Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1142 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013
for the 06z tafs...light snow is diminishing from northwest to southeast across the
area. Only some flurries on occasion at the terminal sites for the
first few hours of the forecast cycle as the main shield of
precipitation has moved east and S of the taf locations. Ceilings in MVFR
category are developing and should remain that way much of the
period...with perhaps a trend towards VFR late Friday afternoon.
However...confidence is low on how ceilings will evolve in general so
amendments will be possible.
Previous discussion... /issued 747 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013/
will continue Winter Weather Advisory through Friday morning. Radar
trends continue to indicate fast moving bands of light snow moving
northeast from New Mexico and into the panhandles. Still do not
expect signficant accumulations and amounts should remain around one
inch or less. Main threat remains very cold temperatures and wind
chills that will fall to well below zero...especially before sunrise
Some minor tweaks will be made...but will generally keep forecast
Previous discussion... /issued 547 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013/
for the 00z tafs...a low confidence forecast continues...mainly with
respect to ceilings and visibilities. A light snow band is affecting kdht and
kguy with minimal impacts to kama. Have included some light snow for
first few hours of this cycle at kguy and kdht to account for this.
Ceilings should fall into MVFR category later this evening and tonight as
temperatures cool further and dewpoints rise a little. The threat of light
snow should diminish after 06z tonight. Due to low confidence in ceiling
and visibility forecasts...amendments will be possible this evening as trends
Previous discussion... /issued 244 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013/
cold continues to be the main story through the next week.
Tonight...drier air in the boundary layer continues to limit
accumulating snows across the region. Initial short wave trough will
propagate through the region overnight...bringing the last bit of
forcing and thus the last potential for any snow with this round.
Still looking at the primary hazard being dangerously low wind
Tomorrow through Saturday...cold air remains in place. Some flurries
are possible as the next upper level trough approaches...but with
still limited moisture...and limited lift until Saturday night...do
not expect anything more than trace snow amounts.
Sunday...models have continued to show the surface low tracking
across the panhandles through this period. Given the track of the
low...much of the Texas Panhandle could be in the warm sector this
day with highs near or just above freezing possible. The
downside is that the warm sector will also be the prime location for
the dry slot. However...most models are in relatively good agreement
that the Oklahoma Panhandle...and possibly the far northern Texas
Panhandle could remain in or near the cold sector...thus have a
slight chance to see snow as the trough slides across.
Monday through Thursday...models are more aggressive as compared to
yesterday/S runs in showing air mass modification...and some middle
level warm air advection through this period. This will help to for a
modest warming trend through the rest of the week.
very cold weather will help to keep relative humidity values above 30
percent for the next several days...precluding any elevated or
critical fire weather conditions.
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST Friday for the following
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST Friday for the following