Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1059 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014
for 06z tafs...a band of light showers will persist over the
southeast Texas Panhandle through around 09z. Otherwise...no effects
from these showers at kama...kdht or kguy. Generally VFR
conditions...although some MVFR ceilings could develop after 09z with
just enough moisture available. Clearing still anticipated by 18z on
Sunday with continued light north winds of less than 15 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 532 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/
the snow threat has ended across much of the region. Have canceled
the Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle. Expect cloudiness
to persist through the night. Will be keeping an eye on some possible
fog development by early morning...but at this time not expecting
significant reductions in visibility.
Previous discussion... /issued 512 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/
for 00z tafs...an upper level low pressure system continues to track
across the region. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist at
kama...kdht and kguy through the overnight hours. Have included some
IFR ceilings and reduced visibility slightly after 09z. Still expect
improving ceilings by middle to late morning and certainly by 18z on Saturday.
Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/
light snow continues to move across mostly the northern panhandles
this afternoon. Accumulations have been rather light with Dalhart
being the big Winner today with one inch of snow reported. Think
snow will taper off in intensity this evening so will allow the
Winter Weather Advisory for the far northwest to continue until 6pm.
Very light snow/flurries will linger overnight as the trough finally
pushes across the region with lows falling into the teens.
For the weekend...dry conditions with high pressure settling over the
area will be the main story. Saturday will be chilly with highs
struggling to surpass the freezing mark with lows Sunday morning back
in the teens. However...southwest winds will develop on Sunday allowing
temperatures to at least moderate some with 40s to even a few 50s
The big freeze is definitely coming for the work week as the
coldest air of the season will invade the panhandles. The cold front
will push through the area on Monday bringing another surge of Arctic
air. High temperatures on Monday will reach the 30s and lower 40s...but
then the bottom falls out as far as temperatures are concerned. Lows
Tuesday morning will be the start of it as temperatures fall into the
single digits and teens with wind chills potentially below zero.
Highs on Tuesday will be bitterly cold with some single digit
readings possible especially north with middle to upper teens being the
likely scenario for much of the area. Not only will it be cold...but
cloudy skies and light snow/flurries will be the theme Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the trough slowly moves over the area. Wednesday
morning lows will be the coldest of the week with single digits
expected area wide. Daytime highs will be slightly warmer with 20s
expected Wednesday afternoon.
A warming trend begins on Thursday and continues into the weekend as a
closed upper low develops across Arizona and moves closer to the
area. This system has the potential to be the best chance for
precipitation for the area during this forecast time frame...although
exact timing and track of the low are somewhat uncertain.
Regardless...Friday into Saturday could have the best chance for
some much needed rain/snow for the area.