Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
714 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015

Near term...(this evening through tonight)
issued at 325 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015 more freeze...

Synoptic pattern and observations:

This afternoon...a large closed low was spinning over Quebec while
ridging was pushing through the Dakotas. In between...stood northern
Michigan...with strong subsidence and surface high pressure gradually
moving toward US. The surface cold front that moved through yesterday
was well south...and a rush of crisp Canadian air was settled in
across the region. Still some gustiness out there but winds have
been dropping off to the west...closer to the higher
pressure/weaker gradient. Temperatures mainly in the 50s.

Synoptic pattern evolution and associated weather:

Rather uneventful. Upper closed low slides east overnight while the
ridging pushes into the Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure drifts
directly overhead this evening with winds going cal. Clear skies and
a dry atmosphere will result in a rapid drop in temperatures. Could
see many areas...if not the 30s by late evening/midnight.
Still more time to cool off into the overnight...with most areas in
a freeze...but a return west-southwest/SW wind does increase late in the night
to stall out the temperature fall. This will especially be true for
Leelanau/Benzie and Manistee counties. Believe temperatures will
reach low to middle 30s there for the need of a frost advisory. Inland
areas may very well see a harder freeze situation. All other
counties will be more engulfed in a freezing scenario...with
readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The lowest lying areas will
be in the middle 20s. Will thus shoot out what will be the final
freeze warning for a long while. One more night of protecting fruit
crops and other sensitive vegetation.


Short term...(saturday through monday)
issued at 325 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015

..warming up this weekend with increasing chances for showers...

Pattern shift still on track for this weekend right into much of
next week as the stubborn upper level trough lifts out to the
north due to a building ridge in the southeastern states. This is
expected to lead to a warmer and more moist southwesterly flow
across the western Great Lakes. The main short term forecast
concerns revolve around probability of precipitation Sunday into Memorial Day.

High pressure will continue to depart to our southeast Saturday
resulting in a somewhat breezy and much milder south southwesterly
flow. Skies will remain mainly clear (perhaps a few high clouds in
the afternoon). Overall a glorious start to the Memorial Day
weekend. Unfortunately...this is not expected to last as at least
a little of the copious amounts of moisture from the Southern
Plains streams northeastward (pw/S ramp up to between 1 and 1.5
inches Sunday and upwards of 1.75 inches monday). The combination
of the increased moisture and a surface warm front will lead to
chances for rain showers Sunday with better chances Sunday night
into Monday as low pressure moves into Wisconsin. In
addition...there will be chances for a couple of thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday but overall instability during this time
looks rather low.

Good mixing Saturday expected to yield highs in the lower and middle
70s. Highs Sunday a bit tricky due to a decent amount of cloud cover
and an increasing shower threat possibly holding down temperatures a
bit...went with highs ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Highs Monday ranging from the lower and middle 70s across northern
lower and the lower and middle 60s across eastern upper (likely
north of the stalled out surface warm front). Lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s Saturday night and the lower to upper 50s Sunday


Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 325 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015

At the start of the period...weak upper level ridging quickly shifts
off to the east Monday night with a more zonal/broad southwest flow
regime look arriving Tuesday. Much of the forecast period is fairly
low confidence in terms of precipitation chances...with perhaps
diurnally driven scattered showers or thunderstorms possible from
Tuesday through Friday. At this point...pinpointing exact timing
and/or placement of any precipitation would be rather will
continue with chance-type probability of precipitation throughout much of the period
knowing that there will likely be plenty of dry time mixed in as

By the look of it...temperatures should continue to be near or
slightly above normal levels for much of the extended...with the
warmest day looking like Tuesday as highs rise into the middle-upper


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 713 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015


High pressure is sitting over lower Michigan...resulting in a very dry
airmass. Clear skies tonight...with some cirrus pushing into northwest
lower Michigan from the SW on Saturday.

Winds becoming light this evening. SW winds developing Saturday
morning...gusting to near 20kt by midday.


issued at 325 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015

No marine headlines anticipated at this time although winds will
at least approach small craft Saturday. Surface high pressure and
light winds drift overhead this evening...and east late tonight
into Saturday. The pressure gradient does tighten up Saturday into
Saturday night...but low level stability will increase
substantially. Thus...winds aloft easily leading to advisories
should not translate to the water surface. Maybe some low end
advisory gusts funneling through The Straits in west-southwest flow...but not
anticipated at this time. We then transition into a warmer and wetter
scenario with periods of unsettled weather...mainly rain...and the
possibility for hearing a rumble of thunder.


Apx watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...freeze warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 am EDT Saturday for

Frost advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 am EDT Saturday for



Near term...smd
short term...Sullivan
long term...gillen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations