Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
303 am EDT Sat Sep 20 2014
high pressure off the New England coast will allow a warmer
southerly flow to develop today...as morning clouds give way to
partly sunny skies this afternoon across most of the region. Mild
weather will continue into Sunday...with showers and thunderstorms
becoming likely by Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front
moves through the area. Lingering showers will persist into Monday
across central New York...then a prolonged period of fair weather
is expected for the remainder of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure off the middle Atlantic CST early this morning. Stratus deck
has moved into NE PA and much of central New York. Model profiles suggest
this deck will begin to scatter out by late morning/early afternoon...but
will likely linger well into the afternoon across portions of the western
Catskills and Poconos. 925 temperatures later this afternoon aprch +18c across
western zones...supporting maxes in the u70s to near 80. Further
east where clouds linger...maxes will be cooler...with u60s to l70s
likely. Gusty S to SW winds this afternoon...especially Finger Lakes region
where g25-30 look likely. Mild south-southwest flow continues tonight with mins
only dropping back into the u50s or l60s.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
precipitation asscd with lead shortwave may work into far western zones on Sunday
morning...but better chances for precipitation will be in the afternoon/evening hours with
aprch of main vorticity lobe and asscd cold front. Models show varying amts of
instabilty and agree on fairly imprsv dynamics and MDT wind
fields. Storm Prediction Center has region in a "see text" which looks good at this
point. Maxes should get back into the m70s on Sunday most areas.
Fnt will sweep through the region by sun evening with some "wrap-
arnd" moisture...enhanced by lake influences...over the region late Sun
night into Monday morning. Drier air works in Monday afternoon with improving
conditions expeceted. Maxes fall back into the u50s across central New York to
l/m60s NE PA.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
extended period begins with a weak surface trough passing through late
Monday night into Tuesday. Boundary is moisture starved so will only
carry slight chance probability of precipitation in the far northern County Warning Area. Rest of extended looks
like a great period of early Fall weather with a strong upper
level ridge across the eastern US. Surface high pressure will build south
over the region middle week then move off the New England coast late
week. Temperatures will modify through the period with temperatures running
above seasonal levels by weeks end.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
marine layer is moving into central New York as of 06z. Most terminals
expected to experience MVFR ceilings through 17z. MVFR ceilings will be
delayed getting into syr and rme until around 08z. These ceilings will
also be quicker to rise to VFR whereas further south potential
exists for restrictions to dip to IFR at bgm and possibly avp
between 09z and 13z in -dz. Southern terminals will become VFR
around 17z Saturday and continue through end of taf valid time.
Light/vrb winds increase out of the south to around 10kts by
daybreak at most locations. South-southwest winds become gusty after 15z to
20-22kts. Winds diminish to around 10kts at sunset but remain out
of the south.
Sat night...widespread MVFR ceilings in moist S/southeast flow.
Sun and Monday...possible restrictions in showers...especially sun.
Tuesday...VFR will likely return.