Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
516 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...
an upper level disturbance moving across northern OK early this
morning acting upon a moist air mass /characterized by surface dew points
in the lower 60s/ has maintained an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the OK Panhandle and the northwestern Texas Panhandle. Expect these
showers and thunderstorms to continue to move east into OK this
morning. Clouds should thin later this morning while a surface trough
deepens across eastern nm by the afternoon. Although heights rise
leading to warming middle level temperatures across the Southern Plains today
as the upper ridge expands over the region...southerly low-level flow
will maintain moderately high dewpoints across the area. High-res and
nwp model guidance suggests storms initiating near this surface
trough due to a moderately unstable air mass in place. Storm
development is uncertain though since the warmer temperatures aloft can
effectively cap the region. However will keep a slight chance mention
this afternoon and evening across the area. Expect temperatures to rebound
back into the low to middle 90s although some areas that have received
copious amounts of rainfall may be a few degrees cooler.
Long term...
the extended forecast will be characterized by hot and mainly dry weather
conditions as an upper ridge builds across the plains while an large upper
low moves over the northern rockies toward the end of the week. This
will lead to a change in the weather pattern where the upper flow
transitions to the southwest. This will lead to above normal temperatures
climbing well into the 90s to triple digit readings. Breezy
southerly winds will maintain adequate moisture across the region
as a surface trough deepens over the western High Plains. Despite nwp
models generating quantitative precipitation forecast over the Ama County Warning Area...storm development is
uncertain since capping will most likely will be an issue. However
weak upper lift can be provided by a couple of weak upper
disturbances that will lift across the area which can lead to
isolated storms developing over the western zones. Model guidance
continues to display light quantitative precipitation forecast amounts over the weekend as this
pattern holds although confidence is low in storm development given
the more unfavorable southwest flow aloft. So have maintained non
mentionable probability of precipitation Saturday through the remainder of the extended
period. The upper ridge builds back west over the area next week
which should Nix any precipitation chances. This will also maintain well
above normal temperatures with highs in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees.
Clk
&&
Fire weather...
minimum relative humidities will remain above 20 percent across the
area...precluding elevated and critical fire weather conditions.
Although relative humidity values will fall below 15-20 percent across
the western OK Panhandle Thursday through Saturday and 20 foot
winds increase to around 15 miles per hour...recent rains and subsequent green
up should limit elevated and critical fire weather conditions.
Minimum relative humidities between 15-20 percent are anticipated
across the western Texas/OK panhandles Sunday and into early next week.
However 20 foot winds are generally expected to be under 15 miles per hour...
precluding elevated and critical fire weather conditions.
Clk
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 92 67 93 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
Beaver OK 95 66 101 68 100 / 20 20 10 10 10
Boise City OK 95 63 96 64 95 / 20 20 10 20 20
Borger Texas 94 71 96 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
Boys Ranch Texas 96 68 96 70 98 / 20 20 10 20 10
canyon Texas 93 67 93 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
Clarendon Texas 94 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 10 5 5
Dalhart Texas 95 64 94 63 95 / 20 20 10 20 20
Guymon OK 94 66 98 67 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
Hereford Texas 93 66 92 66 94 / 20 20 10 20 10
Lipscomb Texas 92 69 98 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
Pampa Texas 92 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
Shamrock Texas 91 70 96 70 96 / 20 20 10 5 10
Wellington Texas 94 71 98 71 96 / 20 20 10 5 5
&&
Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.
&&
$$
