Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
431 am EST sun Jan 25 2015
colder air will once again overspread the region today...along
with scattered snow showers and flurries mainly in central New
York this morning. Another system will move in Monday morning...spreading
light snow into the area. However...that system will strengthen into
a large nor Easter Monday night through Tuesday...which may result
in heavy snow for parts of the area...especially in the Poconos to
Catskills. A wintry weather pattern will persist through the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
340 am update...
Arctic front is just slipping south of Lake Ontario and will drop
through the area this morning. Most of the area...especially twin
tiers northward...are at daily maximum...as temperatures will
generally fall through the day. Moisture with the front is quite
shallow...with a frontal band of snow showers becoming scattered
as it shifts south...to the point that only a few flurries will
reach the New York-PA border...and much of nepa not even a flake.
With the northwesterly flow behind the front...stratocumulus will
be slow to erode despite it being on the shallow side. As wind
veers more northerly late afternoon and dry air continues to
advect in...should see a quicker breakup of clouds.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
415 am update...
entire focus will be a major storm system expected to develop
during the period.
Initial system will be a fast moving clipper Sunday night into
Monday. Widespread light snow will overspread the area Monday, as
this low Transfer its energy to the coast. An inverted trough from
the clipper system, will help spread the snow northward. A general
light snow or 1" to 3" is expected. It should be emphasized this
snow is not related to the high impact storm moving up the coast,
but will still make for some slippery spots Monday.
During the day Monday the system mentioned above will Transfer
energy to the coast and form a new stronger coastal storm, off the
Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. At the upper levels our 500 mb trough GOES negative tilted
and cuts off over the Eastern Shore of Maryland by Monday evening. The
surface low will crawl northeast over the next 24 hours and will
be south of Cape Cod by Tuesday afternoon. For the most part this
track is just a tad too far east for a widespread impact on our
area but still close enough to impact areas especially east of I-81.
Due to the slow movement and intensity, this storm will have
plenty of time to wrap precipitation back into our eastern
forecast area, on a moist northeasterly flow. This is why our
confidence that at least part of our area will get in on the
After a conference call with surrounding weather forecast offices and wpc, the
0z Euro model is preferred and we have issued a Winter Storm Watch
for Pike County, PA and Sullivan County, New York. Based on climatology
and model trends, these by far are the most likely areas to see
warning criteria met (7"+). Parts of eastern Delaware County are
also likely to see amounts exceeding warning criteria, due to the
upslope flow into the Catskills. Elected to leave them out of the
watch for now given we are talking about the extreme eastern part
of the County and can certainly expand as necessary later today.
The other area to watch, which was highlighted in the hwo, will
be the hills south of Syracuse and Utica. Similar to our event in
November (more for placement vs. Actual amounts), our moist
northeast flow may enhance snow totals here. On the flip side
downsloping will likely limit amounts in greater Syracuse/Utica.
Check our our website weather.Gov/bgm and follow US on social
media (facebook.Com/nwsbinghamton and twitter.Com/nwsbinghamton)
for our first estimate at snowfall amounts.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
345 am update...
forecast adjusted for latest wpc guidance and model trends. Not
much change overall...including a potential batch of light snow
late Thursday-early Friday. It appears that the resurgence of
colder air will arrive by Friday instead of waiting until
Saturday. Thus the near normal temperatures will only last a day.
closely followed wpc guidance. A couple of waves are expected to
move through the region through the extended forecast.
Wednesday high pressure will build back into the region but will be
quickly pushed to the east as another clipper approaches New York and
PA. This clipper will impact the County Warning Area creating snow showers which
are expected to start late Thursday afternoon/evening. Snow showers
will be possible through Friday afternoon. Another ridge will
build back behind this system resulting in dry weather for Sat.
Temperatures Wednesday will be well below the seasonal norm with minimum temperatures
falling to near or below zero. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Thursday
and Friday reaching near normal temperatures... then fall back below on Sat.
Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/...
cold front now in progress of dropping north to south during
remainder of nighttime hours into early morning. Associated
moisture layer if fairly shallow...thus not expecting much in the
way of visible restrictions with frontal snow showers...but ceilings will
generally be at fuel alt request MVFR level /except kelm-kavp which
will be higher end MVFR/...even IFR ceiling for a period at krme.
Drier air behind the front late morning into afternoon should lift
ceilings into higher end MVFR...or even scattered them out. As winds veer
more northerly...becoming VFR areawide late afternoon through
evening. See tafs for specifics.
Mon-Tue...system to move over mainly central-southern terminals
with -sn and restrictions Monday...then will slowly evolve into
nor Easter for especially eastern parts of the area Tuesday. Uncertainty
for which terminals may be impacted.
Tuesday ngt-Wed...lingering lake effect -shsn and MVFR ceilings possible
mainly New York terminals into Wednesday morning...otherwise mainly VFR.
Thursday...restrictions from -sn as system passes sometime Thursday-Thursday night.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for paz048.
New York...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for nyz062.