Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1253 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Update...
earlier band of rain that produced some greater than quarter inch
totals across the central OK Panhandle has weakened in tandem with
weakening 700 mb-500 mb frontogenetic forcing. Some light rain will remain
possible across the eastern half of the panhandles this
afternoon...with any such precipitation ending from west to east with
time. Updated products will be issued shortly to tweak afternoon probability of precipitation
based on radar trends and nudge temperatures downward in spots.

Kb

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs...any lingering light rain will remain east of the terminals
this afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to scatter/lift into the VFR
range by late afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the
evening hours...however as northeast winds veer around to the
southeast and south overnight...increasing low-level moisture may
bring a return of fog and low clouds. Have inserted MVFR conditions
at kama and kguy from roughly 08-15z. Will keep kdht VFR for
now where confidence in low clouds/fog is a little lower...but
certainly not out of the question. Conditions could drop into the IFR
range overnight with the fog/low clouds...but confidence is too low
to go lower than MVFR at this time. Southwest winds will increase middle to late
Friday morning...clearing out any low clouds and fog.

Kb

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 554 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014/

Discussion...
the upper level shortwave trough which was expected to cause the
development of showers across northern and eastern parts of the forecast area has
been a dud so far. Very little precipitation has occurred in the Texas
and OK pnhdls. Have decided to undercut guidance pop values for this
morning for most of the area due to lack of shower activity.
Continued to place highest probability of precipitation eastern half of OK Panhandle extending into
eastern Texas Panhandle as the axis of the shortwave trough moves across that area
this morning. Left in lingering slight chance probability of precipitation for only far eastern Texas
Panhandle this afternoon. Cooler temperatures seen today in the wake of the most
recent cold frontal passage.

Benign weather is anticipated for Friday. The next upper level
shortwave trough in the southern stream flow is prognosticated to affect southern High
Plains this weekend. Short and medium range models are in better
agreement this morning with the track and speed of this particular
system. The once concern is that most models are not very
enthusiastic about probability of precipitation this weekend and have trended towards less
and less coverage and associated quantitative precipitation forecast amounts the past few runs.
Because of that...did not increase probability of precipitation for any period Friday night through
Sunday for this forecast package. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight Friday night for far western Texas Panhandle look plausible...followed
by slight chance to chance probability of precipitation Sat and Sat night areawide with a trends
towards decreasing precipitation chances after midnight Sat night.

The axis of this next upper level shortwave trough will be passing over
the area Sunday so have only included slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
in OK Panhandle and eastern Texas Panhandle. Generally dry weather is then foreseen
for the early to middle part of next week at this time as it appears
we may get dry slotted from the next vigorous upper level storm
system. For this reason...have omitted probability of precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Andrade

Fire weather...
neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
through Monday. If sufficient precipitation does not occur this
weekend in association with an upper level storm system...then elevated
to critical fire weather conditions may develop across western and
central sections of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles next Tuesday
and Wednesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity values.

Andrade

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

08/15