Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
556 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014
/12z tafs/ confidence in intermittent low clouds and fog through at
least 18/14-15z has increased at kama. MVFR ceilings/visible also may briefly
expand northward toward kdht this morning. Otherwise...VFR to near
MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the
period ending 19/12z. This as clouds expand northward and the onset
of deteriorating conditions with increased chances of precipitation
occurring beyond the scope of this taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/
no major changes have been made to the forecast. Have leaned
heavily upon solution from 00z European model (ecmwf)...which has been consistent with
evolution and timing of remants of Tropical Storm Odile.
Have increased probability of precipitation today and tonight across southwest and south
central parts of forecast area. Overnight convection across South
Plains appears to be associated with 700 mb vorticity lobe which
should provide additional lift as it moves north.
On Friday and Friday night...as 700 mb closed low moves into
southwest part of forecast area...additional more widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected. Heavy rains will be a distinct
possibility during this time...and a Flash Flood Watch will likely
be issued later today or early Friday.
Slow progression of closed low will keep atmosphere primed for
thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. Probability of precipitation have been
increased across eastern and southern sections based on expected
movement of parent system.
Low probability of precipitation have been retained or slightly increased Sunday through
Monday due to expected continuation of moist upslope flow during this
time. Low probability of precipitation retained Monday night through Tuesday night as moist
unstable airmass remains in place. 03
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
Wednesday as relative humidity values remain well above necessary
thresholds and fuels are moistened by wetting rains. 03