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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
610 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Aviation...00z tafs...convection in progress across western Oklahoma
and far northwestern Texas panhandles should remain west and north of
taf sites. Convective models indicate that kdht and kguy could
experience thunderstorms in the vicinity between 02/00z through 02/06z...but confidence remains low
and will handle with amendments. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
occur with diurnal winds between 5 to 15 kts through 02/14z and between 15 to
25 kts after 02/14z. Bieda

Previous discussion... /issued 314 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/

Discussion...
already seen a few showers try to develop across the Oklahoma and
northwestern panhandles this afternoon. Expect to see this
development increase in areal coverage as the hours progress. An
upper level shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft to
help this development spread. We could see a few storms become strong
but a lack of decent deep layer shear should limit the intensity.
Gusty winds and localized heavy rain are the primary hazards expected
with any strong storm.

A few showers may linger across the northern panhandles past midnight
but should dissipate prior to the Wednesday morning commute. With the
panhandles remaining on the western periphery of the upper level
ridge both Wednesday and Thursday we could see showers and
thunderstorms sneak into the western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas
panhandles with a few storms moving into the southwestern panhandles
by Thursday afternoon.

Late Thursday night into Friday morning the upper ridge shifts
eastward and southwest upper level flow will dominate the weather
pattern. This will allow for a further expansion of precipitation chances
across the area.

By the end of the weekend the upper ridge begins to build in from the
southeast to cause the upper pattern to become more zonal. This will
open the panhandles up to a weak frontal passage. Medium range models
show that this front could stall across the area before lifting
Tuesday. Yet another frontal passage looks possible at the very end
of this forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 66 91 66 92 67 / 10 5 0 10 10
Beaver OK 69 95 70 96 69 / 30 5 5 5 10
Boise City OK 64 93 65 93 64 / 30 20 10 20 20
Borger Texas 69 93 71 95 70 / 10 5 0 5 10
Boys Ranch Texas 65 94 67 94 68 / 20 5 5 10 20
canyon Texas 64 91 64 92 66 / 10 5 0 10 10
Clarendon Texas 65 92 66 93 67 / 5 0 0 5 5
Dalhart Texas 65 94 64 94 65 / 30 10 10 20 20
Guymon OK 66 94 68 95 68 / 30 5 10 10 20
Hereford Texas 65 92 65 92 65 / 10 5 5 10 10
Lipscomb Texas 69 93 69 94 69 / 20 0 0 5 5
Pampa Texas 67 92 69 92 66 / 10 0 0 5 10
Shamrock Texas 68 94 68 94 68 / 5 0 0 5 5
Wellington Texas 68 95 68 95 70 / 5 0 0 5 0

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

98/14

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