Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
821 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015
isolated showers will taper off tonight, as high pressure builds
into the northeast. The trend will be for warming temperatures and
fair skies through much of the coming week.
Near term /through Monday/...
815 PM update... we'll be extending the mention of isolated-
scattered showers/storms a bit longer into the late evening hours,
as per latest satellite/radar trends, as well as high-resolution
model data. Although weakening/shearing out with time, an upper-
level trough is still evident from the lower lakes region eastward
to New York this evening. This system should provide just enough forced
lift to keep activity going until near, or a little past
midnight. After that time, diminishing upper support and
instability should result in any residual showers dissipating.
Fairly high dew points this evening (well into the 60s), hit and
miss showers, and the expectation of at least partial clearing
after midnight, should result in areas of fog later on, into the
early morning hours Monday.
No other changes at this time.
115 PM update...
the first convective cell has broken this afternoon over the southeastern
fa, where Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis depicts a small area of 500 j/kg
MLCAPES. Most of the forecast area has 100-250 j/kg of energy, so the odds on
convection will remain Low.
Ridge axis slides eastward into the Great Lakes tonight, bringing
an end to isolated shower activity over NY/PA.
A trough will drift across the Wyoming Valley as it washes out
Monday afternoon, perhaps spurring an isolated shower.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
very quiet weather pattern Monday night into Wednesday. Weak
surface trough passing southeast across the area early Monday
night will be moving away... replaced by surface high pressure.
Meanwhile aloft 500 mb heights build to above 588 dm. Next short
wave then approaches from the west on Wednesday... however this
wave appears to weaken and track south of our area. Result of this
pattern will be mainly dry conditions with above normal
temperatures and just slight chance probability of precipitation for isolated afternoon
showers or thunderstorms.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
long wave ridge remains near the Great Lakes and Central Plains Thursday
into Saturday. This will put our area in light northwest flow aloft which
will leave US vulnerable for the chance of a weak back-door cold
front passage with isolated showers or thunderstorms. However
middle- levels will be quite warm with 500 mb heights over 588 dm and
probability of precipitation will generally be in the 20 percent range by day and 10
percent or less at night. Otherwise just a very stagnant weather
pattern into the weekend with temperatures running well above
normal. Highs will be mainly in the 80s and lows from the middle 50s
to lower 60s. European model (ecmwf) shows some falling heights and possible
thunderstorms on Sunday... however no agreement from the GFS and
bottom line is that no significant systems are expected to affect
our area through next weekend.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
00z Monday update... scattered showers through 03-05z, should
result in brief MVFR restrictions for the southern New York and
northeast PA terminal sites (kelm/kith/kbgm/kavp).
Overnight into early Monday (08-12z)...patchy fog is expected. At
this juncture, we anticipate IFR restrictions at kelm, with MVFR
the most likely scenario at kbgm/kith. Ksyr/krme/kavp should
VFR/unrestricted conditions are foreseen throughout the day
Light surface flow overnight, should become westerly on Monday at
Tuesday through thursday: no significant weather expected.
Generally VFR, with local restrictions possible due to valley fog
each morning, with the most likely location kelm.