Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
655 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
Aviation... /for the 12z tafs/
Complicated forecast in the short term with departing mesoscale
convective vortex. Current observation do not match short term guidance with
regards to wind as a result. There will be a period of light
northerly or variable winds early this morning before winds
strengthen from the southeast this afternoon. A period of MVFR or IFR
stratus will impact the three terminals early this morning followed
by a return to VFR through the afternoon. Intermittent showers will
continue into the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and early evening as instability increases.
Previous discussion... /issued 444 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
deep...rich moisture in place across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles...as evidenced by 850 mb dewpoints in the 10 to 12
degree range and 700 mb dewpoints in the 2 to 5 degree range.
Moderately strong southeast low-level flow today will keep moisture
sustained. Widespread thunderstorms expected today and tonight...
owing to moderately strong dynamics emerging from middle-level trough.
Locally heavy rains are expected. Some severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and this evening...particularly if any
clearing develops...which is most likely to occur across western
sections. However...morning clouds and rain seem likely to hold
temperatures in the middle- to upper-60s today.
Wednesday looks to be a recovery day...with westerly low-level flow
minimizing thunderstorm chances...with slight chance probability of precipitation kept only
for eastern sections where instability axis expected to linger.
Probability of precipitation included for all sections Thursday...as strong southwest flow
aloft continues...with dryline setting up again. Eastern sections
continue to be most favored for thunderstorms Thursday and
Thunderstorm probability of precipitation continue through Saturday night. On Sunday...
closed middle-level low lifts northeast...allowing dry air to arrive.