Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1234 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
for the 06z tafs...little change from earlier aviation afd reasoing.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Texas Panhandle. However...coverage
is expected to be sparse...and this precludes a mention of this
weather element in the terminal forecasts at this time. A surface
cold front will begin to impinge on the OK and far northern Texas pnhdls
towards the end of this forecast cycle...and this boundary will need to
be accounted for in later taf forecasts. Otherwise...VFR conditions are
anticipated through late Saturday evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 1136 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
isolated showers and thunderstorms over northestern nm and southeastern Colorado earlier this evening have
dissipated. Therefore...have removed probability of precipitation for OK Panhandle and far northwestern
Texas Panhandle for rest of tonight. Remaining forecast elements for tonight are
plausible. Updated products and grids out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 714 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
for the 00z tafs...isolated thunderstorms developing across far northestern nm...southeastern Colorado...
and parts of western and southwestern Kansas may not impact kguy or kdht this evening
before dissipating. Therefore...have continued to omit this possiblity
for this taf forecast cycle. Isolated thunderstorms may form again late Saturday
afternoon across parts of the OK Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle. However...
coverage is expected to be sparse. Therfore...decided not to mention
thunderstorms at kguy or kdht for that time period as well. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are anticipated at all terminal sites through late Saturday
Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
a significant pattern change and onset of cool/moist conditions next
week remains the focus of this forecast.
Currently...an agitated cumulus field is peculating in vicinity of Black
Mesa over the western Oklahoma Panhandle as weak/shallow instability
exists atop a deeply hot/dry boundary layer. Models continue to
suggest showers/storms may initiate there in the next few hours. If
more substantial convection develops...a risk of erratic/strong wind
gusts exist...but prospects for meaningful rainfall will likely be low.
The frontal boundary now settling over eastern Colorado/western
Kansas will sag southward across the northwestern panhandles late
Saturday...and will bring slightly better prospects for convection
north of the Canadian during what would otherwise be another hot day.
The middle/upper Air Ridge now centered over the southern High Plains
will shift westward and begin to amplify by Sunday/Monday. This will
support a gradual southward displacement of the anticipated cold
front...which will initially impact the panhandles by late Saturday
as mentioned...but very well may not push south of the region until
late Sunday night/early Monday. As it does...the stage will be set
for yet another middle Summer northwest flow episode. Thus rain chances
ramp up late Sunday with the main frontal push...and then will remain
intermittent during the week ahead as mountain convection propagates
southeastward. Timing the best rain chances remains difficult...but
models tend to suggest the passage of a notable shortwave trough
through the ambient northwesterly flow during the Tuesday/Wednesday
timeframe. None-the-less...this pattern appears to persist long
enough to support 40-50 percent probability of precipitation through at least late
Wednesday/early Thursday. Thus relatively cool/cloudy conditions and
some risk of heavy rain/flooding should be expected.
breezy southwesterly winds and hot/dry conditions are occurring
this afternoon. Yet widespread green and relatively moist fuels
preclude a significant wildland fire risk. Isolated thunderstorms
over the western Oklahoma Panhandle today/this evening and may result
in localized instances of dry lightning and breezy/erratic winds.
Otherwise...a notable weather chance will follow another hot/dry day
Saturday with the onset of more moist/cool conditions next week.