Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
605 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015
12z tafs...generally poor flying conditions expected to persist
through the next 24 hours. IFR to MVFR conditions can be expected
initially this morning as occasional light snow and fog impact the
terminals...with LIFR ceilings possible at kama. Snow chances will wane
by middle to late morning /although occasional flurries will remain
possible into this afternoon/...and ceilings are expected to settle into
the low MVFR to IFR range...likely hovering right around 1 kft above ground level
through early this evening. Ceilings will then lower to IFR and possibly
LIFR levels around 02-03z this evening as the near surface layer
moistens. Br/fzfg also expected to develop...with deeper low-level
moisture supporting a greater threat of -fzdz at kguy. Expect these
IFR to potentially LIFR conditions to continue through 12z Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/
strong jet streak in the upper levels will provide large-scale lift
across northern sections this morning. Fairly strong isentropic
lift expected to continue this morning over northeastern sections.
With echoes continuing at this time...will keep Winter Weather
Advisory going through noon across northern sections...where an
additional one to two inches of snow are expected.
This afternoon...development of warm layer aloft commences...
causing considerable uncertainty regarding precipitation type.
Light freezing or light freezing drizzle will become increasingly
more likely...but have also called for possibility of light sleet
this afternoon and tonight...and again Sunday night. Fortunately...
precipitation amounts are expected to remain on the light side due
to lack of strong upward motions. For now...low probability of precipitation and low quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts are expected this afternoon through Sunday night.
Light freezing rain looks possible early Monday and Monday night...
with very light amounts expected. Tuesday still looks to be the
warmest day of the forecast as dry westerly low-level flow prevails
ahead of Tuesday night cold front. Strongly baroclinic frontal
zone may assist in the development of light snow across northern
sections Tuesday night...with low snow probability of precipitation in mainly western
sections Wednesday and Wednesday night as positively-tilted middle-
level trough moves across the area. Thursday and beyond expected to
be dry with moderating temperatures.
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following