Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1014 am EST Sat Feb 6 2016
dry weather is expected through the weekend. A coastal storm
system will miss US completely on Monday, but a weaker storm
sliding down from the Great Lakes will bring a few snows showers
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10 am update...
the current forecast remains in good shape, so just cosmetic
tweaks are required with the sky and temperature grids for the
balance of the daylight hours.
The latest satellite trends show mostly a broken deck of middle-
level clouds crossing central New York/northeast PA late this morning,
with just a few flurries, at worst, being observed across areas
generally north of the New York thruway. We still expect, if anything, a
decrease in cloudiness this afternoon, especially for ny's
southern tier and northeast PA, as a southwest air flow becomes
more firmly established.
Highs later today should range from the middle 30s (higher terrain
areas) to lower 40s (valley/urbanized areas).
Previous discussion... 215 am update...
The trend is to remove les from northern Oneida County sooner than
previously thought. Latest Canadian regional and nam12 weaken the
band and push it well north of our forecast area by 12z.
Expanding high pressure will lead to partly sunny skies today.
Low level temperatures, while cooler than in previous days, are
still mild for early February with 925mb temperatures around -7c.
Maximum temperatures should reach 37f to 41f across most of the forecast area this
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
a very quiet weekend is forecast with an elongated area of high
pressure stretching into the Middle Atlantic States and slowly
A weak Canadian cold front will skirt the US/Canadian border late
Saturday, but the airmass behind the front remains mild for the
first half of February. 925mb temperatures around -3c and fair skies should
support Sunday afternoon temperatures in the middle 40s.
Twin surface cyclones will form within the ul trough on Monday, with
the stronger coastal version missing US completely while the
weaker Continental storm brings light snow to New York/PA late Monday.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
models are in good agreement with the development of the flow
pattern next week. A deep upper level trough will advance toward
our region from the Great Lakes early next week, however the low-
level environment in the wake of the ocean storm will not be
conducive to low-level cyclogenesis. As a result the upper-level
trough is forecast to result in a weak... disorganized area of
surface low pressure over the eastern U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday.
Based on this we are only expecting disorganized areas of light
snow Tuesday and Wednesday with significant snow accumulations
unlikely. Eventually some cold air will move in behind this trough
which could result in more significant lake effect snows southeast
of Lake Ontario during the second half of the week.
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours across all
terminals. For much of the period scattered/broken clouds around 5k feet with
just scattered clouds this evening.
Light winds becoming SW by middle morning at 5-10 knots with gusts
around 15 knots on the hilltops. Winds becoming light this
Sun through Monday morning...VFR.
Monday afternoon through Wednesday...chance of snow and associated restrictions.