Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
740 PM EDT Friday Jul 31 2015
there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Monday afternoon and evening with a cold
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
200 PM EDT update...
partly cloudy skies are expected today as weak high pressure
remains over the region. The period is expected to remain dry with
temperatures rising into the low to middle 80s across much of the area.
A weak wave aloft will move over the region tonight bringing the
chance for showers and a possible thunderstorm starting around
10pm. The chance for showers will be possible through sunrise. Temperatures
this evening will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
200 PM EDT update...
minor changes were made to the previous forecast as a broad
cyclonic flow is expected to continue over the northeast through
this weekend. Still looks like scattered showers will be possible
Sat afternoon and evening. Moisture will be present and so will
instability... this combination along with weak waves will
rotating around the base of the trough will create an environment
possible for showers and thunderstorms.
Expect these to diurnally driven... thus the best chance will be
in middle afternoon into the early evening Sat and sun.
A slightly stronger system will impact the region Monday... which
will bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms to
New York and PA.
Temperatures will be near the seasonal average.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
3 PM update...
Minor changes. Followed latest wpc guidance. Cool period but
little precipitation under an upper level trough. Cold front Monday night
but slow moving cold front so possible some diurnal showers and
thunderstorms again Tuesday. Drier Wednesday then Thursday a strong
system passes from Ohio Valley to the middle Atlantic region.
Showers could make it into NE PA and maybe central New York. Models differ
on placement of track with Canadian well north into New York and Euro in
Virginia. GFS in the middle. Friday should be mostly dry as high
pressure drops in from the northwest.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
Very weak upper level system triggering a few sprinkles at this time but no
restrictions to visibility expeceted. Overnight...second weak system sweeps
through and again may cause a few spronkles...with no restrictions.
However...clouds and incrsd mixing shd keep any valley fog from forming. VFR
conds continue into Sat with the westerly flow. Another upper trough swings
by...but surface hipres shd keep conds mainly clear.
Sat night through Sun night...mainly VFR. Possibly brief MVFR in
showers/storms. Also restrictions in morning valley fog at kelm
Monday through Tuesday...increasing chance for showers and storms
along with associated restrictions. Best late day Monday with cold
Wednesday...mainly VFR. Possible afternoon shower causing brief