Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
608 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014
for the 12z tafs...isolated showers/thunderstorms around the area.
They have a chance to impact kdht/kama in the next few hours, but
will leave mention out at this time as current radar trends suggest
they will miss the terminals. MVFR ceilings are present at kama/kdht
and should remain that way through morning hours. Some
showers/thunderstorms may try and move in from New Mexico later
today, best chances to impact kdht, but will leave mention out of tafs at
this point since chances are low. Winds will pick up during the day
before dying off after sunset.
Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/
light showers that were moving off to our west/northwest look to
double back around and have a chance to invade the western Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles this morning. If these storms are able to hold
together the western and northern panhandles have a chance to pick up
a little precipitation since they missed out on it yesterday. Low clouds
are currently over the southern Texas Panhandle and those should
continue through sunrise. At this point think low clouds could stick
around through the morning hours till noonish. Depending on how long
the clouds stick around will affect temperatures across the southern Texas
Panhandle and at this point have the southwest only reaching the
lower 70s while places in the Oklahoma Panhandle should reach near
In response to a surface trough that should set up in northeast New
Mexico there is a chance that storms could form up that way and make
a run towards the panhandles. But as the story has been with storms
this time of year the instability should be relatively limited and
should prohibit any of the storms from becoming severe. On Tuesday
another slight chance for evening showers and thunderstorms in the
northeast near the surface trough, but at this time think the best
chances will be up into Kansas and the main body of Oklahoma.
Wednesday looks to be most Peoples best chances to see showers and
thunderstorms this upcoming week. If storms do form they have a
chance of becoming strong to severe with cape values of 1000-1500
j/kg and deep layer shear on the average of 20-30 kts across the
area. These storms should be mainly diurnally driven so any storms
that do form should only last into the early night time hours.
Things get a bit interesting in the long term... most models are in
agreement of cutting off the upper level low across the northern
plains towards the Great Lakes and start to retrograde it back
southwest towards the area. This could bring chances for rain
towards the end of the week into the weekend but at this point will
take a wait and see approach with a out of the Ordinary situation
like this. After the weekend into next week models bring in a deeper
low and with it a chance of rain just beyond this forecast period.
neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are expected
through the middle of this week.