Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
847 PM EST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
very cold air will filter down from Canada through Wednesday. A storm
system moving through the Great Lakes will spread snow across New York
and PA late Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
850 PM update...
snow showers have moved out as forecast, so will allow probability of precipitation to
drift below slight chance over the next 2 hours.
Main change to grids overnight was to re-import winds, which
seemed a bit on the hot side on earlier model runs. Except for
gusty winds on the hills, most locations will see their wind speed
drop to 6 to 9 miles per hour overnight. Apparent temperatures will remain
warmer than Wind Chill Advisory criteria, although northern Oneida
County may come close for 1-2 hours.
140 PM update...
lopres is spinning off of Cape Cod as of 18z. Disjointed band of
snow is rotating into eastern New York and western cats and separated from main band
of snow associated with noreaster. This is likely associated with 300 mb jet
entrance region and is evident on WV imagery. As jet streak lifts
north this afternoon thinking is that snow has made it as far west as it
is going to get.
Snow will gradually wind down and pull off to the north and east drg
the evening hours with dry air working in from the west. This will keep County Warning Area
dry after 06z and allow skies to clear for areas west of the I-81
With a supply of nearly air expect temperatures to be on the cold side of
met/mav numbers. High pressure will begin to build in from the west
tonight though winds will still be high given the tight pressure
Wind chill temperatures will flirt with advisory criteria tonight but should
remain warm enough to preclude any headlines.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
3 PM update..
high pressure will continue to build in on Wednesday leaving mosunny
skies for the area drg the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will remain below normal
tomorrow with highs expected to remain in the 20s with teens in the
normal cldr areas.
Clipper system will dive across the northern plains tomorrow night with
hipres in control of County Warning Area through 12z Thursday. Expect a gradual
increase in clouds from the west. Warm advection precipitation will begin to spread
light snow into the area by mid-morning. Forcing certainly looks to be
present along with cold temperatures so have gone categorical snow for Thursday
night. Northwest flow behind front will mv in for Friday with lake effect expected
drg the day. 800 mb temperatures drop to -18 and that will be cold enough for lake
snows to fall in 310-320 flow.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the pattern will remain cold and active through the long range. To
begin the period, northwest flow behind departing low pressure will usher
in very cold air Friday night with some weak lake effect across
the northern counties. Due to the forecast profiles being too cold
for good snow growth and lowering inversion heights this does not
look to be a significant lake effect event. Lake effect diminishes
for Saturday with fair but cold conditions as highs will only be
in the teens.
Clouds begin to increase Saturday night with the next system
likely arriving by late Sunday into Monday with more snow as low
pressure moves up from the south. Expect More Lake effect and very
cold temperatures to follow behind this system by late Monday into
Tuesday as temperatures remain below average.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
weak Finger Lakes band across ith and bgm aupporting mostly scattered
clouds and VFR flurries will continue to weaken over the next few hours
lvg VFR conds overnight. Low off the new eng CST will keep northerly winds
up with a few gusts this evening. Mainly clear skies continue into Wednesday
Wednesday night / Thursday am...VFR.
Thursday afternoon to Friday...IFR visibility/MVFR ceiling restrictions from -sn.
Sun...possible restrictions from snow by late day.