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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
501 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014

Aviation...
a wide range of flight categories across the panhandles for the start
of the 12z taf issuance. Lowest category GOES to kama with LIFR
conditions as early morning showers begin to move east of the
terminal. The departure has allowed ceilings and visbi to drop
slightly. Kdht follows closely with IFR conditions however...kdht is
near the clearing line of upper level clouds which has allowed the
lower deck to expand/lower. Would not be surprised to see a drop to
LIFR within the first hour or two of the taf issuance followed by gradual
improvement. Kguy is the best off with MVFR conditions but is right
on the fence between MVFR and IFR. As the upper trough moves eastward
early this morning can not rule out a brief drop to IFR.

The first 6 hours of the taf issuance should see improvement at each
terminal to MVFR/VFR. Given the amount of low level moisture across
the southern Texas Panhandle...kama may stay at MVFR through the
daylight hours. Kdht and kguy will have the best chances to reach VFR
around noon.

Overnight we could see another round of low ceilings/visbi to impact
the terminals given ample low level moisture situated across the
panhandles.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 412 am CST Friday Dec 19 2014/

Discussion...
areas of fog expected across Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this
morning...but do not anticipate dense fog to develop. Light rain
showers detected by kama 88d at this time expected to produce
isolated to scattered measurable rainfall amounts this morning
across southeast half of forecast area. Expect all precipitation
to end across panhandles this morning. Persistent cloud cover
expected to hold temperatures below climatology again today.

Late night and early morning fog expected again tonight and
Saturday...mainly across southeast half of forecast area. Expect
earlier clearing on Saturday...allowing maximum temperatures to rise
into the lower- to middle-50s across most of the area. Slightly warmer
conditions expected on Sunday.

North winds on Monday behind weak cold front not expected to hold
temperatures down...except in northwest where more clouds are
expected. Cooler conditions expected on Tuesday as flow aloft
becomes more meridional and northerly surface winds allow cooler
air to move in.

Moderating temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday as middle-level
flow trends to zonal. Have increased maxima and winds on Thursday
as downslope flow ahead of strong cold front expected.

Cockrell

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

14/03

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