Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
614 am CDT sun Mar 9 2014
12z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through the period under
predominantly clear skies. A weak Lee surface trough will keep winds
out of the west/southwest around 10 kts.
Previous discussion... /issued 152 am CST sun Mar 9 2014/
a new Lee-side trough will deepen today which will encourage
downslope surface flow...so expect temperatures to warm above
normal today. Temperatures should be even warmer on Monday as 850 mb
temperatures increase and good mixing combines with downslope winds.
An upper level short wave trough will move through the West Coast
ridge and then southeast toward the panhandles by Tuesday.
Thicknesses crash behind a fast moving maritime polar cold front
Tuesday afternoon. The pressure gradient will be fairly tight behind
this cold front as it plows through the panhandles on Tuesday. We may
need to hoist a Wind Advisory for much of the area if the latest
models pan out. Winds then should slowly decrease Tuesday evening.
Some rain or snow will still be possible with this system Tuesday
night...but it is looking like it is waning at this point.
Temperatures start to warm back up on Thursday as most of
this system departs. Part of the short wave trough actually drifts
back off to northern Arizona by Wednesday night and then this
piece is expected to move east across the panhandles Thursday night.
At this time it looks like this system will be moisture starved...so
will leave probability of precipitation out of the forecast.
Another windy system may move in from the north by next Saturday
night. This system also looks like it does not have much moisture
to work with.
lowest relative humidity values will get down below 20 percent across
much of the area today...but winds will remain below 20 miles per hour. Elevated
fire weather conditions may be possible across much of the panhandles
on Monday. Lowest afternoon relative humidity values will be below 20
percent and winds will increase some. Elevated to marginally critical
fire weather conditions will be possible on Tuesday just ahead and
just behind a strong cold front across the southern Texas Panhandle.