Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1052 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014
light north to northeast surface winds will persist through the night...and
then trend to east and southeast after sunrise. No overnight
visibility restrictions expected. By early afternoon...surface winds
should veer to southeast...and increase into the 12 to 15 knots range.
No clouds expected until late in the taf period...when thickening cirrus
moves in from the west. VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 613 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/
VFR conditions will continue for at least the next 24 hours. An
expansive area of high pressure at the surface will move
southeastward across the Midwest through the forecast period. This
will cause winds to gradually veer from a northeasterly direction at
the time of taf issuance to easterly by morning and eventually
southeasterly tomorrow afternoon. Wind speeds should generally remain
under 10 knots...but on the western edge of this high the pressure
gradient may be strong enough for 12-15 knot winds tomorrow
afternoon...especially at kdht and kguy. Otherwise...high thin cirrus
will gradually overspread the region late tomorrow ahead of an
eastward moving trough near the West Coast.
Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/
Discussion...tonight through Wednesday
Just a few changes were needed to the forecast. Found it odd that
the model guidance thinks our coldest morning of the fall will be
Saturday morning while winds are blowing at 10-25 miles per hour from the
south. On that issue...remained several degrees above guidance
consensus. Otherwise...the Thorn in our side continues to remain the
upper air pattern next week as models are confused with what to do
with a digging western trough and a dying epac tropical system. The
European model (ecmwf) has trended toward the GFS/Gem idea of a more progressive
pattern early next week and this forecast continues to reflect that
thinking. Did increase precipitation chances for mainly the southeast half of the
panhandles Monday/Monday night as consensus grows for better chances for
showers and a few rumbles of thunder in this period.
Temps-wise...highs will fluctuate from the upper 50s to low 70s with
current indications that tomorrow and Tuesday will be the coolest days.
Lows should generally remain above freezing though a few places will
likely tap 32 briefly at some point over the next week (tonight, Friday
night, and Tuesday night look to be the coolest nights).