Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
413 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a slow moving storm system will finally depart the region
tonight...with showers tapering off this evening. For the next few
days...although much of the time will be rain-free...hit and miss
afternoon showers are anticipated...as upper-level disturbances
will be in the vicinity.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
4 PM Monday update... the vertically stacked low is finally opening
up late this afternoon and moving east-northeastward into new eng. As such...the
heavier rains on the deformation side of the low have subsided in
cny...with just light-MDT leftover showers. A convective line across NE PA
is translating southeastward...and should be clear of the forecast area by 21-23z. For
these reasons...the Flash Flood Watch across portions of cny has been cancelled early.
After any residual showers end early this evening...the rest of the night
should be rain-free...with cloudiness early on giving way to partial
clearing late. The timing of the clearing will be key to how
much...if any valley fog forms prior to daybreak.
Lows should range from the upper 40s-middle 50s most areas.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
410 PM Monday update... the next few days (tue-thu) will be
characterized by cyclonic flow aloft...just ahead of a lingering
upper-level trough axis across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions.
Meanwhile...at the surface...a ridge of high pressure will be slowly building
eastward from the upper lakes region and southwestern ont.
In general...this means dry weather much of the time...but diurnally
driven and widely separated showers/thunderstorms should be around...mostly
Wednesday and Thursday...when the aforementioned trough axis makes its
closest approach to NY/PA.
Although temperatures will be fairly cool for the end of July (highs
mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s)...they should
slowly moderate towards the end of the work week.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
large scale trough will remain fixed over eastern Continental U.S. This period,
with a closed low positioned over Ontario province. The pattern's
amplitude will diminish toward the end of the period.
With this pattern, we expect scattered shower and thunderstorms
activity, mainly during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will
average below normal through Sunday.
Followed HPC guidance with minor temperature adjustments and pop
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
a surface cyclone translating across New York state will spin showers
over the New York terminals through 23z-01z, where after showers will
dissipate. Heavy showers will produce borderline IFR restrictions
(1sm to 3sm vis, 600-1500 feet cigs) mainly through sunset.
Light fog is possible at Elm early Tuesday morning.
Wed-Sat...restrictions possible each afternoon...in isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms.