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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1124 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Update...
adjusted precipitation chances for the rest of the morning to match up with
current radar trends. Primary middle/upper-level shortwave trough
embedded within northwest flow aloft is currently moving southeast
across NE...with a weaker secondary shortwave over the northwest
panhandles. Expect some showers and embedded thunderstorms to
continue to develop late this morning into the early afternoon hours
ahead of this wave.

Additional convective development is expected by middle to late
afternoon. Better coverage will likely be across the eastern
panhandles ahead of the advancing weaker shortwave...while the
stronger forcing from the primary wave currently over NE focuses
mainly east of the panhandles. A surface boundary is currently draped
west to east across the area...but how much development we see along
it this afternoon is still somewhat uncertain given its rather
diffuse nature. Based on the stronger forcing aloft with the primary
shortwave focusing just east of the County Warning Area and current cloud cover
across the panhandles...think the more organized/widespread severe
weather risk will likely materialize just east of the panhandles
across the body of OK where limited cloud cover has allowed temperatures to
already reach the upper 80s to lower 90s /versus current upper 70s to
lower 80s across the panhandles/. However...with some breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and surface dewpoints in the 60s...sufficient
instability will likely develop locally to support some risk of strong
to severe storms. Deep layer shear will be a little stronger than
recent days /on the order of 30 kts/...which will be sufficient for
some multicellular storm organization. Strong winds are expected to
be the primary concern with any strong/severe convection. Precipitable waters
around 1.5 inches may produce some added water loading...enhancing
downdraft strength. Can/T rule out some severe hail...but skinny cape
profiles/limited cape in the hail growth zone and fairly warm temperatures
aloft will limit this threat.

Also knocked down forecast highs for this afternoon by a few degrees
due to the cloud cover.

Kb/hl

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/

Aviation...
for the 12z tafs...isolated morning thunderstorms around kama should begin to
dissipate around 14z. Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop across the OK and
Texas pnhdls later this afternoon and tonight. Have included thunderstorms in the vicinity at all
terminal sites beginning late this afternoon into the evening hours.
A weak cold frontal boundary draped across the region will gradually
lose its characteristics late in this forecast cycle.

Andrade

Previous discussion... /issued 445 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/

Discussion...
isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to dissipate
through the morning hours. A slight change to the weather pattern
today as the upper level ridge over the southwest U.S. Retreats
westward some today. High temperatures will be slightly
cooler today as the ridge retreats and clouds encompass the area. Falling
heights and weak disturbances coming off the ridge to the west will
provide some upper level support...and a weak surface boundary expected
to remain across the panhandles will provide some surface support for
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Surface moisture
will increase across the area with a fair amount of southeasterly
flow helping to spread higher dewpoints into the panhandles. The
possibility for some strong to severe storms is there as bulk shear
values increase to 30 to near 40kts...mainly the directional variety
but should be enough to support stronger storms...especially over the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle to begin with. Moistening and generally
warm profiles in the -10 to -20 range indicate that larger hail is
possible...but appears that damaging winds may be the bigger hazard.
Localized flooding is also possible with slower moving storms and
quite an increase in available moisture. Overnight convection will
drift southeastward through the early morning hours on Friday.

The panhandles remain in an area of generally northwest flow aloft as
the ridge remains to the west of the area and a deepening surface
trough remains entrenched over the Great Lakes and Midwest. This will
keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast as disturbances
rotate around the ridge and have increased probability of precipitation some for Friday from
previous forecast. Looks like the ridge will build across the area on Sunday
and decrease the chances for thunderstorms. On Monday...a front will
move into the panhandles and increase the chances for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms again to start the week.

Elsenheimer

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

10/08

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