Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
649 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
for the 12z tafs...a stationary front across the southern Texas Panhandle will
gradually lift northward today. Low clouds and some br expected at all taf
sites this morning. Kama should be the first taf site to improve...
eventually followed by kdht and kguy. North to northeast winds this
morning will gradually become southeast to S late this afternoon through
tonight. Any thunderstorms that manage to develop should be isolated
and remain east and S of the terminal sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 228 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
stationary front over the southern Texas Panhandle will lift north
as a warm front this afternoon as a surface low tracks from the
southern Texas Panhandle northeast. Will continue with the slight
chance probability of precipitation for the northeast County Warning Area where the best moisture will
combine with the best lift. Low clouds along with some fog will
also be possible north of the warm front this morning.
After today...will leave the forecast dry through Thursday as
upper heights increase when the nose of the upper ridge moves
this way from the east.
By Thursday night the upper ridge will start to break down and
chances of rain will go up. A cold front will move into the
Oklahoma Panhandle by Thursday night which should serve as a
focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
This cold front will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development as it slowly pushes south through the
panhandles Friday into the weekend. Sub tropical moisture will be
brought over the panhandles in a southwest flow aloft and lift
will increase as several upper level disturbances move over the
region Friday through Sunday.
We could see a drying trend by Monday as the upper ridge tries to
move back over the region.
High temperatures will be tricky today as it will be hard to forecast
just when the low clouds will burn off. For now will keep the
"coolest" temperatures across the northwest where the clouds are
expected to break the latest.
High temperatures will also be tricky to forecast once the rain
sets in Friday through the weekend. If some areas remain in the
clouds with rain on one of those days...then highs may not get out
of the 70s...but if sunshine can break through long enough...it
will not be tough for temperatures to rise into the 80s.
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
this week. Winds will get stronger Wednesday and Thursday...but
lowest relative humidity values are expected to remain above 20
percent for the most part. Fuels will remain out of critical
ranges as well.