Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1117 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014
for the 06z tafs...VFR conditions to begin the period...with MVFR
ceilings expected to develop by early Thursday morning at all sites.
At kguy...there is high enough confidence for light rain showers
between about 09z and 15z. Wind speeds overnight will be around 20
kts with the potential for gusts to 35 kts especially at kdht.
Previous discussion... /issued 721 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/
for the 00z tafs...VFR conditions and northeasterly winds to start at
all sites. At kguy...have the highest confidence in rain showers
impacting the taf site...so have included -shra to accompany the
period of MVFR ceilings. There is a chance for ceilings to dip to IFR
At kdht and kama...a later development of low clouds is
expected...with MVFR ceilings impacting kdht by 10z and kama by 13z.
Wind speeds should be strongest at kdht overnight...with wind gusts
of 30 to 40 kts possible. At kama and kguy...wind speeds will still
be strong and gust to around 25 to 30 kts overnight. At all
sites...wind speeds will ease up after 18z Thursday.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/
a pre-frontal surface trough continues to March across the Texas
Panhandle. Behind the trough, winds have switched around to the
north which has slowed the warming potential across western Oklahoma
and northwestern Texas Panhandle. The cold front is still slowly
making its way across southern Colorado and Kansas. A shortwave
remains on track to move across the panhandles later this evening
and overnight and bring a chance for showers behind the cold front.
Overnight lows will remain above freezing so any precipitation that occurs
should be in the form of all rain. Precipitation chances remain largely
unchanged with the highest chances across the Oklahoma and northern
Texas panhandles while the lowest remain across the southern and
western Texas Panhandle. Precipitation will come to an end Thursday
afternoon as the shortwave moves east of the area. The combination
of the cooler Post-frontal airmass and being cloudy for the majority
of the day will hold daytime high temperatures in the middle to upper
Friday remains dry as brief upper level ridging builds over the
panhandles. Surface winds will also return to a southwestern
orientation to allow temperatures to warm into the 70s area wide.
But another upper low will lift northeastward from southern Arizona
Friday afternoon into Sunday and bring another round of precipitation
chances for the weekend. Weak instability will also allow some
rumbles of thunder Saturday and Sunday. No severe weather is
expected at this time.
Ridging will slowly build across the panhandles starting Monday to
bring a return to dry and warm conditions.
neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are expected
for the next 7 days due to relative humidities remaining above 20