Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
257 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
an upper level ridge over the High Plains from Texas into southern
Canada Thursday morning will shift off to the east and will be lined
up just east of the High Plains by Thursday evening. The ridge
axis will then continue to be found lined from south to north along
Interstate 35 from Friday through early next week. The ridge will
start to break down by Tuesday as a short wave trough moves into the
southwest U.S. This short wave will then move across the panhandles
on Thursday.
This means that the panhandles will remain in southwest flow aloft
between the ridge axis to our east and a trough to our northwest
from Thursday afternoon through much of this forecast. This
will bring an active period of weather to our area at least
through Memorial Day as moisture is brought northward on the
west side of the ridge and then brought across the panhandles
in the southwest flow aloft. However...the devil will be in the
surface details through much of this forecast.
First...a cold front is expected to backdoor into the
panhandles tonight. This front is expected to pull up stationary
across the southern Texas Panhandle by Thursday afternoon.
Thunderstorms...some severe will likely develop along this
stationary boundary. The big question is where will this
boundary be when convection initiates Thursday afternoon. The
models are not clear on just exactly where the boundary will be
by Thursday afternoon. For now will go with the best chance of
thunderstorms across the south central and southeast Texas Panhandle
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The main severe weather
threat with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two will also be possible as these storms interact with
the boundary. Heavy rain will also be a concern as plenty of Gulf
moisture will be brought northward to add to the fuel. These storms
will also not be moving very fast.
Friday...Saturday and Sunday...thunderstorms will again be
possible across the panhandles...with the best chance across
the western areas near the dryline which will be in eastern New
Mexico/far western panhandles each afternoon.
By Memorial Day...the dryline may move into the eastern panhandles
by the afternoon...so the better chance of storms will be in these
areas.
Will leave the forecast dry for now beyond Monday night as the flow
aloft may become strong enough to help edge the dryline east of our
area.
&&
Fire weather...
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
given the chances of rain in this forecast.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 57 83 60 81 60 / 10 50 30 30 30
Beaver OK 54 75 59 84 63 / 10 20 20 20 20
Boise City OK 49 73 58 82 59 / 10 20 20 20 30
Borger Texas 58 80 59 83 64 / 10 30 30 30 20
Boys Ranch Texas 56 87 64 87 63 / 10 30 30 30 30
canyon Texas 57 86 61 84 61 / 10 50 30 30 30
Clarendon Texas 61 83 64 80 63 / 10 50 40 30 20
Dalhart Texas 51 82 58 83 59 / 10 30 20 30 30
Guymon OK 51 78 59 81 63 / 10 20 20 20 20
Hereford Texas 57 90 61 84 59 / 10 30 30 40 30
Lipscomb Texas 56 76 61 80 65 / 10 20 30 20 20
Pampa Texas 57 77 58 79 61 / 10 30 30 20 20
Shamrock Texas 56 81 61 79 65 / 10 50 40 20 20
Wellington Texas 58 87 64 81 64 / 10 50 50 20 20
&&
Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.
&&
$$
09/15
