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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1214 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 242 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Upper level trough continues to progress east across the western
Great Lakes early this morning with expansive stratus/stratocumulus
in place across most of the forecast area. Surface high pressure is
edging east out of the northern plains and will help to bring
drier air in later today to help clear out the low clouds.
However...looking upstream we continue to see low clouds
streaming southward from northern/central this will
create some issues with the cloud forecast today. Also...a
shortwave will move through late this morning into the middle
afternoon hours producing a broken to overcast middle level cloud deck.
Mesoscale model simulated radar reflectivity produces some light
returns. After looking at forecast soundings the atmosphere is
pretty dry below 10kft...except for the thin broken to overcast stratus
around 1500 feet. So...with the low exiting to the east and the high
building in from the will be a breezy day with
persistent northwest winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts to 25 miles per hour at
times. The low stratus should gradually clear today from west to
east...but will be stubborn to do so along and east of the
Mississippi River. In fact...these areas my not clear until early
this evening...especially central Wisconsin. Have lowered high
temperatures slightly along and east of the Mississippi River due
to the low clouds today. Plan on highs ranging from the upper 40s
over northern Wisconsin to the upper 50s to around 60 across
northeast Iowa.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 242 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Mostly sunny...dry...and breezy conditions are expected across the
region on Wednesday as high pressure slides to the south of the
forecast area. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the
region again producing breezy conditions. Also..deep mixing will
lead to some fire weather concerns west of the Mississippi River
where afternoon minimum relative humidity values look to fall
into the 27 to 30 percent range. West/northwest will increase to
10 to 14 miles per hour with gusts approaching 20 miles per hour at times. A trough and
cold front push across the region on Wednesday look to bring a
good chance of showers to the forecast area. In the wake of the
front...much cooler air will move in. Highs will struggle to get
out of the 40s both Friday and Saturday. A hard freeze is looking
likely Friday night into Saturday morning for much of the area.
The coldest temperatures will be across central into northern
Wisconsin where lows are expected to fall into the lower 20s.
Elsewhere ... will fall into the upper 20s. We could see
temperatures get even colder across western sections of the
forecast area with a large 1034 mb high edging in.

Breezy southerly winds develop late Sunday through Monday. Monday
looks to be a rather windy day ahead of a cold front approaching from
the northern plains . The GFS is generating some precipitation
across the region on Monday while the European model (ecmwf) is dry. Will have to
keep a close eye on this as we get closer


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1214 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Visible satellite imagery/ground observation sites showing back
edge of MVFR stratocumulus over eastern Minnesota...eroding west to east as
high pressure works in from the northern plains. Krst will see
scattered stratocumulus at onset of 18z taf with klse expected to
scatter out by 21z. High pressure working into the region tonight
through Wednesday morning will produce clear/VFR conditions.


Arx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...wetenkamp
long term...wetenkamp

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