Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
509 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
Aviation... /for the 12z tafs/
VFR conditions are expected thruogh the forecast period. Dry westerly
flow gives high confidence that fog will not form late tonight.
Any ceilings should be well within VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/
areas of freezing fog this morning over eastern Texas Panhandle
expected to linger well into the morning. Will keep freezing fog
advisory going through 10 am.
Otherwise...quiet weather is expected for the next several days. Dry
northwest flow aloft develops by early this evening as closed low
continues to depart farther to our northeast. Generally clear sky
will allow airmass to modify further today in spite of light
northwest winds. Dry northwest flow aloft expected to continue
through Thursday. Westerly component to low-level winds will
support lack of low clouds and continued warmer conditions. By
Thursday...all sections expected to reach the 50s for highs.
Beginning Friday...southwest flow aloft develops in advance of next
incoming shortwave trough. Models exhibit differences in timing and
evolution of closed low which will pass over or near the panhandles.
Will keep low probability of precipitation going for Saturday night and Sunday. Overnight
temperatures Saturday night have been used as basis for possible mix
of light snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Southeast Texas
Panhandle expected to remain warm enough for all liquid
precipitation...with a mix with snow possible elsewhere. In any
case...limited available moisture expected to result in light
precipitation totals. 03
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
Monday. Relative humidities will remain above 20 percent . No
excessive winds are expected. 03
Texas...freezing fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for the
following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...