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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
349 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Discussion...tonight through next Tuesday

No overwhelming changes were made to the forecast as uncertainty
continues to abound later in the period. One of the main sources of
uncertainty continues to be the tropics as ts Dolly in the western Gulf
and ts Norbert in the eastern Pacific will certainly contribute moisture
to the pattern eventually. These systems will also affect the overall
upper air pattern evolution in ways that will not be well modeled.

Tonight through Thursday...
precipitation chances will be minimal during this period. After the light
winds this afternoon...Wednesday and Thursday will be much breezier days as south-southwest
winds pick up.

Thursday night...
increased rain chances in the western OK Panhandle this period as models
have come into fair agreement with a cold front slipping in and Erly
upslope flow developing in advance of a weak shortwave.

Friday through Monday night...
tried very hard to pin down a time period or location where precipitation
chances will be highest but weak forcing in the presence of deep
moisture means convection will be difficult to forecast. Do think
most of the area will see rain at one time or another in this
period. Models seem to be congealing a bit better on temperatures
with near to slightly below normal highs expected.

Simpson
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 69 94 68 92 67 / 10 5 5 5 5
Beaver OK 71 99 73 96 68 / 10 10 5 5 20
Boise City OK 66 95 67 92 62 / 5 10 5 10 30
Borger Texas 72 97 71 96 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
Boys Ranch Texas 69 96 69 94 69 / 5 5 5 5 10
canyon Texas 68 93 67 92 66 / 5 5 5 5 5
Clarendon Texas 70 94 69 94 69 / 10 5 5 5 5
Dalhart Texas 66 96 66 93 64 / 5 5 5 5 20
Guymon OK 69 99 70 95 65 / 10 10 5 5 30
Hereford Texas 67 93 65 91 65 / 5 5 5 5 5
Lipscomb Texas 72 96 72 95 70 / 10 10 5 5 10
Pampa Texas 70 94 69 93 68 / 10 5 5 5 10
Shamrock Texas 72 94 71 94 69 / 10 5 5 5 5
Wellington Texas 74 95 73 96 71 / 10 5 5 5 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

99/09

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