Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
535 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014
for the 12z tafs...the upper level low pressure system will continue
to advance eastward across the southern High Plains today...and will take the
clouds and light precipitation with it. North winds will gradually
become SW this evening. Overall...generally VFR conditions are
expected at all terminal sites through 12z Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014/
very active and much colder pattern shaping up for next week. Main
upper trough to push east across the panhandles today allowing for
the wintry precipitation across the eastern sections of the forecast
area to move out of the area and for skies to clear. Drier and
slightly warmer conditions Sunday ahead of the next strong cold front
and approaching upper low digging south out of the Pacific northwest
early next week. Surface low and cold front to push south across the
panhandles Sunday night and early Monday. Closed upper low to dig
south into Southern California by Wednesday and then slowly ejecting
east across the southwestern states and southern rockies by late next
week. Upper level support from this upper low elongated from west to
east across the Great Basin region and central rockies and across the
Central Plains states early next week.
Much colder air and the lift from the leading vorticity maximum should allow
for some light snow Monday and Monday night through Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Brief shortwave ridging Wednesday and Wednesday night
allowing for brief drying and not as cold conditions by Thursday as
cold surface high slides off to the east of the forecast area.
Another cold front to push through the panhandles the end of next
week. Chances for wintry precipitation return by Thursday night
through Friday night as the closed upper low slowly moves across the
southern rockies and across the panhandles by next weekend. Followed
the slower solution of the European model (ecmwf) in the extended periods.
Precipitation could possibly linger into next Saturday if the upper
low slows down more than currently forecast. Will end
precipitation...for now...by 12z Saturday with below normal temperatures
most of next week.