Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1046 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
06z taf cycle
Upper high over the eastern panhandles will slide off to the south
and east through Thursday as an upper trough approaches from The Four
Corners region and the central and southern rockies. VFR conditions
are expected through 06z Friday...however MVFR ceilings will be
possible between 10z and 15z or 16z Thursday at the Amarillo and
Guymon taf sites. Convection possible at all three taf sites through
the taf forecast period...however confidence too low to mention at
this time. Mainly northeast to southeast winds 5 to 15 knots through
Previous discussion... /issued 643 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
00z taf cycle
Isolated or scattered convection possible at all three taf sites
until around 04z to 06z Thursday. Otherwise...VFR conditions are
expected through 00z Friday except for some possible MVFR ceilings at
the Amarillo taf site between 04z to 06z Thursday and 14z to 16z
Thursday. Winds will be light...5 to 10 knots or less...and mainly
from the northeast to southeast.
Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
a few thunderstorms may form across the southeast half of the
Texas Panhandle due to the instability from the heat of the day.
But believe the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight will be across the northwest half of the County Warning Area closer to
the upper level dynamics and subtropical moisture plume.
An upper level short wave trough over central New Mexico is
expected to slowly lift north and northeast and then it will
slide eastward across our northern County Warning Area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. So a better chance of rain will be found across
these areas during this time frame.
Upper flow becomes more northwesterly Friday and beyond...so daily
chances of mountain convection heading this way is in the cards
through the end of this forecast.