Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
654 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
VFR conditions are expected. There is a slight chance of a shower or
storm around midday to early afternoon at kama and kguy...but chances
are too low to include in the tafs at this time. Otherwise...dry
conditions and generally light southerly winds are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
today-tonight: thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon
and evening, mainly west of a Liberal to Claude line. A severe storm
can't be ruled out, but most storms will remain sub-severe. Quarter
size hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain will be the main
hazards. The storms should dissipate by 1 am.
Wednesday-Thursday night: continued to keep the forecast hot and dry.
One minor concern will be a shortwave trough diving southwest along
the eastern periphery of the upper high. This disturbance could
trigger a few thunderstorms across the eastern half of the panhandles
Wednesday afternoon and evening, but confidence in this scenario is
Friday-Monday night: the hottest day looks to be Friday, and then the
heat backs off slightly as we head into the weekend and early next
week as the upper ridge builds farther to our west. In response to
this, a more substantial northwest flow aloft pattern will develop,
leading to better chances for thunderstorms.
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
next Monday as either relative humidity values will remain above 20
percent and/or 20-foot winds will remain below 15 miles per hour.