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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
631 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Aviation...
isolated thunderstorms dissipating quickly with no threat to any of
the terminals. Light surface winds will trend from east to
southwest overnight. By 18z Sunday...southerly surface winds
expected to increase to around 10 knots. Generally clear sky expected
overnight with no visibility restrictions foreseen. Late afternoon
high-based cumulus expected on Sunday. VFR forecast continues next
24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/

Discussion...
northeast to southwest elongated upper ridge from the southwestern
states into the central rockies with an upper low over the west
central portions of Texas. A few convection developed over the far
western and southwestern Texas Panhandle...however feel that these
will not last past 00z Sunday or will move west and south into
eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains. Decided to leave probability of precipitation
out tonight and Sunday. The upper ridge will continue to build east
through early next week as the upper flow transitions from more
northerly to northeasterly. The upper ridge will continue to be
forced eastward as an upper trough approaches from the west. On the
western periphery of the upper ridge and ahead of the approaching
upper trough...shortwave trough over the central and southern rockies
will trigger isolated convection mainly across the western Oklahoma
and northwest Texas panhandles by Monday afternoon and Monday night.
The shortwave trough will track east across the forecast area Tuesday
with possibly isolated convection across the western panhandles
Tuesday.

Subsidence behind the departing upper trough Wednesday and Thursday will
allow for dry conditions as the upper ridge builds back across West
Texas and the panhandles. Another upper trough will approach the
panhandles by the end of the week ushering in a cold front in time
for the upcoming weekend. Convection chances will increase across
much of the panhandles by the end of next week.

Schneider

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 62 92 64 95 66 / 5 5 0 5 5
Beaver OK 61 94 64 98 70 / 5 5 0 5 10
Boise City OK 60 93 63 95 63 / 5 0 5 20 20
Borger Texas 64 94 68 97 70 / 5 5 0 5 5
Boys Ranch Texas 61 94 65 96 66 / 5 5 0 5 10
canyon Texas 62 92 63 96 64 / 5 5 0 5 5
Clarendon Texas 64 92 64 96 67 / 5 5 0 0 5
Dalhart Texas 60 93 63 95 66 / 5 0 5 10 20
Guymon OK 61 94 64 97 67 / 5 5 5 5 10
Hereford Texas 62 91 65 94 64 / 10 5 0 5 10
Lipscomb Texas 61 93 65 98 70 / 5 5 0 5 5
Pampa Texas 63 90 65 94 68 / 5 5 0 5 5
Shamrock Texas 63 92 65 97 68 / 5 5 0 0 5
Wellington Texas 64 94 66 97 68 / 5 0 0 0 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

03/06

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