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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
635 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Aviation...
a few high clouds will drift over the terminals this morning. Southerly
surface winds will commence gusting into the 25 to 30 knots range middle- to
late-morning...with onset of same occurring later at kdht due to
proximity of surface trough.

High-based afternoon and evening cumulus expected to develop
primarily over northwest part of forecast area...including kdht...a
region where isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop.
Thunderstorms most likely to form between 22z today and 04z
Wednesday. Will not include mention of thunder in kdht taf due to
uncertainty regarding location and timing of development.

Surface winds lay down around 01z Wednesday...remaining southerly
below 15 knots through 12z Wednesday. No overnight visibility
restrictions expected. VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/

Discussion...
fairly stagnant pattern to persist through the first
week of September...highlighted by slightly above average
temperatures and thunderstorm chances mainly across western and
northern portions of the panhandles along the eastern extent of the
monsoonal moisture plume.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were lingering across
the far western panhandles early this morning within the monsoon plume.
A middle-level shortwave embedded in weak west/southwest flow aloft and
30-40kt southerly low level jet were helping to sustain this convection. It
should wane a little later this morning as the shortwave advances
northeast into the Central Plains and the low level jet veers to the southwest.

As we start the month of September...it looks like summertime temperatures
will continue. However...we will start to see some signs of the
transition toward fall...namely in the form of breezier winds than
we/ve seen the past few months. With the upper jet having shifted
farther south along the Canadian border/northern tier states and
stronger upper-level troughs/lows beginning to move across this part
of the country...stronger Cross-Mountain flow over The Rockies will
lead to deeper Lee surface troughing...ultimately resulting in
breezier southerly winds locally. Resultant warm air advection will
however keep temperatures slightly above normal for most of the forecast
period with highs mainly in the upper 80s to middle 90s.

Precipitation chances through the next week will continue to be
strongly tied to the monsoon. The panhandles will generally stay in
weak west/southwest flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper
ridge. The eastern extent of the monsoon moisture plume will be
draped across the western panhandles today...supporting renewed isolated
to scattered thunderstorm chances this afternoon into tonight.
Wednesday and Thursday some subtle drying of the column
occurs...however plenty of moisture will still exist across the
western panhandles to support isolated thunderstorm development. Weak
low-level convergence along the Lee trough axis and orographic
circulations over the higher terrain of eastern nm will aid
thunderstorm development the next few days.

Friday into the Labor Day weekend...southwest flow aloft will
strengthen as an upper trough digs over the Pacific northwest/northern
rockies/Great Basin...advecting the monsoon plume farther east over
the panhandles. It continues to look like some enhanced tropical
moisture may get infused into the monsoon tap during this time as
well. Thus thunderstorm chances will expand over much of the
panhandles over the Holiday weekend. It certainly doesn/T look like a
washout...but diurnal heating acting on the monsoon moisture will
likely lead to isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms
through the Holiday weekend. Models have backed off on the possible
cold front for early next week...with it now looking to struggle to
push this far south and being much weaker if it does so. Thus warm
temperatures look to persist through Labor Day.

Kb

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 90 66 90 67 91 / 5 5 5 5 5
Beaver OK 94 70 95 70 96 / 5 10 5 5 5
Boise City OK 91 65 93 65 93 / 30 30 10 10 20
Borger Texas 94 70 93 71 94 / 5 5 5 5 5
Boys Ranch Texas 94 67 94 68 94 / 10 10 5 5 10
canyon Texas 91 66 91 65 91 / 5 5 5 5 10
Clarendon Texas 92 66 92 67 92 / 0 5 0 0 5
Dalhart Texas 95 65 94 65 94 / 20 20 10 10 20
Guymon OK 94 68 94 68 94 / 10 10 5 10 10
Hereford Texas 91 66 92 67 91 / 10 10 5 5 10
Lipscomb Texas 94 69 93 69 94 / 5 5 0 0 5
Pampa Texas 92 68 92 69 92 / 5 5 0 0 5
Shamrock Texas 93 68 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 5
Wellington Texas 95 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

03/08

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