Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
542 am CST Thursday Dec 25 2014
for the 12z tafs...southwest winds will increase somewhat during the
middle to late morning hours and persist through the late afternoon
before diminishing. A cold front will move across kguy and kdht
between 07z and 09z Friday. It is not expected to move through kama
until after 12z Friday...just beyond this forecast cycle. Periods of middle
and high level clouds are also anticipated.
Previous discussion... /issued 241 am CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/
surface low over the central rockies and surface trough extending
south along the Lee of The Rockies will track east and south today
approaching the Oklahoma and western Texas panhandles by 00z Friday.
A cold front will push southeast across the forecast area tonight and
early Friday. After an unseasonably warm...breezy and dry Christmas
day...Friday will turn sharply colder with chances for snow Friday
into Friday night. A closed upper low will track east out of the
Great Basin region today and across The Four Corners region and
central and southern rockies tonight and Friday. As the upper low
lift quickly northeast into the Central Plains states by Friday
night...a quick shot of snow is expected across mainly the northern
half of the panhandles Friday into Friday evening and then ending
from west to east Friday night. The main longwave trough then tracks
across the panhandles Saturday and Saturday night.
Unseasonably cold conditions Friday and Saturday and then near
seasonablt conditions Sunday and dry before yet another series of
closed upper lows digs south over the southwestern states and
Southern California early next week and then approaches the forecast
area by the middle of next week. A strong cold front pushes through
the panhandles Sunday night and early Monday with a return to sharply
colder conditions and chances for snow to most of the forecast area
early next week.
downsloping 20 foot southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour with higher
gusts across the panhandles today as a surface low over Colorado and
a surface trough extending south long the Lee of The Rockies across
eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico deepens and tracks southeast
towards the panhandles. Unseasonably warm...breezy and dry conditions
today with minimum afternoon relative humidities of 15 to 20 percent
will allow for elevated fire weather conditions across all of the
panhandles except the western Oklahoma Panhandle. 20 foot
southwesterly winds across the western Oklahoma Panhandle are
expected to be less than 15 miles per hour due to the closer proximity to the
surface trough where the gradient will be not as tight.
Also...minimum afternoon relative humidities across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle are expected to remain above 20 percent as
increasing middle and high level moisture ahead of an approaching upper
low entrains into the area from the higher terrain of The Rockies.
Elevated or critical fire weather conditions are not expected across
the panhandles from Friday through at least the middle of next week.