Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1138 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014
winds should remain at 10 knots or less through this forecast and
they will veer from the northeast to east to south. Skies should
remain VFR. However...there is an outside shot at some low clouds or
fog at the Ama taf site early Tuesday morning. Have not inserted this
possibility in the taf just yet as confidence remains low.
Previous discussion... /issued 658 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
generally VFR conditions and relatively light and variable winds can
be expected over the next 24 hours. Brief light fog with MVFR
visibilities could develop through 14z and again Tuesday morning...
especially at kama and kdht...but not confident to include at this
Discussion... /issued 409 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/
For today...inserted patchy fog across southwestern and scntrl Texas Panhandle until
middle morning based on curernt observations. The upper level low over
northern Mexico may send a minor vorticity lobe close enough to the SW and scntrl
part of the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon and evening to cause at
least a small threat of showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance probability of precipitation for this
area during the afternoon and evening hours are plausible.
Tuesday and most of Tuesday night should generally remain dry across
the region in advance of a stronger western US upper level trough...which
is now prognosticated by all short range models to be faster moving across the
central and southern High Plains. Considering good model agreement on this
scenario...best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday and early Wednesday
evening...with improving conditions from west to east late Wednesday night.
Have done some adjustments to pop grids for Wednesday and Wednesday night to
better account for latest model trends. Retained slight chance probability of precipitation for SW
Texas Panhandle for late Tuesday night. Benign weather seen for Thursday and
Medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance is in reasonably
good agreement on the large scale pattern this weekend into early
next week. The trend has been for stronger upper level ridging and
warmer temperatures this weekend. Some differences in timing and
amplitude of an upper level trough that approaches by early next
week exist. Kept the forecast dry due to limited moisture.