Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
631 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015
for the 12z tafs...periods of middle and high level clouds are expected
during this forecast cycle. Surface winds will increase around middle morning as a
surface trough of low pressure organizes just to the west of the area.
Winds will relax somewhat late this afternoon and early this evening.
The surface trough of low pressure will gradually slide eastward across northern taf
sites this evening and tonight. Overall...VFR conditions are expected
at all terminal sites through 12z Tuesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 526 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/
minimum temperatures this morning have remained a bit warmer than
expected across portions of the western Texas Panhandle. Winds will
turn southwesterly this morning and increase to around 15 to 20 kts
this afternoon allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to
low 80s...though increasing middle level clouds may keep temperatures
from climbing too high with downsloping winds. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across the Oklahoma Panhandle and portions of
the Texas Panhandle. The forecast gets a bit more interesting on
Tuesday. A weak shortwave Delaware-amplifies the upper level ridge some. Models
are disagreeing on the placement and progression of a surface trough
across the panhandles. Resultant variances in low level wind
fields...southeast vs. Southwest...creating issues on where to draw
the best precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. 00z
European model (ecmwf) came in a little closer to the NAM...showing southeasterly flow
across the southeastern Texas Panhandle...but lags a bit behind the
NAM. With surface temperatures pushing the middle 80s across the
panhandles...high based thunderstorms are possible within the
southeastern to eastern zones and as such have left chance probability of precipitation for
thunderstorms in place. Wind threat seems to be the biggest concern
from any strong storms that can develop...though severe thunderstorms
are not anticipated. On Wednesday...downslope flow will allow
temperatures to climb into the high 80s with even a few 90s expected.
This will again allow for at least elevated fire weather conditions
across the area. A weak shortwave crosses the northern panhandles on
Thursday...looking only at this time to increase cloud cover and
reduce high temperatures in those areas.
Friday a weak cold front drops into the panhandles. Brought probability of precipitation up a
little over northern sections while still remaining below slight
chance...but may be next opportunity for precipitation chances and
mainly just over far northern sections. Temperatures will fall closer
to normal for the beginning of April and rebound again Sunday and Monday.
elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon.
Relative humidity values will fall below 20 percent across all of the
panhandles...but 20 foot winds greater than 15 miles per hour are only expected
across the Oklahoma Panhandle...and the northern and western sections
of the Texas Panhandle. On Tuesday...relative humidity values will
remain low...but winds are expected to remain less than 10 miles per hour. Also
for Tuesday...there is a chance for thunderstorms over the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Elevated fire weather conditions will
return to the panhandles on Wednesday with temperatures well above
normal...low relative humidity values...and 20 foot westerly winds
greater than 15 miles per hour.