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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
410 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Short term...
the change to wetter and cooler weather is well underway today.
Stronger convection that moved across the area this morning has
pushed well east of the area...leaving the atmosphere across the area
worked over. Abundant cloud cover has limited temperatures from climbing
much out of the 70s this afternoon. Given these parameters...convective
inhibition has increased over the area and thus expect a general
downtrend in convection during the remainder of the afternoon through
early evening...outside of the light showers currently moving across
the northern Texas Panhandle. However an upper level shortwave trough
will dive southeast along the eastern periphery of the upper level
ridge currently over The Four Corners region. Nwp model guidance
suggests a cluster of storms developing over eastern New Mexico and
moving into the area tonight. Moist upslope low-level flow and
monsoonal moisture above the surface will bring the risk for
heavy rainfall with these storms. Decided to hold off on issuing a
Flash Flood Watch for late tonight and Tuesday as the convection
that moved through earlier today produced spotty rainfall amounts of
0.50-1.50 inches while there was a good period of dry weather leading
up to todays rainfall.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue Tuesday morning and much
like today...with a lull in coverage by the afternoon. However since a
continued fetch of abundant low level moisture will remain in place
over the area...will maintain a chance of storms over the area.
Should see in increase in showers and thunderstorms toward late
Tuesday evening as a stronger shortwave trough slides southeast
across the Central Plains. Models continue to generate an mesoscale convective system with
this upper wave where it will slide over the eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northeastern Texas Panhandle before heading into
Oklahoma early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is very likely with this
complex of storms and a Flash Flood Watch very well may be needed.
Abundant cloud cover and anticipated precipitation will hold high
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Long term...
the upper wave will push a cold front through the area
Wednesday...although moist upslope Post frontal surface flow will
help to generate another round of showers and thunderstorms. However
the convective potential may be lowered as rain cooled air and thick
cloud cover will limit highs in the 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence
in the development of showers and thunderstorms lowers toward the end
of the week as while the area will remain in northwest flow aloft
late in the week...surface ridging suggests a drying trend across the
area. However a weak upper disturbance will trigger showers and
thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico and light northwest upper flow
will allow these storms to move into the western Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles Friday and Saturday. The upper flow will veer out of the
north by Sunday...keeping any convection developing over the higher
terrain to our west. Below normal temperatures /with highs generally
in the 80s/ will continue this weekend and early next week given the
westward placement of the upper ridge.

Clk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 61 82 66 81 59 / 50 50 50 40 40
Beaver OK 63 82 64 75 59 / 50 40 80 80 50
Boise City OK 62 84 60 75 57 / 50 60 70 60 50
Borger Texas 65 83 69 79 62 / 50 50 60 50 50
Boys Ranch Texas 65 84 69 81 62 / 50 50 50 40 40
canyon Texas 61 83 66 84 61 / 50 40 50 40 40
Clarendon Texas 64 82 65 83 60 / 50 40 50 40 40
Dalhart Texas 62 83 64 76 58 / 50 50 60 50 40
Guymon OK 63 80 62 75 59 / 50 50 80 70 50
Hereford Texas 62 82 65 82 60 / 50 40 40 40 30
Lipscomb Texas 64 81 62 78 60 / 40 40 70 80 50
Pampa Texas 62 79 66 78 59 / 50 50 60 50 40
Shamrock Texas 64 80 63 81 62 / 40 40 60 50 40
Wellington Texas 64 84 65 85 63 / 40 40 50 40 40

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

11/05

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