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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1115 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions to prevail through this taf issuance. A surface trough
has already shifted winds at kguy out of the north with kdht soon to
follow. This shift will be delayed at kama until 11z. Behind the
trough winds will remain light at or below 10kt and will slowly veer around
the dial over the course of the day. There is a chance for scattered
convection across the eastern panhandles...but should this convection
develop it will stay well east of the terminals.


Previous discussion... /issued 613 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

VFR conditions to prevail for this taf issuance. Gusty southwest winds
have already begun to diminish at the terminals with kguy already
reporting below 10kts. This downward trend on winds is expected to
continue with kdht and kama dropping shortly after 00z. A surface
trough is expected to slide across the combined panhandles this
evening and overnight hours to shift winds out of a northerly
direction. Speeds will remain at or below 10kt through the overnight hours
and into tomorrow morning. By midday Tuesday winds will start to veer
around the dial and be out of the easterly direction by the end of
this forecast cycle.

Previous discussion... /issued 410 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Short term...tonight and Tuesday
veil of high clouds continue to stream overhead this afternoon in
advance of an upper-level low near Baja California California. A surface trough
over southwestern Kansas lead to breezy southwest winds across the
area this afternoon. Expect wind speeds to drop off after sunset this
evening as this trough slides off to the southeast. Overnight lows
will be similar to yesterday...ranging from the low 40s to the low

The upper low will begin to eject to the northeast Tuesday but will
weaken as it moves into West Texas. Although upper forcing will be
weak...strong diurnal heating can lead to thunderstorms to develop
along and east of a dryline that will move into the eastern Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandle in the afternoon. In addition low-level moisture
will begin to flow back into West Texas Tuesday beneath cooler middle-
level temperatures. However confidence in storm development is low
given the nwp model guidance and ttu WRF display any convection that
develops south and east of the Ama County Warning Area where the best lift
and moisture will be. Despite the model guidance output...still
maintained probability of precipitation over the southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle.
Inverted-v sounding profiles indicate any storms will be high based
with strong wind gusts as the main threats. Modest deep layer shear
will limit storm organization suggesting storms will be widely
scattered...if they develop at all.

Long term...Wednesday through Sunday
well above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday as the
upper flow backs further out of the west. Breezy downsloping winds
will push temperatures well into the 80s with a few locations tagging
the 90 degree mark Wednesday. Similar to Tuesday...a dryline will mix
east in the afternoon. Nwp model guidance differ on the placement of
the dryline where the GFS mixes it into Oklahoma while the
European model (ecmwf)...NAM...and sref hang it across the eastern Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles. Middle-level westerly flow strengthens leading to a surface
trough to deepen over the western High Plains. This can encourage
breezy southwest winds over much of the panhandles...raising fire
weather concerns. Have gone and inserted slight chance probability of precipitation over the
eastern panhandles thinking the dryline will hang up in this location
and strong diurnal heating triggering a few storms Wednesday evening.

Cooler conditions are anticipated by the end of the week as an upper-
level disturbance slides across the northern plains. This will send a
cold front through the area Thursday. High temperatures will cool
back into the 70s over much of the area although a surge of cooler
air will knock highs back even further on good Friday. Rising heights
under upper ridging and southerly surface flow indicate temperatures
rebounding back into the 70s in time for Easter Sunday.

Fire weather...
elevated fire weather conditions will continue until early this
evening across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern and western
Texas Panhandle. Well above average temperatures on Tuesday will
result in minimum relative humidity values to fall to around 15 to
20 percent over the western and central Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
However neither elevated or critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated as 20 foot winds are expected to be at or under 10 miles per hour.
In addition scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southeastern
half of the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening. Elevated to
possibly critical fire weather conditions are possible over much of the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles Wednesday due to the combination of high
fire danger...erc values above 50...breezy southwest winds...and
minimum relative humidity values around 10 to 15 percent. A dryline
will mix into the eastern panhandles...possibly triggering a few
thunderstorms in this area Wednesday evening.



Ama watches/warnings/advisories...




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