Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
634 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
updated for 00z aviation discussion.
VFR conditions and light winds can be expected during much of the next
24 hours with winds gusting up to 28kts after 13/16z.
Discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014/
Through tonight: with clear skies and light winds in place, a
seasonably cool night can be expected with lows dropping into the middle
20s to lower 30s.
Thursday-Thursday night: dry, breezy southwest winds return, but
this will allow temperatures to rebound back into the 60s and 70s. A
weak cold front slips into the area late Thursday night.
Friday-Friday night: the front will move across the entire area by
late Friday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the
front, but still very comfortable in the 60s. As a shortwave trough
approaches from the west, some light rain will likely develop across
central New Mexico Friday afternoon. Kept a slight chance of rain for
our southwestern areas during the afternoon to account for any of
this activity moving in, but better chances will hold off until Friday
evening/night when forcing for ascent will be aided by isentropic
lift, the shortwave trough, and the left exit region of a 125-knots
upper jet. While the stronger dynamics will stay to our south, it
appears that areas south of a Dalhart to Lipscomb line will have
sufficient lift and moisture for a chance of rain. There might even
be a few rumbles of thunder in the southeast Texas Panhandle after 10
PM where most unstable cape values increase to around 200 j/kg, but
no strong or severe storms are expected.
Saturday-Saturday night: a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm, will
linger across the southeastern counties before exiting into western
Oklahoma late Saturday morning. Our attention quickly turns back to
the northwest as another shortwave trough dives southward out of The
Rockies. The brunt of the forcing with this trough will mainly affect
the western panhandles Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we continued
with the slight chance of showers west of a Guymon to Amarillo line.
Better chances for rain areawide, but particularly across the western
panhandles, will be Saturday evening as frontogenetical forcing teams
with forcing for ascent from the shortwave trough. The precipitation
type is expected to remain liquid for most locations, but there could
be a rain/snow mix in the far northwest late Saturday night before
the precipitation ends. However, accumulations, if any, will be very
light. As a stronger cold front moves across the area Saturday
evening, northerly winds will strengthen considerably. In fact, there
are some indications that advisory-level winds may occur in the far
Sunday-wednesday: the temperature roller coaster will continue
through this period, but the pattern looks supportive of dry
conditions. We may have to watch out for a more active looking
pattern toward the end of next week that could bring either fire
weather and/or thunderstorms.
solid elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday
across all of the panhandles due to relative humidity values between
13 and 20 percent and 20-foot southwest winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour. Winds
will shift to the north late Thursday night and Friday morning as a
cold front moves southward. 20-foot northeasterly winds between 10
and 20 miles per hour are expected Friday afternoon. However, no elevated or
critical fire weather conditions on Friday as relative humidity
values drop to or just slightly above 20 percent. No elevated or
critical fire weather conditions are expected on Saturday as relative
humidity values remain above 20 percent. There are some indications
that elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts
of the area Sunday through Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.