Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
134 am EDT Wednesday Sep 3 2014
a cold front will exit the region overnight...ending the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Dry warm weather will follow behind the
front for Wednesday through Friday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
950 PM update...
last of Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now expiring. Storms have
weakened into a band of showers now over the Catskills to extreme
northeast PA...which will exit in the next couple hours.
at 745 PM...severe weather event in progress. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect until 10 PM for most of our central to
southeast zones. Several warnings in effect...and with the amount
of shear /0-6km 40-50 kts/ present...damaging winds has been the
main problem. We have had several reports of trees and power lines
down. Despite the wind...and heavy rainfall with precipitable
water pooling to near 2 inches...not a lot of lightning in this
activity because of very warm lower atmosphere...and convective available potential energy limited
generally to 500-1000 j/kg.
Activity will finish carrying through the next couple hours.
Later tonight high pressure already moving east across PA while
drier and cooler air moves in from the northwest at low levels. With the
light ll winds and the wet ground fog should be common in at least
Short term /6 am this morning through Friday/...
3 PM update...
high pressure at the surface will build into the area by evening
and remain through Thursday. Aloft the flow will be zonal. Cooler
air on Thursday will quickly moderate on the back side of the
high. Upper level heights will rise while low levels increase out
of the southwest. Above normal temperatures Thursday around 80 rise into the
m80s Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front gets into southeast Ontario late
Friday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Friday will be warm and humid as a west-southwest flow over the top of the ridge
brings warm air and moisture into the region. Another strong cold
fnt aprchs for Sat bringing a good chance for showers and trws.
Hipres builds back in with cooler and drier air through the end of the
period. Some hint from the models that the fnt could stall out over
the middle Atlantic but it looks for now like the fnt will stay well
south of the forecast area. Temperatures look to be above normal for the
period...xcpt for Monday when they will be near normal.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
06z Wednesday update... widespread restrictive conds will be across cny/NE
PA through 13-15z. IFR conds are most probable at
kith/kbgm/kelm...with dense fog at kelm...and lower ceilings at
kith/kbgm. Frequent MVFR ceilings can be anticipated at krme/ksyr/kavp.
As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday...VFR should return area-
wide...with these conds then lasting through 06z Thursday.
West to northwest winds of 5-8 knots today...will become vrb at or below 5 knots after 00z
Thu-Fri...VFR...except possible early morning fog...mainly kelm.
Sat...restrictions possible in shra/tsra.