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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
516 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Discussion...
main weather concerns for today are the critical fire weather
conditions /details in fire weather section below/ and a slight
chance for thunderstorms to develop again over the eastern
panhandles. Upper level support increases throughout the day in the
form of strengthening westerly flow and falling heights...and a leeside
trough will develop and strengthen north of the panhandles. The
position and strength of the trough and its associated weak low level
convergence will be a major factor for the possibility of convection
to develop /as it is for the fire weather concerns/. Strong southwest to
west downslope flow will attempt to push the surface trough to our
east..but have opted to maintain the slight chance probability of precipitation over the
eastern panhandles as meteorological reasoning remains similar to
Tuesday...though dew points may be a bit lower. Surface temperatures
will warm well into the upper 80s and low 90s and reduce concerns for
a cap...and enough shear and instability can be realized to support
isolated strong to severe storms if convection does develop again.

Temperatures over the Oklahoma and far northern Texas Panhandle will
be cooler behind a weak cold front on Thursday. A stronger cold
front arrives Thursday night and brings a slight chance for showers
to the Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles Thursday night and
Friday morning...though the base of the trough and best forcing will
remain just to our north. High temperatures across the panhandles
will be in the middle 50s to low 60s on Friday...at or slightly below
average for early April. Upper level ridging and west to
southwesterly flow develop on Saturday and persist into early next
week. Above normal temperatures will return along with dry conditions
and fire weather concerns.

Elsenheimer

&&

Fire weather...
critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon across the western and central portions of the panhandles.
The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a red flag warning. Relative
humidity values will fall to 8 to 15 percent...and temperatures of 20
degrees above average are expected this afternoon. Some uncertainty
with the 20ft winds...still could be marginal with the position and
strength of a surface trough developing north of the panhandles. At
any rate...the strongest winds will likely occur in the late
afternoon to early evening hours and expect several locations will
meet the criteria. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms over
the eastern panhandles this afternoon. However...if this area does
not reach the forecasted higher relative humidity values...this area
could also see elevated to critical fire weather conditions. On
Thursday...southwest to west winds will shift northerly...and elevated
to critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop again by
afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the southwestern
Texas Panhandle as this looks to be the area with the best potential
for meeting critical fire weather conditions. A cold front moves
through the panhandles on Friday...bringing a brief reprieve of fire
weather concerns as the potential for at least elevated fire weather
conditions returns on Saturday and remains entrenched through early
next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 90 49 81 42 59 / 10 10 5 5 5
Beaver OK 90 48 70 41 59 / 20 20 5 20 10
Boise City OK 88 43 71 35 54 / 5 5 5 20 10
Borger Texas 91 52 79 43 60 / 10 10 5 10 5
Boys Ranch Texas 93 47 80 41 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
canyon Texas 90 49 82 42 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
Clarendon Texas 90 51 86 46 62 / 20 20 5 5 5
Dalhart Texas 89 44 77 38 57 / 5 5 5 10 5
Guymon OK 88 46 72 39 58 / 10 10 5 20 10
Hereford Texas 89 46 83 40 60 / 5 5 0 5 5
Lipscomb Texas 89 52 76 44 60 / 20 20 5 10 5
Pampa Texas 90 49 79 42 58 / 10 10 5 10 5
Shamrock Texas 90 53 87 48 62 / 20 20 5 10 5
Wellington Texas 91 57 89 52 65 / 20 20 5 10 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...red flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...
Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...red flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.



&&

$$

02/18

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