Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
330 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Discussion...
no major changes have been made to the forecast. One more warm day
on Wednesday before effects of Wednesday afternoon cold front bring
maxima back to values near climatology on Thursday. Notably cooler
conditions expected Friday through Sunday with daily maxima mostly
in the 30s.

Dry conditions prevail through Thursday evening...with clouds and
isentropic lift increasing thereafter through Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile...deep moisture is set in an upward motion as southwest
middle- and upper-level flow becomes more divergent and energized. Have
continued with hefty probability of precipitation Friday through Saturday...with low probability of precipitation
Saturday night. Passage of middle-level trough keeps later periods dry.

Have made slight adjustments to precipitation type forecast.
Southeastern sections still look to remain all liquid through
Saturday...but have added possibility of snow for Saturday night.
Northwestern sections still look to be all snow by Friday
afternoon...but have brought all snow into southwestern Texas
Panhandle Friday night and Saturday. Still remains difficult to
pin down large swath encompassing remaining sections...but have
brought transition to all snow through western half of forecast
area Saturday night. Current snowfall totals of one to four inches
are forecast northwest of a line from Hereford to Borger to Beaver.
Further refinements will be made as system becomes better sampled
by upper air network.

Cockrell

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 42 71 36 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 10
Beaver OK 37 74 35 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 5
Boise City OK 39 67 33 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 5
Borger Texas 45 73 39 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 5
Boys Ranch Texas 41 71 33 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
canyon Texas 41 71 36 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
Clarendon Texas 44 74 39 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dalhart Texas 34 69 32 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
Guymon OK 37 72 35 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
Hereford Texas 42 71 35 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
Lipscomb Texas 41 73 38 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
Pampa Texas 40 70 35 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 5
Shamrock Texas 41 75 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 5
Wellington Texas 42 78 40 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

18/03

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations