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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
622 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Aviation...
for the 00z tafs...thunderstorms are moving across the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles. Have thunderstorms in the vicinity in at kama for the next couple of
hours. Think storms should stay east of kdht/kguy although will watch
them and ammend if necessary. After storms move out of the area early
this evening VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will die off this
evening before the pick up again tomorrow out of the southwest.

Moulton

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/

Short term...tonight and Friday
afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows the plume of monsoonal
moisture over the panhandles and similar to the past couple of
days...the position of a surface trough from around Guymon to Dalhart
will help to trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/evening. Strong diurnal heating will contribute to the
lift necessary to generate these storms so expect any storms to
diminish after sunset. This is also reflected in the several of the
high res models. Weak shear and upper dynamics will greatly limit the
severe potential of these storms but cannot rule out a strong wind
gust with the stronger storms given the dry sub cloud layer. Otherwise
expect another mild night across the panhandles with lows ranging
from the middle 60s to the lower 70s.

Friday looks to be pretty much of a repeat of today with the area
remaining under the influence of southwest upper flow with the upper
ridge over the southeastern U.S and mean upper troughing over the
Pacific northwest. The surface trough axis will remain over the area
and with the moisture plume overhead and above normal temperatures once
again climbing well into the 90s...expect showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the afternoon. This time a middle-level upper trough will
lift northeast out of Southern California. This will provide a little better
lift for storm development late in the afternoon and evening. Storms
coverage will be further to the east and continue after sunset.

Long term...Saturday through Wednesday
have not made too many changes to the extended forecast as the upper
pattern will remain nearly the same...with the upper ridge remaining
well east of the area and upper troughing over the western Continental U.S.. the
upper trough will lift across the northern rockies and the northern
plains toward Sunday. A weak cold front associated with this system
will push south...but looks to stall north of the Ama County Warning Area. The
southern extension of this upper trough will gradually move across
the Central Plains by around midweek. This will push a stronger cold
front through the area by around Wednesday. Before this
occurs...monsoonal moisture remaining overhead and the presence of a
surface trough will maintain low chance thunderstorm chances over the
weekend and early in the new work week. Cooler temperatures along with an
increase in precipitation chances may accompany this front.

Clk

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

19/09

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