Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
649 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015
a large high pressure system, will gradually build southward from
eastern Canada, over the next few days. As a result, we can expect
gradual clearing today, from east to west, followed by rain-free
weather, and seasonable temperatures, both Monday and Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
330 am update... any residual light showers/patchy drizzle across
our western and southern zones early this morning, should diminish
with time, as surface ridging begins to nose southward from
Ontario and Quebec. In fact, we expect the stubborn cloud cover to
also erode by this afternoon, generally from east to west.
Due to a bit more sunshine, plus air mass modification, highs
today will not be quite as chilly as recent days, with maximum
readings ranging from the middle 50s-lower 60s this afternoon.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
345 am update... a large surface high pressure system will
continue to be our dominant player this period, as it builds down
from eastern Canada. Thus, we can expect rain-free weather, with a
good deal of sunshine by day, and clear-partly cloudy skies at
An initially chilly air mass, will slowly modify over time, with
daily highs climbing through the 60s Monday and Tuesday.
Tonight should be the coldest night, and in fact at least patchy
frost is possible over our far eastern zones (otsego and Delaware
counties), where skies are likely to clear out first.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
230 am update...
models similar. Few changes and used the latest hpcguide to
populate. Previous discussion still holds. Dry until Friday then a
front. Could be lingering showers into the weekend. Poor agreement
with GFS keeping it dry with rising heights and Euro keeping a
trough with cold and wet.
400 PM update...
high pressure dominates the extended period with dry weather and
warmer air. A weak front will bring US some extra clouds Wednesday
but for now I continued with a dry forecast with precipitation chances
under 20%. Next real shot at precipitation would come Friday into
Saturday with the passage of a front. The 12z Euro and GFS are in
good agreement on this.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
7 am update...
Mainly VFR conditions as drier air comes in at the lowest levels
and also at high levels. Avp has ceilings around 3k feet which may
bounce into MVFR at times until 14z. Ceilings should rise during
the day and probably clear tonight starting from the NE at rme 21z
then syr 23z and rest of sites by 03z.
With the clearing skies and surface winds under 5 kts and boundary
level winds at 12 kts kelm will probably drop to IFR late tonight.
East winds 4 to 8 kts today then 5 kts or less tonight.
Monday to Thursday...VFR. Possibly some IFR valley fog at kelm Monday and