Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
641 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014
Patchy fog/low clouds are quickly lifting at kama with VFR conditions
expected everywhere otherwise. Winds will be light and variable.
Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014/
upper trough exiting the panhandles this morning and all convection
has moved east of the forecast area. Subsidence behind the departing
upper trough will allow for some brief drying today after some
morning low clouds and fog through about 15z today. Northwesterly
flow aloft this afternoon through Saturday will result in a shortwave
trough tracking southeast out of the central and southern rockies by
00z Saturday with convection possibly propagating southeast into the
western sections of the forecast area by 06z Saturday and across much
of the forecast area through the day Saturday. Will introduce some
low end slight chance probability of precipitation tonight through Saturday for this possible
scenario and remove probability of precipitation today. Shortwave ridging will take place
late this weekend and then another shortwave trough pushing across
the panhandles Sunday night. Confidence low on any convection Sunday
night so will leave forecast dry for now. The NAM and to some extent
the European model (ecmwf) hint at possible precipitation Sunday night while the GFS remains
dry. Zonal upper flow early next week may allow for another shortwave
trough to track east out of the central rockies into the Central
Plains states. The GFS forecasting convection across the eastern
Oklahoma and the northeast Texas panhandles Monday night...while the
European model (ecmwf) dry. Will introduce slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across the
eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas panhandles Monday night.
Otherwise...dry forecast expected next week with above normal temperatures.
Texas...dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for the
following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Donley...