Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1059 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Aviation...
for the 06z tafs...little change to previous aviation afd reasoning.
Thunderstorms are slowly diminishing across the area with mainly light
showers near taf sites for the first few hours of this forecast cycle
based on current radar imagery. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop later Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence
has improved in this scenario occurring so have mentioned thunderstorms at
all terminal sites late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

Andrade

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 650 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Aviation...
for the 00z tafs...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting the area
will begin to slowly dissipate this evening. Have included mention
of thunderstorms at all terminal sites for the first few hours of
this forecast cycle based on current radar imagery. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop later Monday afternoon.
However...confidence is low as to whether any taf sites will be
impacted Monday afternoon...so have decided not to mention for this
forecast issuance.

Andrade

Previous discussion... /issued 406 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Discussion...
state of the forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecast. The upper trough continues its eastward progression
towards the Baja California peninsula this afternoon while the front left
quadrant of the associated jet streak is supporting convective
development across the eastern New Mexico plains and western
panhandles. This convection will have modest instability (500-1500
j/kg) to work with but deep layer shear is very weak. This should
keep convection disorganized (pulse type), but an isolated severe wind
gust can't be ruled out given a significant dry sub-cloud layer.

Precipitation chances increase during the day Monday as the influence of
the upper trough couples with the jet streak. Heavy rainfall enters
the forecast as precipitable water values will also be increasing above
climatology. These factors persist Monday and Tuesday before the
system ejects to the northeast Wednesday. There is some potential for
flash flooding, but models have shown that the best precipitable water values are
out of phase of the best forcing. This would lead to more localize
flooding issues rather that widespread flash flooding. For now will
hold off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch until these factors
sync.

Wednesday through Friday show the potential for afternoon/evening
convection along the dryline. Models surge the dryline eastward into
the eastern panhandles and western Oklahoma, but with recent
rainfall the dryline could setup further west than shown. Have
extended mentioned probability of precipitation slightly further west than shown in models.

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations