Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
609 am CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
a calm start to the 12z taf issuance will change by this afternoon
thanks to a strong cold front. The cold front will cause a wind shift
to a northerly direction at kguy and kdht around 18z and kama around
22z. Winds will begin to ramp up with the wind shift but the
strongest winds will lag an hour or two behind. Sustained winds near
30kts and gusts up to 45kt will be possible at each terminal. An aww
will be needed for kama due to these strong wind gusts.
There is a chance for blowing dust with these strong winds and have
inserted a mention into the prevailing conditions. Confidence is low
on the degree the visibilities will be restricted with the blowing
dust. Kama also has the best chance...still low...of the terminals
to see precipitation. Have not included mention of precipitation in the terminal
as of now due to low confidence of occurrence.
Towards the last 6 hours of this taf there will be a chance for MVFR
ceilings to develop at each terminal.
Previous discussion... /issued 415 am CDT Sat Mar 15 2014/
only minor changes have been made to the earlier forecast. Isolated
thunderstorms are forecast for southeast Texas Panhandle this
morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this
afternoon...with greatest probability of precipitation in southeast and eastern sections
where deeper moisture will be encountered by cold front. Probability of precipitation for
showers and thunderstorms kept this evening...although have trimmed
same across northern zones owing to loss of instability in Post-
frontal airmass. No probability of precipitation after 100 am Sunday.
Strong north winds expected to develop behind cold front...
beginning early this evening. A Wind Advisory may be needed tonight
and Sunday morning. Will not issue until area of strongest winds
can be better refined. Blowing dust is expected tonight and
through 400 PM on Sunday. Will have to wait for any dust plumes to
become established before an advisory or warning for blowing dust
can be issued without over-warning.
Otherwise...typically fine Panhandle weather is expected. Sunday
maxima expected to be about 10 degrees fahrenheit below climatology...with
other days on the high side of same. 03
a cold front will move through the panhandles today...causing winds
to shift to the north. No elevated or critical fire weather
conditions are expected today due to relative humidity values
remaining above 20 percent. Briefly elevated fire weather
conditions may develop on Sunday in northwestern sections of the
combined panhandles. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
may develop area-wide on Monday. Elevated to briefly critical fire
weather conditions may develop on Tuesday. Elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible on Thursday. 03