Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
533 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
for the 00z tafs...a cold front will move across the terminal sites
late Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Some high level
clouds are also anticipated. No precipitation during the next 24 hours.
Overall...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through late
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/
no major changes have been made to the forecast. One more warm day
on Wednesday before effects of Wednesday afternoon cold front bring
maxima back to values near climatology on Thursday. Notably cooler
conditions expected Friday through Sunday with daily maxima mostly
in the 30s.
Dry conditions prevail through Thursday evening...with clouds and
isentropic lift increasing thereafter through Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile...deep moisture is set in an upward motion as southwest
middle- and upper-level flow becomes more divergent and energized. Have
continued with hefty probability of precipitation Friday through Saturday...with low probability of precipitation
Saturday night. Passage of middle-level trough keeps later periods dry.
Have made slight adjustments to precipitation type forecast.
Southeastern sections still look to remain all liquid through
Saturday...but have added possibility of snow for Saturday night.
Northwestern sections still look to be all snow by Friday
afternoon...but have brought all snow into southwestern Texas
Panhandle Friday night and Saturday. Still remains difficult to
pin down large swath encompassing remaining sections...but have
brought transition to all snow through western half of forecast
area Saturday night. Current snowfall totals of one to four inches
are forecast northwest of a line from Hereford to Borger to Beaver.
Further refinements will be made as system becomes better sampled
by upper air network.