Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
638 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
00z taf cycle
an upper trough will push east across the panhandles through tonight.
A cold front will move across the three taf sites by 12z Thursday.
VFR conditions will prevail at the three taf sites through 00z
Friday. Southwest to west winds of 10 to 20 knots with some higher
gusts until about 01z to 03z Thursday will shift to the north around
04z to 06z Thursday at the Dalhart and Guymon taf sites...and then at
the Amarillo taf site by 08z Thursday. North to northeast winds 5 to
15 knots after 06z Thursday will veer around to the south and
southwest after 18z Thursday and increase to around 15 to 25 knots
with higher gusts through 00z Friday.
Previous discussion... /issued 419 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015/
primary focus remains on thunderstorm chances through this
evening...along with fire weather concerns.
Afternoon water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the northern
rockies/southern Canada...with a trailing shortwave trough making its
way into the Pacific northwest/northern California. A surface trough has been deepening
through the day across the plains ahead of the lead system. Attendant
diffuse dryline continues to mix east across the panhandles late this
afternoon...with surface dewpoints ranging from the 20s in the far
western panhandles to the 40s along the OK border. Have seen some cumulus
development along and west of the dryline this afternoon...but it has
remained very flat with only some virga noted...in the presence of
very limited moisture and instability thus far. Could see some
further development across the eastern panhandles where a little better
low-level moisture and resultant instability lingers. However this
already limited moisture will continue to mix out through the
daylight hours...so if any storms develop...they will remain
isolated. Given high local heights/deep sub-cloud layers...strong
winds will be the primary threat from any storms. The hail threat
will be less than yesterday given weaker instability and effective
bulk shear /around 25 kts/...but could see some hail up to quarter
size. Any threat for convection will again end by middle to late evening
as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
The cold front currently draped across NE into northeast Colorado will push
through the area tonight. However it will quickly lift northeast on
Thursday as a warm front as a surface low deepens over far southeast
Colorado...bringing a return of breezy southwest winds to roughly the
southwest half of the panhandles...and attendant fire weather concerns.
Temperatures will take a step back on Thursday...but still remain above
average in the lower 70s northwest to upper 80s southeast.
The aforementioned upper trough now moving on the West Coast will
move east across the central rockies into the Central Plains Thursday
night...pushing a much stronger cold front south through the
area...accompanied by gusty north winds. Could see a few showers
across the northern panhandles late Thursday night. Temperatures cool below
freezing through much of the vertical column...but the near surface
layer appears to remain sufficiently warm to keep any light precipitation as
rain. Friday will be much cooler behind this secondary front with
highs only forecast to reach the 50s and lower 60s. Friday night will
be the coldest night we/ve seen in a while. Low temperatures are expected to
fall into the 30s as a 1025-1030 mb surface high settles over the
area...with a frost or freeze very possible for much of the
Temperatures will quickly rebound over the weekend and stay warm into
early next week as quasi-zonal flow aloft eventually backs to
southwesterly ahead of the next western trough. Any precipitation will
remain south and east of the area through this time. Next potential
precipitation chance could come around middle next week...but much uncertainty
exists with the evolution of the responsible upper trough.
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue across the
panhandles through early this evening. A weak cold front will push
through tonight...shifting winds to the north. This front will
retreat northeast on Thursday as a surface low deepens over far
southeast Colorado...bringing a return of breezy southwest winds to
roughly the southwest half of the panhandles. Elevated to critical
fire weather conditions will develop over this part of the area again
on Thursday as minimum relative humidities fall to 8 to 15 percent. A
much stronger cold front will move through Thursday night...bringing
an abrupt shift to stronger northerly winds. Cooler temperatures on
Friday will keep minimum relative humidity values above 25
percent...alleviating fire weather concerns for a day. However this
break looks to be short-lived...as warm/dry/breezy conditions return
over the weekend into early next week.
Texas...red flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
OK...red flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following