Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
751 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
a potent winter storm system is bringing a wintry mix, ranging
from rain in northeast Pennsylvania, to heavy snow in central New
York this afternoon. Rain and mixed precipitation will change to
snow by midnight tonight. The winter grip will take hold again
Thursday with continued snow showers and temperatures struggling
to get out of the teens.
Near term /through Thursday/...
550 PM...we've cut back on the quantitative precipitation forecast for the 00z-06z time frame given
radar trends and 18z model guidance. We also cut back on snow accums
across the southern tier (int the gradient zone) by a few inches. All
headlines remain as is. Previous below...
515 PM update...minor tweeks to near term grids. Dual pol and surface
data indicate transition zone lies from central Otsego southwestward across
Broome into Bradford County. Boundary is making slow eastward progress but
expect this movement will accelerate this evening as low pressure winds up to
our east. Previous below...
3 PM update...
surface low just east of pit is intensifying as it moves east to New Jersey
this evening then NE up the New England coast tonight. At upper levels
several short waves combining to deepen an upper level trough over
the NE US. Good moisture transport to the NE of the surface low into
our County Warning Area. Deep lift also with coupled ul jet.
Rain snow line has moved little so far this afternoon. Heavy snow from
Steuben to Oneida counties with 4 to 10 inches so far. South of i88
in New York and most of NE PA still rain. Rain amounts in S central New York and
Bradford PA approaching an inch with additional flooding possible.
As the low passes and north winds pick up, cold air will come in
faster pushing the rain snow line quickly south of the County Warning Area this
evening. This cold air will freeze any water left on the roads.
Snow amounts in NE PA and Sullivan County New York will be light
especially around avp. 4 inches near southern tier New York to half inch
Late tonight temperatures will fall into the single digits most of
the County Warning Area. This combined with a 15 to 25 miles per hour wind will push wind
chills to below zero and in places in New York to -20f. Mentioned in the
Winter Storm Warning. When snow pulls out late tonight and if
there is no blowing snow will need to go to a Wind Chill Advisory
Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon winds die a little as temperatures struggle into
On the back side of the low a northwest flow will provide some lake
enhancement for The Finger lakes...northern sus region and western
Mohawk Valley late tonight. This will taper off to scattered lake
effect snow with light snow amounts.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
3 PM update...
Unsettled and cold weather continues with several clippers.
Nothing of note.
High pressure moves in Thursday night briefly before a warm front
brushes the northern counties late Thursday night. Friday a break but still can't
rule out a mixed shower in New York. Friday night and Sat a pair of cold
fronts brings colder air so that Sat afternoon we are back to northwest flow
and snow showers. Followed MOS guidance.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
4 PM update...
still unsettled with a busy flow riddled with shortwaves...yet not
seeing any big systems impacting the area at this time. General
idea is a cool trough over the northeast states at the beginning
of a period...transitioning to a flatter west-northwest-to- zonal flow
towards the middle of next week. Temperatures below climatology
through the period...but at least approaching it by midweek.
Slight to low chances of snow showers most days...though could
have rain mixed in by Wednesday.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
LIFR visibilities expected across New York terminals for the first several hours
tonight as moderate-heavy snowfall moves in from the west. Ksyr will
likely be 1/4sm in snow through 03z tonight before slowly improving
through 14z, then MVFR in les after this time. At krme expect
visibilities to drop to 1/4sm after 01z and remain through 08z as most
intense portion of band remains over the terminal through most of
the night. Once this snow clears expect slow improvement to MVFR
by 14z with les plaguing terminal through end of taf period.
Further south at New York terminals expect just a glancing blow at kith,
kelm and kbgm through the evening hours. Conditions should rapidly
improve by morning to MVFR. Kavp may see brief restrictions to IFR
after 02z, but expect bulk of restrictions to be MVFR or higher.
Winds will remain strong out of the northwest gusting to 25-30kts,
resulting in blsn, through the end of taf valid time.
Thursday night...VFR except occasional restrictions mainly syr-rme from
lake effect snow showers.
Friday to sun...occasional restrictions in mixed precipitation Friday night/Sat
changing to snow due to multiple small clipper systems.
Sun ngt/Mon...MVFR restrictions possible across southern terminals
as low pressure system crosses the mid-Atlantic.
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for nyz055>057.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 am EDT Thursday for nyz009-