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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
631 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Aviation...
brief fog possible this morning across southern and western parts of
forecast area...but do not expect visibilities to drop into MVFR
range. Southwest surface winds expected to increase after sunrise...
with gusts into the 20 to 25 knots range most of the day. Apart from
some afternoon cumulus clouds near kama...high- and middle-level clouds
will be the only sky cover of note at all of the terminals. Southwest
surface winds expected to prevail this evening and overnight. VFR
forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014/

Discussion...
confidence for a widespread rain event associated with the remains
of tropical cyclone Odile continues to increase. Currently...the most
likely timeframe for high-impact weather across the panhandles appears
to be Friday/Friday night/Saturday.

A massive sub-tropical moisture plume aloft continues to encompass
much of the southwestern U.S. In advance of Odile...now centered over
the northern Gulf of California. Trends in vapor imagery show a
northeastward motion of Odile...now heading toward southeastern
Arizona/New Mexico.

A band of showers from east-central New Mexico over the South Plains
is depicted by nwp to generally persist in some form or fashion
through the next 24 to 36 hours. Thus isolated /20 percent/ gridded
probability of precipitation will generally be limited to areas south of Interstate 40 until
forcing/ascent tied to the approach of the evolving remnants of
Odile begin to spread eastward over the Texas High Plains in earnest
Thursday night/early Friday. Medium range solutions have remained in
good agreement for subsequent runs during the past 24 hours...showing
the core remnants of Odile translating over central or northeastern
New Mexico in vicinity of the northwestern panhandles generally
between 12z Friday and 12z Saturday. Point forecast soundings suggest
precipitable water values around 1.8 inches as ample sub-tropical moisture streams
over the region. Have continued to increase probability of precipitation toward 60-70
percent...with the highest values beginning over the western Texas
Panhandle during the day Friday...then translating eastward across
the region Friday night. 40 to 60 percent gridded probability of precipitation were retained
Saturday...when models continue to show lingering sub-tropical
moisture being forced and ultimately displaced south and eastward by
a passing front. With confidence in this scenario
increasing...widespread mean storm total rainfall may range from 1 to
3 inches across the panhandles as depicted by wpc quantitative precipitation forecast. A flood and/or
flash flood threat may develop and will be closely monitored.

Medium range solutions additionally have trended toward the approach
of a shortwave trough at the beginning of next work week. This
feature may provide yet another chance of precipitation.

Lindley

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 79 58 82 59 78 / 20 20 20 30 60
Beaver OK 92 63 91 64 84 / 5 5 10 10 40
Boise City OK 88 58 84 60 79 / 10 10 10 20 60
Borger Texas 86 65 86 65 77 / 10 10 20 20 60
Boys Ranch Texas 81 62 82 63 77 / 20 10 20 30 60
canyon Texas 79 62 80 62 78 / 20 20 30 30 60
Clarendon Texas 82 64 83 63 80 / 20 20 20 30 60
Dalhart Texas 87 60 84 62 80 / 10 10 20 30 60
Guymon OK 91 61 89 63 77 / 10 5 10 10 50
Hereford Texas 78 61 79 62 79 / 20 20 30 40 60
Lipscomb Texas 89 63 88 64 81 / 10 5 10 10 50
Pampa Texas 83 61 83 61 77 / 10 10 20 20 50
Shamrock Texas 87 64 87 63 79 / 10 10 20 20 50
Wellington Texas 85 67 85 66 80 / 20 20 20 20 50

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

03/10

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