Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
335 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Discussion...
isolated showers and thunderstorms seen on radar at this time
expected to continue this evening. Have increased probability of precipitation along a
corridor from southwest to northeast along instability axis in
region where low-level moisture flux convergence expected to be
slightly higher.

Sunday morning probability of precipitation have been kept...but have trimmed same in central
sections...where upper- and lower-level forcing are expected to be
weak. Chance probability of precipitation have been retained Sunday afternoon as sharp middle-
level trough should generate ascent.

Have realigned Sunday evening probability of precipitation...now with highest probability of precipitation across
southeast half of forecast area ahead of expected vorticity maximum
in region of Richer moisture. Have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation
late Sunday night in eastern sections...where expected final
vorticity maximum encounters 850 mb cold front.

Monday through Wednesday morning have been kept dry. Inherited
Wednesday afternoon probability of precipitation in far eastern part of forecast area have
been expanded westward...where moisture ahead of dryline expected to
be positioned. Have likewise introduced probability of precipitation in east Wednesday
night. Remaining periods have been left dry. 03

Cockrell

&&

Fire weather...
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible
on Wednesday across the western half of the panhandles...and on
Thursday across the far southwest part of the Texas Panhandle.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday and
Saturday across the western half of the panhandles. 03

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 52 74 53 76 49 / 40 40 40 5 0
Beaver OK 55 77 53 79 47 / 40 50 40 5 0
Boise City OK 50 71 50 72 48 / 30 50 10 5 0
Borger Texas 58 75 56 80 53 / 40 40 40 5 0
Boys Ranch Texas 52 78 52 79 50 / 40 40 10 5 0
canyon Texas 50 75 52 77 48 / 40 40 20 5 0
Clarendon Texas 54 75 56 78 52 / 30 40 50 5 0
Dalhart Texas 49 73 46 74 47 / 30 40 10 5 0
Guymon OK 53 75 52 77 48 / 30 50 10 5 0
Hereford Texas 49 75 50 76 47 / 40 40 10 5 0
Lipscomb Texas 55 78 55 78 48 / 40 50 50 5 0
Pampa Texas 54 75 53 76 51 / 40 50 50 5 0
Shamrock Texas 55 78 58 80 51 / 30 50 50 5 0
Wellington Texas 57 79 58 81 53 / 30 50 50 5 0

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

10/03