Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Aviation...
00z tafs...isolated to scattered showers will continue to affect the
terminals over the next few hours. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR
conditions with a passing shower...however VFR conditions appear more
likely to continue even in the showers and have reflected this in the
tafs. Expect much of the shower/thunderstorm activity to diminish
after sunset...with the better chances for lingering convection
remaining east of the terminals in association with stronger forcing
from a lead upper-level disturbance. Thus will omit any precipitation
mention from the tafs overnight...although a shower certainly cannot
be completely ruled out with the broader upper-level trough
approaching. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again
Sunday afternoon as daytime heating combines with the passing upper-
level trough to destabilize things. Outside of any showers or
storms...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty
south/southwest winds will diminish after sunset. A cold front will
be nearing kdht and kguy toward the end of the taf period...bringing
a wind shift to the northwest behind it.

Kb

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Discussion...
isolated showers and thunderstorms seen on radar at this time
expected to continue this evening. Have increased probability of precipitation along a
corridor from southwest to northeast along instability axis in
region where low-level moisture flux convergence expected to be
slightly higher.

Sunday morning probability of precipitation have been kept...but have trimmed same in central
sections...where upper- and lower-level forcing are expected to be
weak. Chance probability of precipitation have been retained Sunday afternoon as sharp middle-
level trough should generate ascent.

Have realigned Sunday evening probability of precipitation...now with highest probability of precipitation across
southeast half of forecast area ahead of expected vorticity maximum
in region of Richer moisture. Have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation
late Sunday night in eastern sections...where expected final
vorticity maximum encounters 850 mb cold front.

Monday through Wednesday morning have been kept dry. Inherited
Wednesday afternoon probability of precipitation in far eastern part of forecast area have
been expanded westward...where moisture ahead of dryline expected to
be positioned. Have likewise introduced probability of precipitation in east Wednesday
night. Remaining periods have been left dry. 03

Cockrell

Fire weather...
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible
on Wednesday across the western half of the panhandles...and on
Thursday across the far southwest part of the Texas Panhandle.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Friday and
Saturday across the western half of the panhandles. 03

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

08/11