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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1220 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

06z taf cycle
the remnants of Hurricane Odile are expected to lift north and east
towards the panhandles today through Saturday. VFR conditions will
become MVFR and possibly IFR at times after 10z to 15z today at the
Amarillo and Dalhart taf sites...and expected to remain VFR at the
Guymon taf site. Rain showers should also spread into the Amarillo
and Dalhart taf sites after 16z to 20z today. South to southeast
winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 10 to 20 knots after 15z
to 16z today...and then diminish again to 5 to 15 knots after 00z to
02z Saturday.



Previous discussion... /issued 1110 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

with the bulk of the rain well south of the Ama County Warning Area...went ahead and
lowered probability of precipitation overnight...although still maintained a slight mention
of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Texas Panhandle. Latest
water vapor satellite imagery shows quite a bit of dry air over the
OK and northern Texas Panhandle. Have decreased sky cover over this area
to account for this dry air as it will take a while for low clouds to
fill in as the remains of Odile lift northeast. Also lowered low
temperatures a degree or two. Updated products have been sent.


Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

for the 00z tafs...VFR conditions should persist for the next few
hours at all taf sites. Then low clouds are expected to develop
again...with MVFR ceilings likely to develop at kama and kdht by
around 03z and IFR ceilings by 06z to 07z. While low clouds are also
possible at kguy...have only included a scattered deck at 1500 feet due
to low confidence in MVFR or lower ceilings developing there. Br also
likely to reduce visbys at kama and kdht tonight. Rain showers likely to
impact kama and kdht Friday...though confidence on if and when kdht
will be impacted is too low to include mention in tafs right now.
Amendments will likely be needed as ceilings develop tonight.


Previous discussion... /issued 403 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/

well the panhandles have been on the outside looking in today as
far as rain with the bulk of the heavy rainfall remaining south of
the forecast area. This will all change...slowly but surely...but
likely only for the southern half of the Texas panhandles.

Quite a bit of dry air is evident on water vapor satellite today
which can explain the bulk of the rain remaining mostly south of the
forecast area. For tonight...think this dry air will keep a lot of the
area just that...dry. A few scattered showers with a rumble of
thunder or two will still be possible across the far southern Texas

Friday through Saturday...plenty of moisture from the remnants of
Odile will still remain across the region pushing that above
mentioned dry air slightly more northward. There will be a very very
very fine line as to who gets the heavy rainfall. So decided to go
ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch since the past two weekends have
seen heavy rainfall...and the threat for 1 to 2 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts is still there. Really think the main heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat will be across the southern Texas
Panhandle...especially the southeast Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately...the
Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles could remain mostly dry
through Saturday. So with that chances of rainfall will
remain south of the Canadian river during the next 48 hours.

Sunday...scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility
across the entire area although widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected. In fact...Monday through the middle of next week will have
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with the best chances
for rain remaining across the eastern panhandles. High temperatures
will be near normal in the 70s and lower 80s.



Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...gray...Oldham...





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