Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
645 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
light snow will move out quickly this morning leaving some lake
effect snow showers and flurries over the area. High pressure will
build in tonight giving US another clear and cold night. A
complex storm system will move into the Great Lakes Tuesday and
Wednesday and bring snow and mixed precipitation into the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
northwest flow developing at this time bhd the surface trough and is pushing the remains of
the light snow east of the area. West-northwest flow continues through the day and
develops some weak le...especially off the eastern end of Ontario. Bst chance
for heavier snow is expeceted to stay north of the forecast area...with
light snow showers scross Onondaga and Oneida through much of the day.
Cold air advection not all that imprsv and with at least some heating from partial
March sun...temperatures shd rebound nicely with some of the metropolitan areas
and deeper valleys near freezing for hi/S.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
hipres ovhd tonight will allow temperatures to tumble...especially early under clear
mainly clear skies. A few high clouds will mve in toward dawn.
Models have slowed the advance of the precipitation shield Tuesday as the next
system aprchs. Expect snow to break out from west to east after 18z.
Expect a pretty good snow burst as it arrives in the very strong
warm air advection pattern bringing a slug of Gulf moisture up and over the cold air
in place over the forecast area.
Continued strong warm air advection Tuesday night brings more lift and moisture...but also a
very warm layer at and above 800 mb. Below...very cold air locked in place by
the terrain and cold and snowy surface. This will result in a period of ice pellets
and eventually freezing rain into early Wednesday.
Flow becomes more westerly after around 09z ending the warm air advection and limiting
the lift. As a result...precipitation shd begin to taper off and sndg
cools. By 12z there/S still and elevated warm layer...but precipitation will
be spotty. NAM seems to be the warmest of the models but models
may be under estimating the tenacity of the cold air...especially east of
i81 and over the northern zones. Those areas may not see 32f through the
After sunrise Wednesday...despite the weak cold air advection...mixing and limted sunshine
shd allow temperatures to rise into the 3os lvg some scattered rain and snow
Fnt stalls southeast of the forecast area early Thursday and WV moving newrd looks to
spread precipitation back into the area. At this time it looks like the heaviest
precipitation will stay just south and east of the area...but there/S the
chance of some accumulating snow once again over nepa and in the
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
400 PM EST update...
closely followed wpc guidance...
Le snow showers may linger through the late morning hours on Thursday
until high pressure takes it grip over the region. Weak high
pressure then builds over the region by Thursday night. Surface high
pressure is expected to remain through the extended and maybe just
hold on enough to bring mostly dry weather for much of the
extended forecast period. There may be a slight chance for snow on
Sat night as a weak upper level wave passes by...chances are slim so
kept 20 probability of precipitation.
Temperatures slowly rise towards seasonal norm values towards the end of
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
highest aviation impact today will be at ksyr with lake effect
snow producing IFR visibilities and below alt mins through 20z. Beyond
that lake effect snow weakens and eventually ends toward 03z. At
krme we may approach IFR visibilities briefly through middle morning but the
wind flow is expected to keep the more persistent snows just, just
south of the terminal.
At kbgm and kavp an area of light snow will swing through the
terminals producing brief IFR visibilities this morning in very light
snow. We should remain above alt mins during this period.
Elsewhere MVFR ceilings will persist through middle morning at kelm, but
tend to hang on elsewhere through afternoon. VFR by early tonight.
Early Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Late Tue-Wed...restrictions from -sn to start late Tuesday...then a
wintry mix Tuesday night...to perhaps a period of rain by early Wednesday.
Thu-Fri...restrictions possible from snow showers...mainly cny terminals.