Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1033 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015

no real changes to forecast of six hours ago. Light surface winds
overnight become southwest near 20 knots during the day on Monday.
Increasing high- and middle-level clouds expected through the period
with no visibility restrictions. VFR forecast continues next 24



Previous discussion... /issued 629 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

surface winds will gust for about another hour...and then drop
notably to below 10 knots. Direction of surface winds will generally
trend toward east and southeast this evening...and to light south and
southwest by sunrise. No low clouds or visibility restrictions
expected...other than brief reduction in blowing dust near
kdht...where visible satellite reveals dust plume originating from
southeast Colorado. As surface winds continue to diminish...
opportunity for additional MVFR visibilities will also wane. On
Monday...southwest surface winds will increase into the 15 to 25 knots
range between 15z and 18z. Some increase in middle-level clouds
expected on Monday.


Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015/

Short term...
cold front has surged well south of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles
this morning. A tight pressure gradient behind this front and 30+ kts
at 850 mb led to the development of strong northerly winds over the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles today. Winds will quickly diminish this
evening as surface high pressure builds into the Central Plains.
Cooler air in the wake of this frontal passage will lead to a cooler
night with lows ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The surface high will scoot off to the east on Monday while an upper
ridge amplifies over the western Continental U.S.. surface winds will increase
out of the southwest Monday...leading to pleasant early Spring
weather with maximum temperatures in the 70s. Winds can become a bit
breezy at times in the afternoon as a surface trough deepens over
eastern New Mexico. This can lead to a period of elevated fire
weather although winds are not expected to be as strong as they were

Long term...
low-level moisture will begin to flow back into West Texas Tuesday
beneath cooler middle-level temperatures. Although 0-6 km shear will be
modest...thunderstorms can develop in this unstable air mass
although the position of the dryline Tuesday afternoon will determine
how far east these storms will be. Also an upper-level shortwave will
eject out of old Mexico and across Texas during the day. Nwp model
guidance keeps the bulk of any precipitation south and east of the Ama County Warning Area
as the best lift and moisture will be located there. However cannot
rule out thunderstorms over the southeastern half of the area and
have maintained slight chance and chance probability of precipitation there Tuesday through
Tuesday night.

The remainder of the week looks to be dry and warm with westerly
upper flow over the central and Southern Plains. High temperatures
will climb into the 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday before an upper-
level disturbance slides across the northern plains. This will send a
cold front through the area Thursday. High temperatures will cool
back into the 70s over much of the area although a surge of cooler
air will knock highs back even further on good Friday. Rising heights
under upper ridging and southerly surface flow indicate temperatures
rebounding back into the 70s for Easter Sunday.


Fire weather...
elevated fire weather conditions will continue through early this
evening before northerly 20 foot winds diminish to under 10 miles per hour
while relative humidity values recover to above 20 percent. Elevated
fire weather conditions will return to the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles Monday as southwest 20 foot winds increase to around
15 to 20 miles per hour while relative humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
Although relative humidity values will once again fall to 15 to 20
percent over the western and central Texas and Oklahoma panhandles
Tuesday...20 foot winds will be light and variable throughout much
of the day precluding elevated and critical fire weather conditions.
Thunderstorms are possible over mainly the southeastern half of the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Neither
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through the
remainder of the week.


Ama watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations