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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
356 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Short term...
Halloween got off to a chilly start today as the area remains under
the influence of a cool high surface ridge. While afternoon temperatures
have generally climbed into the 50s /which is certainly much warmer
than the winter-like conditions across the Great Lakes/ it will be
chilly for trick or treat festivities this evening. Temperatures in the middle
to upper 40s are expected by around sunset this evening. The pressure
gradient will tighten later this evening in response to deepening
surface trough over eastern Colorado. The enhanced surface winds and
increasing cloud cover generated by a passing upper disturbance
should prevent widespread frost and freezing temperatures. However over the
far eastern Texas and Oklahoma where wind speeds are expected to
remain light...patchy frost and/or a light freeze may be possible.
Did refrain from issuing any advisories and/or warnings given spatial
distribution of potential frost and/or freeze.

An upper ridge will reside over the Southern Plains Saturday while
the surface trough deepens further over eastern Colorado. This will
result in strengthening southwest winds along with slightly warmer
temperatures.

Long term...the evolution of a long wave upper trough will be the
main focus in the long term.

The upper ridge will slide east of the region Sunday in response to
the approaching upper trough. With the upper flow transitioning out
of the southwest...atmospheric moisture will start increasing across
the area Sunday into early next week. A weak upper disturbance
passing across the area can provide enough support for scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Better rain chances will occur Monday as the upper trough edges
closer to the area. A cold front will push into the area by Monday
night...helping to increase precipitation chances across the area. Model
solutions suggest an amplified upper air pattern will continue into
next week with the eventual southern stream cutoff upper low
midweek. However model solutions are showing large differences as the
European model (ecmwf) is slower with this upper low and indicates another round of
showers as the upper low lifts to the northeast. Have inserted slight
chance probability of precipitation Thursday but left out mention Friday given these model
discrepancies.

Temperatures will climb into the middle 60s to middle 70s Sunday while the cold
front will usher in much cooler air middle week where highs will only
climb into the 50s to near 60 Tuesday. Slightly warmer temperatures will
climb into the 60s for the rest of the period.

Clk



&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

09/05

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