Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
543 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016

Aviation...
for the 00z tafs...VFR conditions are expected to continue through
late Monday afternoon.

Andrade

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 228 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016/

Discussion...
latest surface observations show northerly winds up to around
15 to 20 miles per hour behind a weak cold front and slightly cooler
temperatures than 24 hours prior. On the synoptic scale a
broadening/deepening trough extended from the upper Midwest into the
Central Plains and was progressing southeastward. The combination of
surface pressure gradient between deep south Texas high and Great
Lakes low and relatively deep mixing tomorrow afternoon will result
in windy across the northeast half of the area...possibly
approaching Wind Advisory criteria.

As the trough continues eastward through middle week middle level height
rises will occur. Temperatures should warm significantly in
response. High temperatures in the 60s are expected Tuesday and many
locations should reach 70 on Wednesday. Another weak shortwave and
cold front will move through Thursday bringing slightly cooler but
still above normal temperatures. The upper ridge in the west will
deamplify and move east through the weekend. By Sunday medium range
guidance diverges on features within the upper flow pattern. GFS and
European model (ecmwf) show an approaching shortwave but differ in the degree of
amplification and have slightly different timing. Dry weather and
above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of
the forecast period.

Brb

Fire weather...
clear skies and afternoon heating/mixing into fast flow aloft should
allow for sustained 20 foot winds of 15 miles per hour or greater across roughly
the eastern half of the panhandles. There is some uncertainty on
minimum relative humidity values during the afternoon...but based on
forecast soundings and the depth of mixing shown...minimum relative
humidity values will fall to between 15 and 20 percent Monday
afternoon across mainly the eastern two columns of counties in the
Texas Panhandle and also Beaver County in the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Several days of dry weather have resulted in favorable fuels for
rapid fire growth. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop.
Beyond tomorrow...temperatures will be warmer than normal and minimum
relative humidity values could fall to near elevated fire weather
thresholds...but winds will be much lighter limiting the threat. If
winds are stronger than currently expected on Wednesday
afternoon...elevated fire weather criteria may be at least approached
across the western portions of the panhandles. We will continue to
monitor trends.

Brb

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations