Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1148 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
VFR conditions should prevail. There is an outside chance for a
thunderstorm at any of the taf sites tomorrow afternoon but will not
include yet at this time as chances are pretty low. South-southwest winds will
not relax much during this period.
Previous discussion... /issued 639 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
A few showers could affect kdht over the next hour...but otherwise dry
conditions are expected at the taf sites overnight through midday
Thursday. A few more showers or storms could affect taf sites late in
the period ie tmrw afteroon...but chances appear too low to include
at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 342 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
Short term...tonight and Thursday
an upper ridge has started to push east of the area...and is
currently over the southeastern U.S. Current water vapor satellite
imagery shows the eastern edge of the monsoonal moisture plume over
the western half of the Ama County Warning Area. A surface trough located over
southeastern Colorado and eastern nm has maintained breezy southerly winds
across the area. Current radar reflectivity imagery indicates
isolated showers developing near this trough axis and southwesterly
upper flow will help to bring in any storms that form on the higher
terrain in nm. Like previous days...hot temperatures well in the 90s will
also contribute to storm development through this evening. Any storms
should end late this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise expect another mild night for the area with lows in the middle
60s to the lower 70s.
The upper ridge will remain over the southeastern U.S.
Thursday...leaving the panhandles under the influence of
southwesterly upper flow. This will keep monsoonal moisture over the
area while the position of a surface trough nearby and strong diurnal
heating can result in storms to develop in the afternoon through the
late evening hours. Like today weak upper support and wind shear will
negate the severe weather threat. Still forecast soundings indicate
dry air near the surface so the potential exists for strong wind
gusts with any of the stronger storms that develop.
Long term...Friday through Tuesday
southwest upper flow will continue into at least into the weekend as
the area remains in between the upper ridge over the MS River Valley and
mean upper troughing over the western Continental U.S.. daily low thunderstorm
chances will exist every afternoon/evening through Sunday as a surface
trough will remain in the vicinity. The main longwave western Continental U.S.
Upper trough will lift toward the northern plains Sunday while a
shortwave trough associated with this system moves across the Central
Plains. This may push a cold front into the area toward Monday
morning although details in this are unclear at this time. If this
occurs then thunderstorm chances may increase Monday. The longwave
upper trough is forecast to move across the Central Plains by around
midweek and push another cold front across the area. Uncertainty
currently exists on if this front will usher in a much welcome cool
down and an uptick in the potential for showers and thunderstorms.