Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
659 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
12z taf cycle
although some patchy fog at the Dalhart taf site as of 12z
today...this fog will quickly lift shortly. Therefore...will forecast
VFR conditions through 12z Wednesday. South and southwest winds will
increase to around 15 to 25 knots with some occasional higher gusts
after 15z today and then diminish to around 5 to 15 knots after 00z
to 02z Wednesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014/
upper low is still spinning its way across the northern plains and
in response the associated surface Lee side trough looks to move a
bit further east today. Have kept the slight chance probability of precipitation in the
eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle today into tonight due to this.
Slight chance for afternoon convection due to diurnal heating will be
aided by cape values of 500-1500 j/kg, 35 kts of shear across parts
of the area, and weak synoptic ascent by the shortwave trough. That
being said the overall severe threat looks low and would be most
concerned with quick heavy rainfall if storms do form. Chances
continue overnight in the far east/northeast County Warning Area as storms forming
in Kansas might be able to reach back into the panhandles with
better upper level support from the shortwave trough.
A little better scenario for showers/thunderstorms sets up on
Wednesday. Surface trough still wants to stick around and could be
the focus for convection on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Cape of at
or just above 1000 j/kg combined with moderate deep layer shear and
steeper lapse rates favor pulse type storms if they area able to
form. Any storms that do form could be strong to marginally severe.
This is where models start to diverge on their solutions through the
rest of the forecast period. All models are showing a retrograding
weak upper low for the second half of the week. However they are not
in great agreement with how far south and west to take its energy.
At this time have retained low end probability of precipitation through Thursday evening.
Looking at the weekend into early next week the models are also in
disagreement with what to do with low/trough moving onshore on the
West Coast. Depending on the actual track of the system it could
bring rain chances to the panhandles late in the weekend into the
early parts of next week. Will take a wait and see approach at this
time in hopes models come into better alignment with each other.
As far as temperatures go...they should remain relatively consistent
day-to-day with high temperatures near normal through the week into the