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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
649 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

issued at 212 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the
remainder of the week and on into the weekend...bringing with it dry
weather along with gradually warming temperatures.


Short term...(today through tonight)
issued at 212 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

..beautiful weather...

Impacts: none.

Current weather and synoptic pattern:

Surface high pressure and ridging/subsidence increasing aloft early this
morning. Latest satellite imagery and surface observation showing clear skies
with the only clouds around...lower stratus in Ontario...flirting
with the sault. There was also some high level cirrus well
The Heart of the country...associated with eastward drifting upper
level low pressure. Surface winds were weakening...especially in the low
lying protected areas...temperatures in these areas were dropping
into the middle to upper 40s. Elsewhere...the more exposed locales
were still feeling temperatures in the middle and upper 50s.

Synoptic pattern/weather evolution:

Surface high pressure continues to become more established over the
region today...but also shifts east...with further weakening of the
pressure gradient. The biggest forecast question...and it really has
no impact...will be the cloud forecast today. Although we have
relative higher moisture still drifting around and especially across will be drying with time under the subsidence and warm
advection from a developing light southerly flow. No real convinced
of any decent cumulus this afternoon...not only from a forecast sounding
standpoint...but also by the incoming air mass having little to no
cumulus in it yesterday. Could see some minimal cumulus trying to collect
in lake breeze convergence areas...but the longer we mix today...the
more dry air we encounter...and skies will likely go back to sunny
just before Sundown.

Mixing ought to get surface dew points down into the upper 40s...which will be
a good benchmark for overnight lows...but lowest lying areas will
fall into the lower to middle 40s where patchy fog will be

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 212 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

..about as good as you can expect to start the fall season...

High impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis/anticipated evolution: one of the most significant
pattern changes seen around these parts in quite a while...with deep
layer ridging building overhead...and expected to stay here for the
next several days. A stable...quiet...and mild pattern for sure to
to begin the fall season.

Primary forecast challenges/concerns: not a lot. Mainly temperature

Details: high pressure both at the surface and aloft simply maintain
control of our weather right through the upcoming weekend (at
least). Current intermountain west wave pushes east...dampening as
it does so...and likely bringing no more than perhaps some
increasing high clouds middle/late week. Otherwise...ingredients all
there for a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures...with
plenty of sunshine and persistent light southerly flow resulting in
highs mostly in the Lower/Middle 70s. Perhaps some changes begin
heading into the early stages of next week...although have to admit
uncertainty is high...especially given such a slow moving pattern.
Will refrain from adding any rain chances just yet...with plenty of
time to revisit this period in the coming days.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 647 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Only a brief period of IFR due to ground fog/stratus until quickly
burning off with sunrise. Then...solid VFR conditions at all northern
lower Michigan taf sites. Maybe some more brief periods of ground
fog/stratus late tonight. West/SW winds under 10 kts overnight will
lend to lake breeze development today. Surface high pressure is


issued at 212 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Surface high pressure and drier air will be a common theme across the
nearshore waters for the next several also will be an
overall light southerly wind. Afternoon winds will also trend
onshore. No marine issues right on through the weekend.


Apx watches/warnings/advisories...



short term...smd
long term...msb

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