Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1129 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014
18z tafs...not much change to going VFR forecast. Some middle level
clouds to push into the region. Otherwise...winds will remain
northwesterly and less than 15 knots at kama...kdht and kguy. A weak
cold front is still slated to move into the panhandles between 02z
and 06z tonight which will shift the winds to a more northerly
direction...but continuing at less than 15 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014/
middle-level clouds in northwest flow aloft will be overhead today...and
will pose no threat to aviation. Westerly surface winds mainly in
the 10 to 15 knots range this morning may briefly gust above 20 knots
between 14z and 18z today. Weak cold front will cause surface winds
to shift to the north and increase slightly this evening. No
visibility restrictions expected. VFR forecast continues next 24
Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014/
very light radar echoes over the northwestern Texas Panhandle at
this time may depict flurries/very light snow showers. However...no
meaningful precipitation is expected all indications suggest this
activity will dissipate by sunrise leaving partly cloudy skies.
Otherwise...benign weather is anticipated this week.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft is expected to persist this week. A weak
positively tilted shortwave trough will progress through this flow
over West Texas late tonight/early Tuesday but no more than
scattered passing clouds are currently indicated...although can not
rule out additional flurries/light showers has seen tonight. In
general...however...heights/thicknesses will be on the increase this
week as the pattern Ushers in several weak fronts of mild Pacific
origins. This will yield a gradual warm up toward 10+ degrees above
seasonal average temperatures by the end of the work week.
Medium range guidance continues to be inconsistent in handling
potential for the next notable cold front...and this introduces some
uncertainty for temperatures this weekend. The strongest signal is now
indicated by the GFS with a similar trend in the most recent European model (ecmwf) for
an intrusion of cold air over the central/Southern Plains by late
Saturday and/or Sunday. These trends will be monitored.