elsewhere with scattered middle cloud.
Think bgm could break out for a while this afternoon to VFR as it's on
the northern periphery of the lower clouds...can't rule out brief VFR at
avp if deck lifts a bit this afternoon but appears less likely there.
Later this evening...stratus deck is expeceted to northward into central New York
(ith/Elm/bgm) in the 03-06z time frame...and possibly into rme. At this time
think VFR will continue at syr until very late tonight. Expect an area of
rain showers/embedded thunderstorms and rain to be working northeastward into central New York by daybreak
with wdpsrd IFR/MVFR across central New York. MVFR ceilings at avp but main
batch of precipitation should remain northwest of them through 18z Sunday...so tempos
for -shra there. Winds this afternoon srly 10-15 kts...dcrsng to 5-10
kts this evening...becmg southwesterly on Sunday 5-10 kts.
Sun night...MVFR and patchy IFR due to ceilings.
Monday/Monday night...mainly VFR.
Tuesday/Tuesday night...restrictions in scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain mainly aftn/evng.