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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
159 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Discussion...

No significant changes were needed to the forecast. Subsidence from
expanding upper ridge across the western half of the country will
keep our region dry today. Some cumulus may form later this afternoon
during peak heating/mixing. Southwesterly winds will strengthen
later tonight as pressure gradient tightens in response to a
shortwave trough that will move from the northern rockies into the
northern plains later this evening. This shortwave will force a weak
cold front southward into the northern portions of the areas.
Details on timing and placement are uncertain and a further
southward push may occur if cold pool generation from convection to
our north is extensive late Wednesday.

Slight to low chances of convection were retained Thursday through
Friday night as flow becomes more northwesterly and a series of
shortwave troughs moves through. Temporal and spatial details are
still not very clear so was not able to add much more detail to the
previous forecast. Subsequent forecasts should be able to better
define periods of highest chances. One of the more significant
shortwaves should pass through by early Saturday with middle level
height rises in its wake as western Continental U.S. Upper ridge shifts
eastward again. Kept Saturday dry because of this. Medium range
models diverge significantly by the beginning of the week. European model (ecmwf) is
much more amplified with a trough over the northern plains and
slightly further west with the upper ridge. With stronger
northwesterly flow in the European model (ecmwf) precipitation chances are higher
than the GFS. Given uncertainties and general flow pattern
potentially favoring terrain induced convection to enter at least
the western portion of the area next week...introduced near climatology
precipitation probabilities for Monday and Tuesday.

Brb/hl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 67 94 69 88 66 / 0 10 30 30 30
Beaver OK 71 98 70 91 67 / 0 20 10 30 40
Boise City OK 67 94 65 88 63 / 0 20 30 30 40
Borger Texas 72 98 72 92 69 / 0 10 30 30 30
Boys Ranch Texas 67 97 69 91 66 / 0 10 30 30 40
canyon Texas 66 93 68 90 65 / 0 5 30 30 30
Clarendon Texas 69 94 70 90 69 / 0 5 30 30 30
Dalhart Texas 67 96 67 90 64 / 0 20 30 30 40
Guymon OK 70 97 70 91 66 / 0 20 20 30 40
Hereford Texas 66 93 68 90 66 / 0 5 30 30 30
Lipscomb Texas 71 98 71 91 67 / 0 10 20 30 30
Pampa Texas 68 94 70 90 66 / 0 10 30 30 30
Shamrock Texas 70 96 71 91 68 / 0 5 20 20 30
Wellington Texas 71 95 73 92 71 / 0 5 20 20 30

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

17/10

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