Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
447 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016

winds should remain around 10 knots or less through this forecast.
Westerly winds this morning will back to more southerly by middle to
late afternoon. Winds will then veer around to the northwest
overnight tonight behind a cold front. Skies will remain VFR.


Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016/

as an upper ridge builds over the western and southwestern states
through next Thursday...a dry northwesterly upper flow will prevail
across the panhandles. The upper ridge will shift eastward across the
intermountain region and rockies by the end of next week. Dry
conditions will continue through the latter half of next week. A cold
front will push across the forecast area Sunday and cool surface
ridge builds southeast into the panhandles Monday...another cold
front is forecast to drop south across the forecast area by late
Wednesday or Wednesday night...and another cold front next Friday.
Seasonable or above normal temperatures expected through the end of the
extended forecast period.


Fire weather...
a surface trough will develop today along the Lee of The Rockies west
of the forecast area. Despite the warmer downsloping west and
southwest 20 foot winds expected today...speeds are forecast to
remain below 15 miles per hour this afternoon. Minimum afternoon relative
humidities will fall to between 15 and 20 percent. Elevated fire
weather conditions are no longer expected across the southwest and
south central Texas Panhandle due to the lighter expected 20 foot
wind speeds. If speeds increase to 15 miles per hour or greater today...elevated
fire weather conditions will develop and a Fire Danger Statement
would be needed by the following shift. Drier conditions expected
through the end of next week and into next Saturday. If minimum
afternoon humidities should fall to 20 percent or less and if 20 foot
wind speeds increase to 15 miles per hour or higher...elevated or even critical
fire weather conditions will develop over portions of the panhandles.



Ama watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations