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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1113 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Aviation...
for the 06z tafs...this is a very low confidence forecast. Light rain
showers currently impacting kguy should continue for the next hour or
two...then rain chances become much less certain. Kdht and kguy would
be most likely to see any thunderstorms and rain overnight...though chances are too low
to include more than thunderstorms in the vicinity in prevailing groups at this time. Low
clouds expected at all sites by 12z...with MVFR or lower ceilings possible.

Nf

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 651 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015/

Aviation...
for the 00z tafs...main concern this taf period will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms to impact taf sites. Current activity may
continue near taf sites for next several hours...then maybe a few
hours before any additional storms have a chance to move through.
Highest confidence for any storms after 08z-09z Friday will be at
kdht and kguy...so have prevailing group included through morning
hours there. Also could see low clouds develop by morning...so have
mention of scattered to broken 1500 feet deck at all sites by early
Friday morning. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Nf

Previous discussion... /issued 122 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015/

Discussion...
have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the western panhandles
for the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Vorticity maximum over northeast
New Mexico is expected to rotate northeast and east across the
Oklahoma Panhandle or southwest Kansas late tonight. Plenty of
moisture is found across the panhandles. We also have some 850 mb
and 700 mb confluence over the northern County Warning Area. Believe that we have
the potential to have some intense rainfall from the thunderstorms
that form this afternoon and tonight. The best chance of these
intense thunderstorms will be across the western panhandles. The
eastern panhandles will likely be a little more stable after the
current convection moves east...so the chances of thunderstorms with
very heavy rain seems less likely there.

A northwest flow aloft will bring periodic short wave troughs across
the panhandles Friday and beyond. Therefore...will continue with off
an on chances of showers and thunderstorms through the extended
forecast. The main threat will continue to be heavy rain and strong
winds.

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Friday for the following zones:
Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...
Randall...Sherman.

OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Friday for the following zones:
Cimarron.



&&

$$

06/11

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