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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
233 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Near term...(today through tonight)
issued at 230 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Pronounced surface ridging has shifted west of
extending from western Ontario through the Mississippi Valley. Modest short
wave and surface response in the form of an inverted trough has
nosed its way into Michigan. Northern edge of deep moisture and lift from
the persistent middle Atlantic low has finally reached our County Warning Area...
producing mainly light rain shower activity across far eastern Upper
Michigan as well as north central and NE lower Michigan. Tight east/west
moisture gradient in place across our County Warning Area has kept much of our far
western County Warning Area mainly dry through the night...and this should remain the case
as we head into the day. Short wave will gradually lift NE through our
County Warning Area and into Ontario. Diminishing lift and increasingly shallow
moisture will result in a slow decrease in areal coverage and thus
probability of precipitation from west to east today...but best chance of rain will hold
over NE lower Michigan where deeper moisture will hold on longest.
Still...any precipitation that does fall will be light. Expect another
cloudy and cool day for the Northwoods...with afternoon highs mainly
in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will remain from the east/NE but will
diminish to around 10 miles per hour.

Another weak wave will surge northward into the southern half of our County Warning Area
tonight...renewing our chances of light rain showers...mainly for
locations along and south of M-72. Moisture will remain rather
shallow...which should limit rainfall intensity to light. Under
cloudy skies and light east/NE winds...low temperatures will cool back into
the middle to upper 40s.


Short term...(monday through Tuesday night)
issued at 230 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

High impact weather potential: nothing.

Pattern synopsis/anticipated evolution: current rather unusual
blocking pattern about set to transition to one much more familiar
for this time of year...with quasi-zonal northern stream flow once
again becoming dominate this week across southern Canada and the
northern Continental U.S.. main upper level jet cores look to remain north of
the lakes...suggesting only brief intrusions of any chilly air and a
fairly mild stretch of October weather. Not a particularly active
stretch of weather...although still looking like late week system
will bring a bout of wet weather along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: cloud/light rain issues
Monday. Addressing better rain potential to end the work week.

Details: will still be dealing with overhead pesky Atlantic moisture
plume (albeit thinning) on Monday. While forcing to work over this
moisture is essentially non-existent...guidance continues to show a
rather deep saturated layer below 800 mb. This looks just deep enough to
continue the threat for a few sprinkles over parts of northern lower
Michigan...especially during the morning. Despite top-down moisture
evacuation through the day...sub inversion level remains saturated
across northern lower...suggesting cloudy skies will dominate. A
different story north of the big bridge...with a much drier profile
supporting at least partial sunshine. Earlier mentioned pattern
change really kicks into high gear by late Monday...continuing top-
down drying into Monday night. Unfortunately...sub inversion level
moisture looking to hold strong...with simply not enough low level
flow to get rid of it. Moisture looks too thin to support any
further drizzle/spinkles... but expect another mostly cloudy/patchy
fog night...with even the potential for some stratus and fog to
develop across eastern upper through the early morning. Fast moving
weak wave and attendant surface trough slice across the region
Tuesday...with perhaps just enough forcing/moisture to bring the
threat for an isolated shower or two across eastern upper. A dry and
seasonably mild day elsewhere.


Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 230 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

A dry and mild Wednesday gives way to increasing rain chances
heading through Thursday and Thursday night as a well defined wave
interacts with a decent surge of subtropical moisture. System will
be a steady mover...with just some lingering light showers
possible Friday...with mostly dry weather by Saturday. A rather
unusual fall system in that no substantial cooling follows
it...with temperatures remain at or slightly above normal levels
right through Saturday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 100 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Scattered showers will continue to impact much of northern lower Michigan through
Sunday...but will diminish in areal coverage as the shortwave
currently just to our west lifts NE away from our state. Best
chance for precipitation will remain over central and eastern lower
Michigan (apn). Precipitation chances for our taf sites near Lake
Michigan (pln/tvc/mbl) will be too small to include in the taf for
now. Ceilings will gradually lower early this morning to MVFR/possibly
IFR...and will remain low throughout the day. Gusty east/NE winds
will diminish to at or below 10 kts by sunrise.


issued at 230 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Winds and waves will remain just at Small Craft Advisory criteria over Lake Huron
through much of today as persistent onshore easterly flow continues to
pile up waves along the nearshore areas. The rest of our nearshore
areas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Monday. Scattered
showers will also impact Our Lake Huron nearshore areas through
tonight...with scattered showers impacting portions of Our Lake
Michigan nearshore areas tonight as another weak wave surges into
our area.


Apx watches/warnings/advisories...
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for

Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT early this morning for



Near term...mlr
short term...msb
long term...msb

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