Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1243 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
for the 06z tafs...little change to previous aviation afd. A strong
cold front will move across kguy and kdht during the 06z to 07z time
period...and then kama during the 09z to 10z time frame. Winds will
increase and become gusty behind this boundary for several hours...
then diminish late Thursday afternoon. It still appears that most of
the precipitation associated with this storm system will remain
generally north and east of the terminal sites...and have omitted
this element from this forecast cycle.
Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/
for the 00z tafs...main weather element will be passage of a strong
cold front later tonight across the forecast area. Expect the cold front
to move through kguy and kdht around 06z to 07z...and then kama around
09z to 10z Thursday morning. Winds will ramp up behind this boundary
for several hours...then diminish late Thursday afternoon at all
sites. It appears most of the precipitation associated with this next
storm system will remain north and east of the terminal sites...so
did not include it for this forecast cycle. Will continue to monitor
trends this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 220 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/
no changes of significance have been made to the forecast. Low
thunderstorm probability of precipitation have been retained tonight through Thursday
morning as sharp middle-level trough traverses the area.
Associated cold front expected to enter northwest part of forecast
area around midnight...and to quickly pass through the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles by sunrise. Winds will increase notably with
frontal passage...but do not expect sustained winds to be above 35
miles per hour. North northwest winds will prevail on Thursday...gradually
diminishing during the afternoon.
Onset of dry lower tropospheric flow lead US to expect no
precipitation Thursday afternoon through Wednesday. Reinforcing cold
front early Friday will lead to a second day of below normal
Mild daytime temperatures are expected Friday through Monday as
northwest flow aloft continues...with warmer condtions beginning
Tuesday as flow transitions to zonal and then southwest. 03
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
Wednesday due to either 20-foot winds remaining below 15 miles per hour and/or
relative humidity values remaining above 20 percent. 03