Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
342 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Short term...
much quieter weather was seen across the panhandles today as the upper
trough that brought the severe storms to the southeastern Texas
Panhandle continues to move across the Central Plains. A surface
ridge over the area will slide off to the east tonight while a
surface Lee side trough deepens across the western High Plains
Friday. Winds will swing back around out of the southwest leading to
a much warmer day /with highs in the 80s/.

Long term...main forecast challenge in the long term
period...Saturday through Thursday...will center over the weekend
as a deep negatively tilted low approaches the area.

An upper ridge ridge will remain across the Southern Plains Saturday
ahead of a strong negatively tilted upper level system. Dry
downsloping winds will push temperatures well into the 80s with some
locations tagging the 90 degree mark. A dryline will mix into the
eastern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles although its still uncertain
how far east this dryline will move to despite the majority of the
models placing it near the Texas/Oklahoma border. Have opted to
maintain the slight chance probability of precipitation over the eastern zones. If storms
develop east of the dryline...moderate instability and steep middle
level lapse rates can result in another round of strong to severe
storms. A Pacific front will drop into the area Sunday as the upper
low continues to deepen as it lifts across the Central Plains.
Although temperatures will be cooler behind the front...strong winds will
once again be present as winds aloft increase as the core of the
upper system passes north of the Ama County Warning Area.

Early next week the upper low will lift toward the Great Lakes
region...with persistent northwest flow developing aloft. This will
result in a dry and cooler weather pattern for much of the week.

Clk

&&

Fire weather...
although minimum relative humidity values will drop to 5 to 15 percent
across much of the area...20 foot winds will increase to around 20 miles per hour
late afternoon. This will make for a brief window where critical
fire weather conditions will occur so have opted to not issue a
Fire Weather Watch. Critical fire weather conditions look more
likely Saturday as 20 foot winds increase to 20 to 30 miles per hour while
relative humidity values fall to 5 to 15 percent. Minimum relative
humidities across the far eastern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles
may be above 20 percent...as they will be located east of a dryline
that is forecast to mix to the eastern panhandles in the afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may also move across this area
while the chance for wetting rainfall will be low for the remainder
of the area. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also
be possible Sunday and Monday while cooler temperatures along with minimum
relative humidity values above 20 percent middle week next week should
preclude elevated and critical fire weather conditions.

Clk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 43 88 53 86 45 / 0 0 0 5 10
Beaver OK 42 87 51 91 52 / 0 0 0 5 20
Boise City OK 39 87 48 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
Borger Texas 49 89 58 87 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
Boys Ranch Texas 43 89 51 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
canyon Texas 43 88 51 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
Clarendon Texas 47 87 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dalhart Texas 36 87 43 84 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
Guymon OK 39 89 49 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
Hereford Texas 42 87 50 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
Lipscomb Texas 44 83 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 10 20
Pampa Texas 47 86 55 86 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Shamrock Texas 48 84 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 20 20
Wellington Texas 48 86 57 89 55 / 0 0 0 20 20

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

14/05