Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
557 am CST sun Dec 8 2013
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
IFR and MVFR ceilings can be expected at all three taf terminals
through roughly 17z with improvements likely seen at kguy and kdht
before kama. Ceilings between 500 to 1200 feet will eventually scatter
out after 17z with strong southwesterly winds with gusts up to
30-35kts expected. A cold front will push through the panhandles just
before 00z veering winds to a more northerly direction with the gusts
subsiding a couple of hours after 00z.
Discussion... /issued 306 am CST sun Dec 8 2013/
Today is the big day to see if the models can earn their keep. Models
for days have been forecasting that the Arctic air would dislodge in
a big way today. We have been a little concerned with the possible
warm up as the models tend to erode the cold air too quickly. The
models want to have the clearing line at lest halfway through the County Warning Area
by sunrise. We have not gone that aggressive with the clearing so we
do not really clear things out until early this afternoon. If the
clouds do clear even by middle day and the southwest winds develop like
the models say...then their temperatures in 40s look fairly good. The
only area that will not see as strong of a warm up today will be in
the far northwest where winds will be switching around the northwest
behind the surface low which is expected to move from west to east
across the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Winds are
expected to be in the 20 to 30 miles per hour range with higher gusts. Do not
think that we will reach Wind Advisory criteria due to the limited
Next Arctic cold front moves in by late afternoon. Low clouds and
possibly some light snow will develop behind the front on Monday.
For now have added some slight chances of snow showers to areas
mainly north of the Canadian river closest to the best lift. Again...
it will not be tough for this cold air mass to wring out flurries
just about anywhere.
The air mass modifies somewhat on Tuesday...but another cold front
brings high temperatures back down into the 20s and 30s for
The flow aloft will shift from northwest to more zonal by Thursday
which may open the door for a couple of dry upper level short wave
troughs to move across through the middle part of next weekend.
Temperatures will also warm up after Wednesday back to near or just
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
early next week. Strong southwest to west winds are expected today...
but the lowest afternoon relative humidity will be above 20 percent.
Arctic moves back in by late this afternoon and early this
evening on northerly winds.