Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
510 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Aviation... /for the 12z tafs/
IFR to LIFR conditions will continue early this morning and then
gradually improve later this morning. Low stratus and fog will
erode as winds veer around to the west and eventually northwest. VFR
conditions should return shortly thereafter and persist into the
night. There is low confidence on the possibility of patchy fog
forming early tomorrow morning due to light winds and moist ground.
Will reevaluate this and include in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases.



Previous discussion... /issued 240 am CST Monday Nov 30 2015/

upper level low over Wyoming will move to the Great Lakes by
Wednesday. Upper level flow over the panhandles will become more
westerly today and then more northwesterly by Tuesday night. The
westerly flow aloft will encourage a surface trough to traverse the
panhandles today. Low clouds and fog should clear out behind the
surface trough from west to east. Before the trough moves through we
may still have a bout of dense we will watch this to see if
we need to issue an advisory.

We should see a slow warm up as the upper level low pulls away from
our area. Below normal temperatures today will gradually warm to
climatology or just above by Thursday.

Another upper level low pressure system moves this way from west on
Saturday and then if moves across the region on Sunday. Some snow
will be possible with this system. Have lowered high temperatures
some on Sunday given the possibility of the snow. At this time it
appears that the northwest County Warning Area may have the best chance of snow.


Ama watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations