Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
540 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

VFR conditions as skies remain sky clear through the valid taf forecast
period. Light mainly southwest winds at or under 10 kts through 12z



Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015/

forecast challenges will be high temperatures and winds through the forecast
period. Snow pack had little or no impact on high temperatures Wednesday as
temperatures still managed to climb into the middle 40s. With most or all of
the snow pack melted now...will stay close or go above MOS guidance
today into the weekend. Although no completely ruling out possible 60
degree highs today...feel GFS MOS guidance may be just a bit too warm
and NAM MOS guidance definitely way too cool. Northwesterly upper
flow will continue across the panhandles today as upper trough exits
further east away from the forecast area. Shortwave ridging builds in
over the panhandles Saturday before breaking down late in the
weekend as southern stream upper low approaches from the southwestern
states by early next week.

Panhandles should remain north of best low level moisture and
middle/upper level dynamics...therefore dry conditions will prevail
into early next week. Cold front moves through the forecast area
Sunday with little if any temperature difference Sunday and Monday...just
slightly cooler Monday. Weakness in the upper flow by the middle and
end of next week as upper ridge builds in over the southwestern
states and into the central rockies and Central Plains states...while
upper trough and developing closed upper low prevails across the middle
Mississippi River valley southwest across Oklahoma and back into West
Texas and the panhandles during the latter half of next week. Near or
slightly above seasonable temperatures and dry conditions expected to
continue through late next week.



Ama watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations