Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1010 am EDT Monday Mar 10 2014
warmer weather can be expected today with temperatures climbing
into the middle 40s today. Another weak frontal system will trigger
scattered light flurries or sprinkles across central New York
tonight... then even warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday
with highs in the 40s to near 50. Winter will return abruptly on
Wednesday as a storm system brings snow or mixed precipitation and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10 am update...
warm SW flow continues in wake of warm front and should persist through the
day. Temperatures have warmed into the m30s west of the I-81 corridor as of
13z. Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue across County Warning Area through the afternoon as
low-level moisture is trapped under inversion, thus have lowered maximum temperatures
by a degree of two. Have also rmvd probability of precipitation through 21z today as most precipitation
should have a hard time reaching the ground until WV approaches after this
time from the northwest.
Previous Disco below...
Updated at 415 am... as of 4 am a warm front was located from just
west of syr to just east of bgm and avp moving slowly east. Some
light snow has fallen east of the warm front across northern New York
early this morning with a few light flurries farther south in the
syr area. Radar indicating plenty of echoes across the area but
with very high dew point depressions very little precipitation is
reaching the ground. Scattered flurries or light snow showers will
tend to diminish later this morning as the warm front pushes off
to the east. Some breaks of sun may reach portions of the area
this afternoon but still expecting more clouds than sun.
Temperatures are already up into the lower 30s early this morning
and lower to middle 40s look like a good bet for most of the area by
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
another weak short wave will track north of the area tonight
accompanied by a trough of low pressure and a few light rain and
snow showers mainly across the northern third of the forecast
area. Temperatures will be marginal for rain vs. Snow over central
New York tonight but amounts will be very small with minimal impacts.
Tuesday will feature a taste of Spring with some drying behind the
short wave allowing for the return of some sunshine. Weak cold
advection will be occurring but that atmosphere will be fairly
warm and temperatures will climb to between 45 to and 50 in most
areas. Some clouds will spread east across the area later in the
day ahead of system that will bring a harsh return to winter-like
conditions on Wednesday.
Models have come into reasonably good agreement on a significant
winter weather event for the northern middle-Atlantic Wednesday into
Thursday. A strong short wave is forecast to drop south-southeast
from central Canada and phase with part of system ejecting
eastward from the central rockies. The phasing will occur over the middle-
Mississippi Valley and will induce surface low pressure
development over Missouri during the day Tuesday. This low is
forecast to track east and intensify reaching the middle-Atlantic coast early
Thursday. Considering that the main impacts from this storm are
still 2.5 days away the models are in good agreement with this
scenario and all models forecast a moderately heavy precipitation
event Wednesday through Wednesday night for our area with quantitative precipitation forecast
ranging from 0.60 to 1.2 inches area-wide.
Some uncertainty remains with the temperature forecast and
resulting precipitation type associated with this system . The
European model (ecmwf) is the warmest model indicating that the 850 mb zero degree
temperature contour will reach southern New York during the day
Wednesday... while the NAM/GFS and sref indicate a colder
solution. The CMC model is also slightly colder than the European model (ecmwf). A
consensus forecast from these models would indicate a mix of
precipitation on Wednesday across northeast PA with all snow
across central New York. Temperatures plunge late Wednesday as the low
pressure center reaches the East Coast and very cold air
associated with Arctic high pressure is drawn south. Therefore any
mix is expected to change to all snow by early Wednesday evening
then snow will tapper to snow showers overnight Wednesday.
Based on this scenario have issued a Winter Storm Watch for
central New York where confidence is highest for 7 inches or more of
snow. Significant snow may also occur across northeast PA but with
the potential for mixed precipitation lowering amounts have held
off on the watch for that area. Gusty winds and rapidly falling
temperatures Wednesday night will add to the wintery and hazardous
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
behind departing late winter storm very cold air will drop into
the northeast with maximum temperatures on Thursday only in the teens, about
20 degrees below normal. Scattered snow showers and flurries will
continue especially over The Finger lakes region due to lake
effect snow showers under northerly flow. After a very cold
Thursday night with reading in the single numbers temperatures will
rebound Friday and Saturday under southwest flow before the next
cold front passes the region late Saturday. Mixed rain/snow
showers are expected on Saturday with frontal passage followed by another
shot of cold Canadian air Sunday into the early part of next week.
Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
a relatively moist southwest flow will continue through late
tonight before a weak cold front passes toward daybreak. Ceilings
through the period will range from MVFR to low VFR except for kavp
where middle clouds may persist from early afternoon until frontal passage.
Southwest around 5-10 knots becoming northwest late in the taf
Wed/thurs...possible MVFR/IFR restrictions in snow.
New York...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning for nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-