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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1053 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Aviation...

An uptick in rain showers should occur later tonight and the tafs try
to reflect timing but amendments will need to be made throughout the
night to the weather group. Low confidence forecast with ceilings and
resulting category. Have started off optimistic at kdht following
recent ob trends but IFR ceilings will probably return overnight. At
kama and kguy IFR ceilings should persist through the night and much
of the day with improvement to MVFR by afternoon or evening.
Conditions should improve at kguy before they do at kama

Brb

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015/

Discussion...
upper level low over southern New Mexico will slowly move east
northeast across West Texas and into western Oklahoma by Tuesday
morning. Several boundaries across the southwest Texas Panhandle
should help develop convection. Several upper level minor vorticity maxes
will also rotate northeast from the upper low this afternoon and
overnight. Upper level diffluence will also be present over the
panhandles. With all of this in mind...believe that the panhandles
may see some severe thunderstorms...but also heavy rain will be a
threat. Have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch over
about the eastern half of the panhandles valid from now through
Monday afternoon. This area stands the best chance of heavy rain-
producing thunderstorms. The rain will slowly decrease Monday night
into Tuesday morning as the upper low pulls away from the
panhandles.

The panhandles will dry out and warm up through the end of the
week. A positively tilted upper trough will traverse the plains
Wednesday through Friday. There is an outside chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the north on Saturday as a weak disturbance
tries to impinge on the upper ridge.

Hydrology...
rainfall may exceed flash flood guidance especially in the
eastern panhandles...so will have to watch for the possibility
of some flooding issues. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain with
locally heavier amounts will be possible.

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...gray...
Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following
zones: Beaver...Texas.



&&

$$

17/11

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