Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1226 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
VFR conditions will persist through 25/18z. Light south to
southwesterly winds and minimal passing high clouds are expected.
Southwesterly breezes will increase just beyond the 25/18z scope of
this taf cycle.
Previous discussion... /issued 940 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
patchy morning fog is dissipating with visibilities increasing
upwards of 3-4 miles. This trend should continue with sunny skies
expected 15 to 16z. Rest of forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
The large scale pattern that has been discussed over the past few
days has remained unchanged. No significant/impactful weather is
anticipated through the forecast period. Of immediate concern is
patchy fog development across mainly the eastern portion of the area
tonight. Have added patchy fog in the grids through about 14z.
There are a few targets of opportunity for improvement on the
consensus through the weekend but these will result in only minor
adjustments. One is timing of cirrus on Sunday ahead of a subtle
lead shortwave trough which may have some affect on high
temperatures albeit very little. Sunday will be the third day of
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.
Confidence has increased on upper trough timing and amplitude early
next week. An associated cold front should enter the north Monday
afternoon and clear the forecast area Monday night. Limited moisture
will result in a dry forecast with the frontal passage but moistening
of middle levels closer to the middle/upper trough axis may be just enough
for a few light showers across mainly the northeast third of the
forecast area as it crosses the area early Tuesday. Confidence is not
overly high in measurable precipitation given quite dry low levels
and amounts will likely be only a few hundredths if it happens at
all. More significant rains will be confined to areas further east
into Oklahoma and central Texas where moisture advection will be
more extensive and prolonged ahead of this system.
Two other items of interest in this forecast are pre and Post
frontal winds Monday and Tuesday and cooler temperatures behind the
front. The general pattern would not favor a significant wind event.
We will see how the strength/geometry of the trough evolves between
now and then but as is depicted at this point Post frontal surface
pressure rises and/or winds at the top of the mixing layer really
would not support winds over about 20-25 miles per hour.
Medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance begins to show
disagreement toward middle week. The general theme toward the end of the
long term period is for upper level ridging to return along with
above normal temperatures.