Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1041 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
06z taf cycle
a cold front will push through the Guymon taf site around 08z to 12z
Sunday...and then across the Dalhart taf site between 10z and 14z
Sunday...and then at the Amarillo taf site between 12z and 16z
Sunday. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will become east to
northeast following the passage of the cold front 15 to 25 knots with
higher gusts. VFR conditions will become MVFR to IFR and possibly
even LIFR shortly after the passage of the front. Kept the Amarillo
taf site VFR until around 00z or so Monday due to lower
confidence...however these lower ceilings and visibilities could
impact the Amarillo taf site as well after 14z to 18z Sunday or
sooner depending on the timing of the passage of the front.
Convection is expected to develop after 19z to 21z Sunday and
continue through the end of the taf forecast period at the Guymon and
Dalhart taf sites...with the convection affecting the Amarillo taf
site after 23z Sunday to 01z Monday through 06z Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
00z taf cycle
an upper low will approach the three taf sites from the west Sunday
and Sunday night...a cold front will push south and west across the
Guymon taf site around 01z to 05z Sunday and across the Amarillo and
Dalhart taf sites between 06z and 12z Sunday. The cold front is
expected to stall just south and west of the Texas Panhandle Sunday
and Sunday evening. VFR conditions expected with MVFR conditions at
the Guymon taf site after 10z to 12z Sunday. Winds ahead of the cold
front will be from the south and southwest 10 to 20 knots with some
occasional higher gusts...then shifting to the east and southeast
following the passage of the front increasing to around 15 to 25
knots with higher gusts. Convection possible mainly at the Guymon
and Dalhart taf sites after 18z to 20z Sunday...will mention thunderstorms in the vicinity
remark for now since this is during the last 6 hours of the taf
Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
an upper trough will continue to swing eastward across the Great
Basin through tonight. An upper level low will develop in the
base of this trough and it will get cutoff from the parent trough
as it moves into New Mexico by middle day Sunday. This upper low
is expected to then slowly move east along or just south of the
Interstate 40 corridor and then into southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday
The panhandles stand to receive a decent shot of rain from this
upper level storm system Sunday afternoon through Monday night.
On Sunday afternoon...a back door cold front will be stretched
from the western Oklahoma Panhandle to the southeast Texas
Panhandle. As moisture and upper level lift and instability move
across this front...thunderstorms are expected to develop. A
deepening surface low over northeast New Mexico will also help
to provide increasing upslope flow into these developing storms.
Some of the storms may be severe Sunday afternoon as they travel
along the boundary. Heavy rain will also be a concern with this
upper storm system as it moves across. Upper level diffluence
will increase and we will see thicknesses diverge across US...
especially over the northeast half of the area.
The northern panhandles should be to the left of the upper low
track which will put this area in the best chance of rain
Monday. The rain will slowly shift south as the upper low moves
east of the area Monday night.
There may be some light lingering showers...especially in the east on
The forecast will remain dry Wednesday through early next week
as an upper level ridge builds into the plains. Temperatures will
also warm through the end of the week.
rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with some isolated areas of 3 inches
will be possible mainly across the central and eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle. Some of the rivers...
mainly in the eastern Texas Panhandle may have significant rises due
to the heavy rain. Also...if heavy rain develops over Wheeler...
Roberts...gray and Hemphill counties...then we could see some
flooding issues given that these areas had heavy rain just a week
and a half ago.