Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
637 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014
00z taf cycle
drier northwesterly upper flow will prevail tonight and Friday while
a light moist upslope northeast to southeast surface wind around 5 to
10 knots can be expected at all three taf sites through early Friday.
With the drier air aloft and lack of higher clouds and the moist
surface wind and low clouds...some fog will be possible at mainly the
Guymon and Amarillo taf sites after 08z to 10z Friday and then
lifting by 15z to 16z Friday. Current MVFR ceilings at Amarillo will
become VFR by 02z Friday but then MVFR to IFR ceilings developing due
to some low clouds and fog reducing visibilities to around 1 to 3
miles mainly at the Guymon and Amarillo taf sites between 08z to 10z
Friday...and 15z to 16z Friday. VFR conditions will prevail by 18z
Friday. Winds will become southerly around 15 to 20 knots with higher
gusts after 16z Friday.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014/
a surface high will move southward through southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma tonight. Meanwhile a surface trough will develop
to our northwest. This weather pattern will cause the northeast
winds to swing around to the southeast and south through the
night. Low level moisture will be brought into the panhandles on
these upslope winds. The clear skies tonight will help with
radiational cooling...so we are expecting some fog to develop.
The fog should dissipate by middle morning Friday as southwest winds
An upper level trough over Southern California on Friday will move
east through this weekend and it should start to bring some
showers and thunderstorms to our area by early Saturday morning.
The showers and storms will move east of the area by Sunday
evening as the trough moves away from the panhandles.
The models do hint at some possible mountain convection moving this
way Monday afternoon as the atmosphere remains unstable behind the
departing short wave trough. Have not inserted any precipitation chances at
this time as the amount of low level moisture is in question.
Southwest winds will pick up again Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of
another short wave trough moving across the northern rockies
and northern High Plains.
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the Easter weekend. Relative humidity values are expected to remain
above 20 percent. However...winds will be stronger Friday and
Saturday. Another chance of rain is possible Saturday through
Fire weather concerns may again tick up again by the middle part of
next week depending on how much rain we get over the weekend.