Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
651 am EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014
high pressure in the area today will keep conditions dry. A cold
front will then bring some clouds and a chance for sprinkles late
Wednesday night and Thursday. A cool and clear Thursday night may
bring a significant frost to the region before south winds set up
for Friday and the weekend...bringing milder temperatures and a
chance for showers.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak high pressure over the area today will maintain fair weather.
Typical early morning fog and low clouds will mix out to mixed sun
and some higher clouds as upper levels still hold a broad cyclonic
flow across the region. Some warm air advection ahead of next frontal feature
should boost temperatures into the middle-upper 60s...similar to yesterday.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
weak and fairly moisture starved frontal boundary drops across the
region later tonight and Thursday. Models...esply GFS/European model (ecmwf) may
have sufficient middle level moisture and enough dynamic support to
squeeze out some sprinkles from a middle deck. Our previous pop
forecast seemed reasonable at generally less than 25 percent. We had
mention of isolated showers...and I made the esoteric move to soften
that to sprinkles. Later shifts could remove mention altogether if
drying trend continues like the 00z NAM.
The bigger story...if you will...is the advance of a Continental
polar high dropping straight out of the northern Canadian prairies
and arriving here Friday with a frost or freeze situation for
agricultural interests. This could set up an excellent radiational
cooling night...in addition to the advection of a significantly
cooler airmass. We already have ample frost covering the forecast
area grids by daybreak Friday...and we will have to monitor the
trends in the temperature forecast as some spots are just touching
freezing in the guidance. Stillsome details to work out with
timing of residual stratocu dissipation in the evening...and
boundary layer winds...so will continue to provide frost/freeze
guidance only in the hazard weather outlook.
Friday into Friday night looks like another quiet period from this
Vantage pt...with abundant sunshine...and moderating afternoon temperatures
(highs ranging from the upper 50s-middle 60s).
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the extended period begins with a relaxation of the long wave
pattern. A zonal, northwest flow will persist into the
northeastern U.S., While a surface high sits over New England and
eastern New York.
A storm system will drop out of Canada late Saturday and push
showers across New York/PA through Sunday. Medium range models continue
to offer significant differences in solution potential and
timing...limiting much certainty in the Sunday /day 5/ forecast.
Did nudge up probability of precipitation just a bit higher in the chance category to align
our grids along certain weather forecast office borders. This cyclone will stall over
lower Ontario and become stacked with a strong, closed upper low.
The presence of the dual systems will keep showers flowing into
New York/PA into early next week.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
Valley fog and IFR conds at Elm have been limited by lake clouds drifting
off Erie this morning. Hipres and mixing shd end any leftover fog
and clouds bringing VFR conds to all stations today. Tonight...fog shd
return to Elm...and perhaps ith...as clear and calm conds continue
Thursday to sun...VFR except for morning IFR fog, especially at Elm.