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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
638 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015

Near term...(today through tonight)
issued at 335 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015

Synoptic pattern and observations:

Early this morning...earlier shallow cold front with the enhanced
snows moved inland and weakened...but did reach most all of NE lower
with at least some snow. Strong subsidence and drying has set in
behind this front and have cleared out the skies with the exception
of some more middle level clouds upstream...but even those clouds were
rapidly diminishing. We remain in a somewhat tight gradient between
the departing front and surface high pressure which has settled into The
Heart of the Country. West winds were gusting around 20mph in
spots...especially along the Lakeshore of northwest lower and Whitefish
Bay/Mackinac Island. Meanwhile...attention turns to energy being
ejected out of a sharp upper longwave trough across the western
Continental U.S..

Synoptic pattern evolution and associated weather:

Gusty winds to 20-25 miles per hour expected this morning...but will be
diminishing through the latter part of the day as the aforementioned
high pressure pushes rather rapidly east. This high pressure will be
over US this evening...before exiting east overnight. This will make
way for developing low pressure in the Lee of The Rockies. By late
tonight...northern Michigan starts to enter the warm air advection stage ahead of this
low pressure. The warm front from the low pressure is still well SW
of the center of the country. Something happens at this
point...something we haven't talked about in a long while...there
will be a good tap of Gulf of Mexico moisture working into the

Some few-scattered flat cumulus is all that is expected today which
dissipates by this evening. Winds will turn calm this evening and
with clear skies...there will be a quick drop in temperatures. These
temperatures will level out through the overnight...or will increase
a higher level clouds pour in by daybreak. An outside
chance of some elevated warm front snows across the region...but the
main show holds off for Tuesday.

Highs today will be in the lower to middle 20s. Lows tonight much
less cold...8f to 18f. Lows tonight in the single digits above and
below zero.


Short term...(tuesday through Wednesday night)
issued at 335 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015

..accumulating snow Tuesday likely leading to slow travel...

The well advertised system riding along the northward pushing
baroclinic zone buoyed by an impressive 160 knot 250 mb jet is still
set for Tuesday. There continues to be strong isentropic ascent
associated with this system as well as a bit of a Gulf tap (0.60
precipitable waters) which are all expected to combine and result in
a quick burst of snow...on the order of 3 to 5 inches. A majority of
the snow is expected to fall from middle morning through early
afternoon Tuesday. In addition...the snow will have a little
substance to it (versus the light and fluffy variety we most often
experience) so it will likely be somewhat difficult to drive on. An
Arctic front will then follow and move through the area early
Wednesday resulting in another round of very chilly temperatures
(but unlike previous Arctic air should be rather
short lived and be gone by Friday afternoon). As far as weather
concerns go...there could be a few snow showers or flurries
Wednesday as energy drops down through the flow (especially in the
afternoon). Upper level troughing holds through Wednesday night
yielding light northwest flow lake effect snow shower chances. High
pressure centered off to our south should then diminish any lake
effect on Thursday. Highs in the middle and upper 20s Tuesday then
the upper single digits to the teens Wednesday with temperatures
likely slowly falling through the day due to strong cold advection.
Highs Thursday in the lower and middle teens. Lows in the upper
single digits and teens Tuesday night and the single digits below
zero for the most part for both Wednesday and Thursday nights
(perhaps even a few negative teens below Wednesday night). In
addition...there could end up being low wind chills (on the order of
10 to 20 below) due to brisk winds from Wednesday night through
Friday morning).


Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 335 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015

..bring on the warmup...

A fairly progressive flow pattern aloft will lead to moderating
temperatures Friday followed by milder readings for Saturday and
Sunday. There will only be small chances for snow showers through
the period as the milder air rides northward over the cold dome of
air in place. Highs in the middle to upper 20s Friday then the upper
20s to middle 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Lows mainly in the teens.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 636 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015

Air temperatures and instability has in fact been able to fire off
some lake effect clouds and flurries...but overall strong drying
and subsidence is expected to result in a dissipation of these
clouds by middle morning or so. The remainder of the day...some few-
scattered flat cumulus will develop underneath a strong inversion. This will
dissipate by evening...and a period of sky clear-sct250 for the
evening. More robust moisture clouds thicken overnight...with the
possibility of some light snows around sunrise Tuesday.


Apx watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...smd
short term...Sullivan
long term...Sullivan

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