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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
636 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Aviation...
wind shift associated with incoming cold front has passed through
northwest corner of forecast area...with shift to northerly surface
wind expected by 13z today at kguy. Atmosphere is very moist...with
further increase in low- and middle-level moisture expected today and
tonight. Shortwave trough will induce vorticity maxima which will
provide large-scale ascent to promote thunderstorm development today
and tonight...particularly along and near cold front which is
expected to pass through kama around 22z today. North northeast
surface winds expected to gust into the 25 to 30 knots range following
frontal passage...with potential for thunderstorms continuing this
evening and tonight. MVFR or lower ceilings expected to develop this
evening and overnight as cool and moist surface ridge builds
southward into the area.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 451 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/

Discussion...
breezy southerly winds continue to advect higher dewpoints across the
area this morning...with most locations in the middle 60s. A fairly
strong cold front for this time of year continues its southerly track
towards the panhandles. Still even at this short range...some
distinct differences in the southward progress of the cold front
remains between the models...giving the short term portions of the
forecast a fair amount of uncertainty. Appears the front will move
freely through the western portions of the panhandles during the day
today...but the models diverge quite a bit in the southward progress
over the eastern Texas Panhandle. The frontal position and associated
convergence will play a major role in how the precipitation pattern
sets up this afternoon and evening. Regardless of the final
location...precipitable water values of 1.75-2+ inches are expected over the
eastern panhandles Monday night and into Tuesday so feel pretty
confident in including those far southeastern counties in the Flash
Flood Watch this afternoon through Tuesday. Questions start arising
for the westward extent of the watch and the temporal extent...and
will pass these concerns along for the next shift to consider as
frontal progress becomes more apparent. Heavy rainfall definitely
appears to the main hazard with this system. The potential for some
strong to severe storms will also depend greatly on the front. Shear
values are not particularly impressive...30 to 40kts at most but
are positioned further north across the Oklahoma and northern Texas
Panhandle. This area is expected to be behind the main forcing at the
surface and in an area of less available instability. Areas further
south should be able to realize some fairly decent instability later
this afternoon with ample moisture and warm temperatures expected
before the front passes. Some upper level support arrives tonight and
remains through Wednesday in the form of the ridge retreating
southward and flow turning more westerly...which will also help keep
the possibility for showers and thunderstorms to persist through the
overnight hours.

Beyond this frontal system...the panhandles remain in westerly flow
through Thursday when an upper level ridge starts to build northward
across Mexico and Texas. Have kept slight chance to chance probability of precipitation
during this time and attempted to narrow down the most likely
locations and times...but with weak westerly flow...shortwave
activity will likely drive those factors and will be better resolved
as the week progresses. The ridge looks to continue building and
should keep the area mostly dry Friday and through the weekend.

Elsenheimer

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 87 62 73 60 81 / 70 90 40 20 20
Beaver OK 88 63 79 59 82 / 60 50 30 10 20
Boise City OK 81 58 76 58 84 / 60 40 20 10 30
Borger Texas 90 64 75 61 83 / 60 80 40 20 20
Boys Ranch Texas 89 62 76 60 86 / 70 70 30 20 20
canyon Texas 88 62 73 59 82 / 70 90 40 20 20
Clarendon Texas 91 65 74 61 82 / 50 100 60 30 20
Dalhart Texas 85 61 77 59 86 / 60 60 20 20 30
Guymon OK 85 62 78 59 84 / 60 40 20 10 20
Hereford Texas 90 63 74 60 83 / 70 70 40 20 20
Lipscomb Texas 90 64 76 60 81 / 70 80 60 20 20
Pampa Texas 88 61 71 59 80 / 60 80 50 20 20
Shamrock Texas 92 66 74 62 82 / 50 90 70 40 30
Wellington Texas 94 68 75 64 83 / 40 90 70 50 30

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
Collingsworth...Donley...gray...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
Potter...Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...none.

&&

$$

03/18

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