Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
1234 PM EST Monday Mar 2 2015
Near term...(today through tonight)
issued at 1128 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
13z surface/composite analysis shows 1035mb high centered over the
middle Mississippi Valley...with a decent pressure gradient across the
Great Lakes. A cold front extends from northern Quebec back to the
North Shore of Lake Superior. Synoptic scale subsidence/drying
occurring across Michigan this morning (precipitable water at or
below 0.10 inch on 12z apx/grb soundings) in the wake of a short
wave trough moving through the northeast U.S. And within the left
entrance region of a 160kt jet streak over Ohio/Pennsylvania.
Northwest flow lake bands into parts of the forecast area...some
weakening radar returns across northern lower (12z apx sounding
inversion around 800mb/-21c).
Surface high will continue to build east this afternoon into southern
lower/Indiana/Ohio. So a pretty quiet afternoon overall...one long
band of snow extending from just off the Keweenaw peninsula across
northern Chippewa County and into Northern Lake Huron just off
Presque Isle County is the only issue for the next several hours.
Afternoon highs in the 20s expected (normals 30-35).
Short term...(tuesday through Wednesday night)
issued at 335 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
..accumulating snow Tuesday likely leading to slow travel...
The well advertised system riding along the northward pushing
baroclinic zone buoyed by an impressive 160 knot 250 mb jet is still
set for Tuesday. There continues to be strong isentropic ascent
associated with this system as well as a bit of a Gulf tap (0.60
precipitable waters) which are all expected to combine and result in
a quick burst of snow...on the order of 3 to 5 inches. A majority of
the snow is expected to fall from middle morning through early
afternoon Tuesday. In addition...the snow will have a little
substance to it (versus the light and fluffy variety we most often
experience) so it will likely be somewhat difficult to drive on. An
Arctic front will then follow and move through the area early
Wednesday resulting in another round of very chilly temperatures
(but unlike previous Arctic air intrusions...it should be rather
short lived and be gone by Friday afternoon). As far as weather
concerns go...there could be a few snow showers or flurries
Wednesday as energy drops down through the flow (especially in the
afternoon). Upper level troughing holds through Wednesday night
yielding light northwest flow lake effect snow shower chances. High
pressure centered off to our south should then diminish any lake
effect on Thursday. Highs in the middle and upper 20s Tuesday then
the upper single digits to the teens Wednesday with temperatures
likely slowly falling through the day due to strong cold advection.
Highs Thursday in the lower and middle teens. Lows in the upper
single digits and teens Tuesday night and the single digits below
zero for the most part for both Wednesday and Thursday nights
(perhaps even a few negative teens below Wednesday night). In
addition...there could end up being low wind chills (on the order of
10 to 20 below) due to brisk winds from Wednesday night through
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 335 am EST Monday Mar 2 2015
..bring on the warmup...
A fairly progressive flow pattern aloft will lead to moderating
temperatures Friday followed by milder readings for Saturday and
Sunday. There will only be small chances for snow showers through
the period as the milder air rides northward over the cold dome of
air in place. Highs in the middle to upper 20s Friday then the upper
20s to middle 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Lows mainly in the teens.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1233 PM EST Monday Mar 2 2015
VFR conditions expected this afternoon through this evening...with
clouds thickening and lowering overnight. Snow expected to develop
around daybreak Tuesday and continue through the afternoon...with
IFR conditions expected Tuesday morning.