Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
730 PM EDT Sat may 23 2015
while cool tonight it won't be nearly as chilly as last night.
Warmer air will arrive Sunday with highs in the 70s under
sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Memorial Day,
especially across central New York. We will remain unsettled and
warm through the end of the week, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day.
Near term /through Sunday/...
7 PM update...
Temperatures slow to fall with low levels mixed and sunny. Tonight
winds will become light or calm. Skies will remain mainly clear.
Few changes with no weather.
230 PM update...
A nice afternoon across our area will translate into a beautiful
evening. While not nearly as chilly as last night, with such a dry
airmass in place if you have any plans this evening grab that
jacket. Ideal radiational cooling (dry atmosphere, light wind)
will allow temperatures to fall fast this evening. Mentioned some patchy
frost in some of the cooler spots of the central southern tier,
Catskills, northern Oneida County. Even here though it is not
expected to be widespread enough for an advisory. For the most
part the sky will remain clear overnight. Some clouds 10kft or
higher across central Ontario will move across northern New York. These
clouds may just skim central New York from time to time.
High pressure now over the middle Atlantic will slide off the East
Coast Sunday. The return flow around the high will shift our west
more from the northwest to west or even southwest. This will help
push temperatures into the 70s across much of the area. All and all a
great Sunday across our area!
Short term /Sunday night through Monday/...
230 PM update...
The models have been waffling a bit in terms of whether or not we
see rain late Sunday night into Memorial Day. Up until last night,
model guidance had been pretty consistent in showing a warm front
with showers/storms especially over central New York. After the 0z runs
last night were farther north with the front and therefore drier,
we have now returned to a wetter scenario with the 12z models.
Still the highest threat for showers will mainly be over central
New York. Farther south near the New York/PA line, shower threat seems to be
confined to the first part of the day with nepa remaining dry.
Temperatures Memorial Day will be in the 80s.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
period begins with a large ridge over the southeastern US extending up into new eng
and rising heights under a SW flow for the forecast area. As we go through
the week...there will be S slow retreat of the upper ridge into the
western Atlantic while the middle west trough slowly weakens as it slowly
So...for the day to day forecast in the area...the SW flow will bring
warm and more himid air into the region. Also...with daytime heating
and instability combined with the slowly advancing trough...there
will be an incrsg chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Best
chance will be Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday with maximum heating and the
trough nearly upon US.
Daily temperatures will be above normal for the area through the period.
Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/...
715 PM update...
VFR through the end of the taf period. High clouds possible
Sunday in New York.
Winds dropping to under 10 kts now and will be 5 kts or less from
the usual drainage direction. Sunday winds increase to 8 to 12 kts
from the west. Probably some gusts at syr.
Tue-thur...restrictions possible in scattered rain showers/daytime thunderstorms and rain.