Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
644 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

12z tafs...north winds will quickly increase this morning behind a
cold front...with gusts approaching 40 kts. Confidence in gusts
hitting 40 kts at kama is not quite high enough to issue an aviation
weather warning...but it will be close from middle morning through early
afternoon...and trends will be monitored closely. Some MVFR ceilings will
pivot southeast this morning around an upper-level low...with some
showers expected to impact kguy and possibly clip kdht. These showers
will push east by mid-afternoon...with VFR conditions returning.
Winds will start to diminish late this afternoon...then quickly drop
off around sunset as surface high pressure settles in.



Previous discussion... /issued 436 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015/

isolated convection across the eastern parts of the panhandles this
morning will move east out of the forecast area. A strong cold front
will move through the panhandles this morning bringing unseasonably
cooler conditions today and Monday along with strong northerly winds
to most of the forecast area today. Issued a Wind Advisory for mainly
the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle...and the northwest Texas
Panhandle as winds of 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts near 45 miles per hour possible
mainly by middle to late morning and should last until around early to
middle afternoon before wind speeds begin diminishing. Will issue the
Wind Advisory though until about 23z today but could be cancelled
earlier by 21z today. A surface ridge will build over the forecast
area tonight and Monday. The western portion of the cold front over
northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado pushes eastward into the
extreme northwest part of the forecast area as an upper trough
approaches the panhandles from the central rockies. Some convection
over the higher terrain of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
propagates into the extreme northwestern portions of the forecast
area Monday afternoon. Front continues to back up east into the
panhandles Monday allowing for convection to spread over most of the
forecast area.

Another surge of much cooler air out of Canada Wednesday backdoors
into the panhandles allowing for unseasonably cool conditions once
again Thursday and Friday. Shortwave ridging Thursday into early
Friday with a closed upper low approaching from The Four Corners
region and the central and southern rockies by late this week.
Chances for convection middle to late week over much of the forecast
area...especially the eastern half or third...during the latter half
of this week.



Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Sherman.

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Cimarron...Texas.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations