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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
305 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Discussion...
an upper trough will continue to swing eastward across the Great
Basin through tonight. An upper level low will develop in the
base of this trough and it will get cutoff from the parent trough
as it moves into New Mexico by middle day Sunday. This upper low
is expected to then slowly move east along or just south of the
Interstate 40 corridor and then into southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday
night.

The panhandles stand to receive a decent shot of rain from this
upper level storm system Sunday afternoon through Monday night.
On Sunday afternoon...a back door cold front will be stretched
from the western Oklahoma Panhandle to the southeast Texas
Panhandle. As moisture and upper level lift and instability move
across this front...thunderstorms are expected to develop. A
deepening surface low over northeast New Mexico will also help
to provide increasing upslope flow into these developing storms.
Some of the storms may be severe Sunday afternoon as they travel
along the boundary. Heavy rain will also be a concern with this
upper storm system as it moves across. Upper level diffluence
will increase and we will see thicknesses diverge across US...
especially over the northeast half of the area.

The northern panhandles should be to the left of the upper low
track which will put this area in the best chance of rain
Monday. The rain will slowly shift south as the upper low moves
east of the area Monday night.

There may be some light lingering showers...especially in the east on
Tuesday.

The forecast will remain dry Wednesday through early next week
as an upper level ridge builds into the plains. Temperatures will
also warm through the end of the week.

&&

Hydrology...
rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with some isolated areas of 3 inches
will be possible mainly across the central and eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle. Some of the rivers...
mainly in the eastern Texas Panhandle may have significant rises due
to the heavy rain. Also...if heavy rain develops over Wheeler...
Roberts...gray and Hemphill counties...then we could see some
flooding issues given that these areas had heavy rain just a week
and a half ago.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 50 77 48 55 40 / 5 30 50 50 40
Beaver OK 52 64 47 49 41 / 20 70 70 80 50
Boise City OK 46 65 44 44 37 / 20 70 80 80 40
Borger Texas 51 77 49 53 42 / 5 50 70 60 40
Boys Ranch Texas 49 78 48 54 41 / 5 30 60 60 40
canyon Texas 50 78 47 57 40 / 5 30 50 50 40
Clarendon Texas 53 81 52 59 43 / 5 30 50 60 50
Dalhart Texas 47 73 46 48 39 / 20 40 70 70 30
Guymon OK 50 64 47 47 40 / 20 70 80 80 40
Hereford Texas 49 76 45 56 40 / 5 30 40 40 40
Lipscomb Texas 52 68 49 49 43 / 20 70 70 80 50
Pampa Texas 50 74 49 53 41 / 5 40 70 60 40
Shamrock Texas 51 79 53 59 45 / 5 30 50 70 50
Wellington Texas 52 83 55 62 46 / 5 30 50 70 50

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

06/15

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