Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
610 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015
any thunderstorms should stay northwest of the taf sites tonight and
again through late afternoon Tuesday. Skies should remain VFR.
Southerly winds around 10 knots will increase and get gusty by late
morning on Tuesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/
an upper ridge will prevail across the panhandles and West Texas
tonight through Tuesday...and will then begin moving east away from
the panhandles Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Isolated
convection across the western and northwestern Texas panhandles
tonight...and mainly across the western sections of the panhandles
Tuesday on the western periphery of the upper ridge. Shortwave trough
will approach the forecast area from the west this evening through
Tuesday helping to initiate any convection. Drier conditions expected
Wednesday and Thursday as subsidence prevails behind the departing
upper trough and as the upper ridge breaks down and moves off to the
east. Another upper trough approaches the panhandles by Thursday
night and Friday...and other upper trough approaches from the west by
late Saturday into Sunday.
Frontal boundary moves into the central rockies and Central Plains
states by Tuesday and Tuesday night and then stalls just north of the
forecast area. Surface low develops on the front over the Lee of The
Rockies Tuesday with a surface trough extending south of the low into
eastern New Mexico and the western panhandles. This surface trough
will meander across eastern New Mexico and the western panhandles
through late this week and the upcoming weekend which will help to
initiate isolated to scattered convection across mainly the western
half of the forecast area late this week...spreading east across the
remainder of the forecast area this weekend.