Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
403 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Discussion...
well the panhandles have been on the outside looking in today as
far as rain with the bulk of the heavy rainfall remaining south of
the forecast area. This will all change...slowly but surely...but
likely only for the southern half of the Texas panhandles.

Quite a bit of dry air is evident on water vapor satellite today
which can explain the bulk of the rain remaining mostly south of the
forecast area. For tonight...think this dry air will keep a lot of the
area just that...dry. A few scattered showers with a rumble of
thunder or two will still be possible across the far southern Texas
Panhandle.

Friday through Saturday...plenty of moisture from the remnants of
Odile will still remain across the region pushing that above
mentioned dry air slightly more northward. There will be a very very
very fine line as to who gets the heavy rainfall. So decided to go
ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch since the past two weekends have
seen heavy rainfall...and the threat for 1 to 2 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts is still there. Really think the main heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat will be across the southern Texas
Panhandle...especially the southeast Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately...the
Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles could remain mostly dry
through Saturday. So with that said...best chances of rainfall will
remain south of the Canadian river during the next 48 hours.

Sunday...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility
across the entire area although widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected. In fact...Monday through the middle of next week will have
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with the best chances
for rain remaining across the eastern panhandles. High temperatures
will be near normal in the 70s and lower 80s.

Kns

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 63 75 62 78 60 / 30 90 80 50 40
Beaver OK 64 84 67 79 61 / 5 20 60 50 30
Boise City OK 60 79 62 79 58 / 10 50 50 20 20
Borger Texas 65 79 67 78 63 / 20 50 70 50 40
Boys Ranch Texas 64 76 62 79 61 / 30 70 70 30 30
canyon Texas 63 75 62 77 61 / 40 90 90 40 40
Clarendon Texas 65 79 66 77 62 / 30 80 90 60 50
Dalhart Texas 61 76 61 79 59 / 20 60 50 30 20
Guymon OK 63 81 64 79 59 / 10 30 60 30 20
Hereford Texas 63 73 62 77 59 / 50 90 80 40 40
Lipscomb Texas 65 82 67 78 63 / 10 30 70 60 40
Pampa Texas 64 78 65 78 60 / 20 50 80 50 40
Shamrock Texas 66 81 68 77 63 / 20 50 80 60 50
Wellington Texas 68 81 69 77 65 / 30 60 80 60 50

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...gray...Oldham...
Potter...Randall...Wheeler.

OK...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations