Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1050 PM CST sun Dec 28 2014
variable winds will begin turning northerly early Monday morning
with the approach of a cold front. VFR conditions will prevail
across the panhandles until late afternoon when increasing MVFR
clouds and a slight chance for snow showers develop over the
Oklahoma Panhandle...pushing southward as Monday evening progresses. Sustained
winds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts near 20kts likely by evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CST sun Dec 28 2014/
leading edge of Arctic air mass is over southeast Montana early
this afternoon. This leading edge of Arctic air should arrive in the
panhandles Monday morning with northerly winds. A secondary surge of
Arctic air will arrive during the early evening Monday and will keep
winds up overnight. Therefore...a Wind Chill Advisory may become
necessary Monday night and Tuesday morning. Upslope flow will likely
help clouds and a few areas of light snow to develop across the area
Tuesday. So do not think temperatures will get out of the teens and
20s for highs. Clouds will likely linger into Wednesday...so only a
small moderation in temperature is likely.
All eyes then turn to the upper level storm system taking shape over
the southwest U.S. By Thursday. As this upper level low moves east
toward West Texas it will cause warm air and moisture advection over
the cold dome across the panhandles. Temperatures may moderate into
the 30s on Thursday...but they should drop below freezing again
Thursday night. The below freezing temperatures combined with the
warm air and moisture advection aloft may set up a freezing
rain/freezing drizzle mixed with snow scenario from Thursday night
into Friday morning. Right now it does not look much precipitation will
fall during this timeframe. However...again the models do not
agree on the timing of this system nor do they agree on how much
precipitation will fall. By Friday afternoon and Friday night as
the center of the low moves over or near the panhandles...the
precipitation may turn more to snow.
This system then moves off to the east of the panhandles so
temperatures will be slightly warmer for Saturday.
Confidence in the precipitation type mainly Thursday night into
Friday is still very low at this time. Hopefully the models will
come into better agreement as we get closer.