Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
109 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015
high pressure will bring continued unseasonably cold dry weather
to the area through tonight. A storm system tracking east from the
Ohio Valley will bring some light snow Sunday and Sunday night.
Near term /through tonight/...
1245 PM EST update...
a 1044 high sits over the northeast today resulting in another
chilly winter day. This high pressure have resulting in the lake
effect snow showers ending early this morning. High pressure will
continue dominate the weather for the remainder of the day
allowing lots of sunshine to prevail over the northeast PA and
central New York.
Temperatures have rebounded quite nicely in the sunshine with the late
Feb sun. Temperatures have increased into the low to middle teens across the
County Warning Area. Expect temperatures to rise a few more degrees by late afternoon.
The next upper level trough will start to swing south into the
northern Great Plains late Sat night and will help reinforce weak
cyclogenesis over the central Great Plains. The energy from this weak
cyclogenesis will ride along a boundary towards northeast PA and
central New York late tonight and help generate overrunning snow across
the region. Chance for snow will increase after 09z Sunday. Expect
flurries at first... then widespread light snow to develop by
late morning across the area. More details about this system will
be discussed in the section below. Complete details about this
system will be stated in the afternoon forecast package.
Temperatures tonight will be very cold again as temperatures across the
County Warning Area are expected to drop quickly after sunset due to strong
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
400 am update...
as mentioned above the arrival of the snow has been moved up just
a tad on Sunday, versus our previous forecast. Overall not much to
change to our snow total map beyond some cosmetic tweaks. Still
looking for a general 2 to 5 inches of fresh snow by midday
Monday. For amounts I used a blend between our previous forecast
and the 0z Euro/GFS, with a bit of wpc guidance also in my blend.
The NAM snowfall amounts seemed a tad too high, especially over
nepa. Most of our area will in The Squeeze play with higher
amounts to our west and east, and a minimum in the middle. One area of
higher snow from Ohio/western PA/New York will extend just into Steuben
County. Farther east higher totals over eastern New York will likely
extend westward into the Catskills up through Oneida County.
Similar to last weekend, a minimum due to some downsloping will be
likely from near or west of the Scranton /Wilkes-Barre area up to
near or just west of Binghamton, west through Elmira and Ithaca.
See our website or facebook/twitter for the latest snowfall map.
Snow ends quickly on Monday with the exception of Oneida County
where snows linger into the afternoon. While below normal, temperatures
won't be as bad as they have been.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
130 PM update...
busy long term period as upper level pattern becomes transitory.
Potent storm for Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night with all
precipitation types likely. Followed wpc guidance. Again on the
cool side of average...but average is above freezing now.
High pressure over the area Tuesday am before the storm moves NE.
Ridging aloft with warm air advection at middle levels. Overrunning precipitation starts as
snow Tuesday afternoon and evening. The GFS is still several hours faster
than the Euro. Tuesday overnight 850mb temperatures go above 0c so
changeover to sleet then freezing rain. Warm air heads to surface
Wednesday changing precipitation to rain everywhere. The storm
track has been consistent the last 2 or 3 days. Moving NE into southeast
Ontario Wednesday am. Cold front GOES through Wednesday PM changing the precipitation
Cold air advection Thursday night and Friday so lake enhanced snow. High pressure builds
into the southeast and middle Atlantic Friday so drying especially NE PA. GFS
and Euro agree on a weak clipper moving east across southeast Canada
Friday night which may brush the New York zones.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions will prevail today through the late night hours as high
pressure dominates the region. High clouds will increase around
03-05z tonight ahead of the next approaching storm system...and
prevent fog from developing at taf locations. The storm system
will generate light snow over NE PA as early as 11z Sunday morning
over kelm. The snow will then spread north and east during the day
and impact all taf sites by 18z. IFR visbys are expected to develop
shortly after the snow starts... then linger through the
remainder of the taf period.
Winds will be light and variable through late tonight... then
transition to southerly flow early Sunday morning. Winds are expected
to remain under 12 knots through the taf period.
Sun night-early Monday...MVFR/IFR in light snow.
Late Monday-early Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Late Tue-Wed...restrictions from -sn to start late Tuesday...then a
wintry mix Tuesday night to rain Wednesday.
Thursday...restrictions possible in light snow.